新一轮农村利率改革成效与经济解释——闽东地区调查与垄断市场分析

农村金融市场垄断背景下，新一轮农村利率改革并没有达到扩大农村信贷的目的，反而加大了农村的融资成本。原因在于：利率浮动范围扩大后，并没有形成农村信贷利率的市场定价机制，农信社只是简单地将信贷价格一浮到顶，以赚取更高的垄断利润。对福建东部两县(市)的调查显示，新一轮农村利率改革的成效并未达到政策设计意图。其原因可以用垄断市场结构下垄断定价与最优利率理论解释。真正建立起农村“两部门垂直合作型”金融组织体系，打破农村金融垄断，才能有效解决农村地区融资困境。     

P2P平台的信息不对称问题国外研究综述

信息不对称问题是困扰P2P平台发展的主要问题之一。论文重点梳理了国外学者P2P平台的信息不对称问题的研究以及由信息不对称问题引发的风险,之后针对P2P平台信息不对称问题,论文重点梳理了国外学者针对该问题的解决方案———“集体信贷”模式。最后,论文提出缓解P2P平台解决信息不对称问题的政策建议。     

Assessing the Time-Varying Interest Rate Sensitivity of Real Estate Securities

Abstract

This paper examines the sensitivity of real estate securities to changes in both market and central bank interest rates. It is commonly viewed that the traded real estate market is one of the industry sectors most susceptible to interest rate movements. This is due to traditional high levels of borrowing, the impact of rate changes on property yields and indirectly upon occupational demand and thus rental income. The results which are the first to examine the UK sector, highlight the impact of interest rates on UK property companies, in relation to both returns and volatility. The paper also illustrates that this sensitivity is not confined to periods of high and volatile interest rates as the sample period under examination is characterized by historically low and stable rates.     

Presentation of the English translation of Ettore Majorana's paper: The value of statistical laws in physics and social sciences

We consider a consistent pricing model of government bonds, interest-rate swaps and basis swaps in one currency within the no-arbitrage framework. To this end, we propose a three yield-curve model, one for discounting cash flows, one for calculating LIBOR deposit rates and one for calculating coupon rates of government bonds. The derivation of the yield curves from observed data is presented, and the option prices on a swap or a government bond are studied. A one-factor quadratic Gaussian model is proposed as a specific model, and is shown to provide a very good fit to the current Japanese low-interest-rate environment.     

An alternative approach to the calibration of the Vasicek and CIR interest rate models via generating functions

We propose a new method to calibrate the Vasicek and Cox--Ingersoll--Ross interest rate models from bond prices. We define an appropriate generating function and derive recursive relations between the derivatives of the generating function and the bond prices. The parameters of the Vasicek and CIR models are then obtained by solving a system of linearly independent equations arising from the recursive relations. We include numerical results that show the method’s accuracy when bond prices generated from the exact formulas are used.     

General equilibrium pricing with multiple dividend streams and regime switching

In this paper, we investigate a regime switching Lucas economy in continuous time, with multiple dividend streams and labour income. We determine the asset prices in equilibrium in the economy with regime switching, and derive a system of partial differential equations for the asset prices and the short interest rate. The solutions for the endogenous short interest rate, the bond price and the yield of the bond are obtained. We also consider applications of the equilibrium model and show that the model implies a rich framework for the term structure of interest rates. We demonstrate how the regime switching economy helps to improve the model-implied annual excess rate of return. This assists in explaining the famous equity premium puzzle.     

Monetary policy rules,asset prices and adaptive learning

Following the damaging real effects of asset price fluctuations over the recent financial crisis, the debate on the appropriate role of such prices in a monetary policy context has gained renewed attention. This paper argues that a direct monetary policy response to asset prices is not desirable under common instrumental rate rules. To illustrate this point, we build an adaptive learning model, that extends existing learning models in monetary policy, most notably, Bullard and Mitra (2002). The result remains valid in a context with heterogeneous beliefs and is robust to an optimal monetary policy rule including a weight on asset prices.     

我国中期通货膨胀压力预测——基于银行间市场国债收益率曲线的经验研究

本文对我国银行间市场3-5年中期收益率曲线的通货膨胀预测能力进行了经验研究,发现与短期收益率曲线相比,较长期的利率期限结构包含了更多未来通货膨胀变化的信息,因而可以作为通货膨胀预测的指示器;我国实际利率也不是稳定的,名义利率期限结构包含了实际利率变动的重要信息。虽然2008年的全球金融危机有效缓解了通货膨胀压力,但在大规模扩张性财政政策和货币政策作用下,市场仍存在较强通货膨胀预期,未来3-4年内我国仍然存在较大通货膨胀压力。     

Adjusting inconsistency through learning in group decision-making, and its application to China's MBA recruiting interview

In group decision-making, because of limitations on individual knowledge and information bases, or because of the existing decision rule, an individual decision maker may not be capable of evaluating selected alternatives. Such circumstances can lead to inconsistencies across group decision matrices. These inconsistencies are difficult to remedy under existing approaches. Based on Rough Set Theory, we thus propose a new approach that integrates two types of learning techniques. It first applies a machine-learning procedure that extracts possible alternatives from other decision makers that are currently not included in a given decision maker's alternative set. It then applies a group knowledge-learning model to determine corresponding attribute values of those newly learned alternatives in meeting a group's consistency requirement. Efficacy of the approach is illustrated by its application to China's MBA recruiting interview.     

WiMAX标准体系研究

WiMAX得到了业界的广泛支持，其标准化进程不断推进。文中给出了WiMAX标准化组织IEEE 802．16工作组和WiMAX论坛的组织机构，分析了两大组织之间的相互关系，探讨了WiMAX最新标准化进展，从空中接口标准、一致性标准和共存标准三方面介绍了IEEE 802．16系列标准现状。