Valuing Mortgage Insurance Contracts in Emerging Market Economies

We develop a new option-based method for the valuation of mortgage insurance contracts in closed form in an economy where agents are risk neutral. While the proposed valuation method is general and can be used in any market, it may be particularly useful in emerging market economies where other existing methods may be either inappropriate or are too difficult to implement because of the lack of relevant data. As an application, we price a typical Serbian government-backed mortgage insurance contract.     

加强无功电压管理 降低电网线路损耗

从石河子电网(文中简称石网)无功电压的运行现状及线损率的变化规律出发,分析了无功电压对电网经济运行的影响,并从技术、经济、管理三方面提出如何加强无功电压管理、降低电网线路损耗的建议.     

On the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations

How do exchange rate movements affect different sectors of an economy? We address this question in a simple general equilibrium model, stressing the different exposures of various sectors to foreign competition, an aspect ignored in earlier contributions. The impact of exchange rate shifts is highly heterogenous across sectors. While a depreciation leads to a substantial competitiveness and welfare gain for agents with a high exposure to foreign competition, agents facing mostly domestic competition are adversely affected.     

金融衍生产品发展的新特点与国内商业银行的策略研究

近年来，国际金融衍生产品市场呈现三个新特点：市场需求及市场规模日趋扩大，产品创新层出不穷，风险防范问题日渐突出，并由此对国际金融市场的发展和稳定带来深刻影响。随着我国人民币汇率制度改革、利率市场化及资本市场股权分置改革等进程的不断加快，金融衍生产品在国内市场的发展契机已经到来。我国发展金融衍生市场应遵循“适应经济金融改革进程、满足市场需求、结构上由简到繁、风险上由低到高”的总体原则。国内商业银行应当以资产保值增值为目的，选择适当的产品切入金融衍生市场，并注重提高金融衍生产品的核心竞争力，加强风险防范和人才的培养与引进。     

当代美国住宅的思考

美国2000年新建住宅投资4251亿美元，占固定资产投资的21．3％；住宅直接消费为9588亿美元，占GDP的9．71％；年存量住宅为1．16亿套(户)，空置率为5．9％。购买新房一般中值价为80美元／ft^2，一套住宅(2000ft^2)中值房价为16万美元；按中值计算贷款购房的支出与收入比为1：4．7；在美国仍有3500万户居民租用住宅。     

Global sourcing strategy and sustainable competitive advantage

Global sourcing strategy has been one of the most hotly debated management trends in the last 20 years. In its early years, global sourcing was examined mostly from “in-house” development and procurement perspectives; and in the last several years, research focus has shifted to “outsourcing” activities. Along with this shift from internal to external focus on global sourcing, many researchers and business practitioners have applied a core competency argument to justify increased levels of outsourcing activities on a global basis. Although the beneficial aspects of outsourcing are assumed in most cases, no consensus exists in reality as to the effect of outsourcing. Furthermore, the increased instability of the exchange rate environment in the last several years has also led to increased difficulties in managing globally scattered operations that were once fashionable in the 1980s-90s under the rubric of global strategy. In this article, the authors explore potential limitations and negative consequences of outsourcing strategy on a global scale.     

油气田开发项目平均投资利润率和利税率的确定

行业平均投资利润率和行业平均投资利税率是投资者进行投资机会选择的主要参考依据之一，是投资者对其投资项目收益的最低期望要求。从投资者角度来讲，恰当地确定平均投资利润率和行业平均投资利税率是一个相当重要而又比较棘手的问题。文章主要讨论了如何确定油气田勘探开发项目经济评价中平均投资利润率和行业平均投资利税率的一种简单方法。     

Current account adjustment in industrial countries

This paper examines the dynamics of current account adjustment among industrial countries. The purpose is to evaluate whether there is a threshold level of a current account deficit at which it becomes unsustainable and whether it is possible to characterize episodes of adjustment. We identify 25 episodes in which there was a sustained improvement in the current account following a large deficit between 1980 and 1997. We find that a typical current account reversal begins when the current account deficit is about 5% of GDP. However, we also find considerable cross-country variation in the reversal threshold, consistent with a stock-adjustment model of current account sustainability. Reversals are associated with slowing income growth and a 10–20% real exchange rate depreciation. Real export growth, declining investment, and an eventual leveling off in the budget deficit–GDP ratio are also likely to be part of the adjustment. These results imply that current account reversals in industrialized countries are related to the business cycle.     

An Analysis of Trade Patterns and the Effects of the Real Exchange Rate Movements in East Asia

This article investigates the patterns of vertical specialization in trade among China, Japan and Korea, and the effects of real exchange rate fluctuations under a multistage production process. By extending the models of Yi (2003, 2010), we derive two distinct features of vertical specialization and test them using Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) VAR. We find that a positive shock to China’s final good consumption increases the intermediate goods trade between Korea and China, with expanding magnitude over time. In addition, the positive effect of a real exchange rate depreciation on intermediate goods trade is strengthened through the competitiveness-enhancing channel, with this effect being more pronouncing in Korea-China trade than in Korea-Japan trade.