Shanxi Merchants’ Multilevel Financial System in Ming and Qing Dynasties,China

In the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1368–1911), China saw rapid development in industrial and commercial sectors. Over this period, a group of merchants originating from the inland province of Shanxi gradually built a multilevel financial system and became leaders in China’s banking sector. The system of financial institutions they established (pawnshops, seal shops, money shops, loan banks, and draft banks) each had a unique business model, with specific target client group and carefully designed risk management. They were also interconnected to allow for flexible capital flows, contributing to the fast economic growth in this period. Nevertheless, the traditional system also had limitations, leading to its replacement by modern banks eventually.     

Contained crisis and socialized risk: Unconventional monetary policy by the Bank of Japan in the 1890s

In the 1880s, Japan experienced its first stock investment boom, which was highly leveraged by the banking sector. In 1890, its first financial crisis occurred and triggered a de-leveraging process. With a high lower bound of the conventional interest rate intervention under the fixed exchange rate regime, the Bank of Japan decided to implement a massive securities purchases first time among major industrial economies and continued this unconventional policy until the early 1900s. We examine how the unconventional intervention for a decade affected the stock prices and the trade volumes, and show that the upward distortion in market pricing was considerable and that the equity-risk premium accordingly dropped, which meant socialization of the risk associated with the industrial investment.     

Stock Price Index and Exchange Rate Nexus in African Markets

This paper examines the relationship between stock price index and exchange rate in six African markets using monthly data for the period January 2007 to October 2015. A quantile regression approach is used. This methodology is shown to perform better than the ordinary least squares estimators, particularly when the conditional distribution is heterogeneous. Our empirical evidence reveals an interesting pattern in the association of these two financial markets in Africa, which shows that the negative relationship between stock and foreign exchange markets is more apparent when exchange rates are extremely low or high. The negative relationship between the two variables is in line with the portfolio balance effect.     

浅谈工程施工投标技巧

面对日益激烈的市场竞争,企业如何提高中标率以及如何在投标中获取最大的利润等都已经成为人们较为关注的重点,其中投标的编制技巧与报价策略都成为投标单位较为关注的热门话题,而投标策略和技巧在中标率较高的施工企业中有着不可忽视的作用。投标技巧主要就是以投标人在投标过程中需要关注的问题为重点。     

Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear

As important variables in financial market, sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) and exchange rate have correlations and spillovers. And the volatility spillovers between the two markets become further complicated with the effect of market fear caused by extreme events such as global pandemic. This paper attempts to explore the complex interactions within the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system by adopting the forecast error variance decomposition method. The results show that there is a relatively close linkage between the two markets and the total spillover index of the system is dynamic. For most of the past, the exchange rate has a higher spillover effect on the sovereign CDS than vice versa. Moreover, after the market fear variables are introduced, the “sovereign CDS-exchange rate” system and market fear variables present bidirectional spillovers. The results of the study have particular significance for maintaining the financial stability and preventing risk contagion between markets.     

The Relationship Between Sovereign Spreads and International Reserves: Does the Exchange Rate Regime Matter?

International reserves have been put forward as an important factor affecting sovereign spreads in the literature. This article empirically analyzes whether the relationship between international reserves and sovereign spreads depends on exchange rate policy in emerging markets. The analysis is carried out using exchange rate classifications based on both the officially declared regimes and the actual exchange rate behavior. The results show that international reserves reduce sovereign spreads for all levels of exchange rate flexibility using both classifications. Reserves have a similar effect on spreads for all exchange rate categories, except for hard pegs, under which the effect is larger.     

Is exchange rate risk priced in microfinance?

High microcredit interest rates have often been a source of criticism against the microfinance movement. Research has focused attention on the cost structure of interest rates and more recently on the macroeconomic and macro-institutional factors. While cost structure is probably the most important determinant of interest rates, other factors can also matter. This paper uses an innovative measure of foreign exchange risk to explore its impact on microcredit interest rates. We show that microfinance institutions that operate in countries with fixed exchange rate regimes tend to charge lower interest rates than those operating in countries with floating exchange rate regimes.     

Smooth breaks and nonlinear mean reversion in real interest parity: Evidence from East Asian countries

This study aims to explore the empirical validity of the real interest rate parity (RIP) hypothesis for East Asian countries using Japan as the base country. To this end, we employ the recently proposed unit root tests of Christopoulos and Leon-Ledesma that account for both multiple smooth structural breaks of unknown form and nonlinear mean reversion in the series. Our empirical results uncover overwhelming evidences in favor of the RIP hypothesis for the whole countries in our sample. More specifically, through a Fourier approximation, it is observed that all real interest rate differentials display a mean-reverting behavior around an infrequently smooth-breaking mean, with the breaks being in accordance with the financial reforms and economic crises witnessed by the countries. Moreover, the degree of mean reversion appears to vary nonlinearly with the size of real interest rate appreciations and depreciations.     

我国货币供给内生性研究——基于现金漏损率的分析

货币供给内生性与外生性问题是一个重要的理论和现实问题,正确判断一个经济体的货币供给内外生性对于认识货币供给运行机制、制定正确的货币政策以及提高货币政策的有效性都具有重要意义。本文以现金漏损率为切入点,深入分析其对货币乘数、进而对货币供给量的影响,并得出我国货币供给内生性增强的结论。最后,在该结论的指导下,为我国选择正确的货币政策以及如何提高货币政策的有效性提出了若干建议。     

Optimal dividend strategies with time-inconsistent preferences

This paper studies the optimal dividend strategies of an insurance company when the manager has time-inconsistent preferences. We consider the problem for a naive manager and a sophisticated manager, and analytically derive the optimal dividend strategies when claim sizes follow an exponential distribution. Our results show that the manager with time-inconsistent preferences tends to pay out dividends earlier than her time-consistent counterpart and that the sophisticated manager is more inclined to pay out dividends than the naive manager. Furthermore, we extend these results to the case with claim sizes following a mixed exponential distribution, and provide a numerical analysis to reveal the sensitivity of the optimal dividend strategies to changes in the premium, claims and surplus volatility.