Central bank transparency and financial market expectations: The case of emerging markets

In this paper, we study how central bank transparency influences the formation of money market expectations in emerging markets. The sample covers 25 countries for the period from January 1998 to December 2009. We find, first, that transparency reduces the bias (the difference between the money market rate and the weighted expected target rate over the contract period) in money market expectations. The effect is larger for countries with no exchange rate peg and countries with low income. Second, an intermediate level of transparency is found to have the most favorable influence on money market expectations: neither complete secrecy nor complete transparency is optimal. Finally, all subcategories of the Eijffinger and Geraats (2006) index lead to a smaller bias in expectations, with political transparency having the largest effect.     

防止利益冲突：治理房地产腐败的有效途径

当前,中国正处在发展的“黄金期”、“关键期”和“敏感期”,经济发展的“高速”、腐败现象的“高频”,以及由此引发的各类矛盾“高显”是其突出表征。我国房地产业在迅猛发展、对国计民生影响愈来愈深远、并成为国民经济发展支柱产业的同时,却也因房地产领域腐败案件频发给其发展带来极大困扰。应当充分认识利益冲突是房地产领域腐败的第一诱因和根源;多管齐下,建立健全防止利益冲突机制是从源头上治理房地产腐败的必然选择。     

Does trade integration alter monetary policy transmission?

This paper explores the role of trade integration—or openness—for monetary policy transmission in a medium-scale new Keynesian model. Allowing for strategic complementarities in price setting, we highlight a new dimension of the exchange rate channel by which monetary policy directly impacts domestic inflation: a monetary contraction which appreciates the exchange rate lowers the local currency price of imported goods; this, in turn, induces domestic producers to lower their prices too. We pin down key parameters of the model by matching impulse responses obtained from a vector autoregression on time series for the US relative to the euro area. Our estimation procedure yields plausible parameter values and suggests a strong role for strategic complementarities. Counterfactual simulations show that openness alters monetary transmission significantly. While the contractionary effect of a monetary policy shock on inflation and output tends to increase in openness, we find that monetary policy's control over inflation increases, as the output decline which is necessary to bring about a given reduction of inflation is smaller in more open economies.     

我国经济发展与离婚率关系的计量分析——基于VAR方法

改革开放以来,随着经济的发展,我国的离婚率持高不下。目前,越来越多的人关心中国离婚率的相关问题。文章基于VAR模型,采用协整分析,格兰杰因果分析,脉冲响应函数和方差分析法,发现离婚率与GDP增长率存在长期的正向协整关系,其长期弹性为0.11,GDP增长率是离婚率的单向格兰杰原因。脉冲响应和方差分解表明,GDP增长率对离婚率有影响但影响不太大,而离婚率对GDP增长率基本无影响。     

汽车发动机预装线装配平衡改进研究

为提高已经投产的汽车总装生产线的生产平衡率,研究发动机生产线生产平衡改进研究。以现有生产节拍和各个工位操作工时作为基础,运用生产线平衡的基本概念,对现有生产线进行优化。首先确定优化目标,通过工序同期化优化,减少生产岗位,从而提高部分岗位负荷,提高生产平衡率,为企业解决实际问题,节约人力、场地等资源。     

新股投资实证分析

本文以2002年7月初至2003年6月底一年间在沪市首次发行上市的56只新股为样本,运用灰色关联度分析方法对影响新股初始收益率的各因素进行了分析,并对初始收益率与新股短中期收益率关系进行了研究。     

超增长的中国储蓄率研究

我国储蓄的持续超常增长已经引起政府当局及学者们的广泛关注。本文通过对我国影响储蓄率的因素进行分析,从一个侧面对这一异常现象产生进行了阐述。最后针对分析结果,提出了若干政策建议。     

Proportional Odds Models with High‐Dimensional Data Structure

The proportional odds model is the most widely used model when the response has ordered categories. In the case of high‐dimensional predictor structure, the common maximum likelihood approach typically fails when all predictors are included. A boosting technique pomBoost is proposed to fit the model by implicitly selecting the influential predictors. The approach distinguishes between metric and categorical predictors. In the case of categorical predictors, where each predictor relates to a set of parameters, the objective is to select simultaneously all the associated parameters. In addition, the approach distinguishes between nominal and ordinal predictors. In the case of ordinal predictors, the proposed technique uses the ordering of the ordinal predictors by penalizing the difference between the parameters of adjacent categories. The technique has also a provision to consider some mandatory predictors (if any) that must be part of the final sparse model. The performance of the proposed boosting algorithm is evaluated in a simulation study and applications with respect to mean squared error and prediction error. Hit rates and false alarm rates are used to judge the performance of pomBoost for selection of the relevant predictors.     

Some Properties of Past Entropy and their Applications

In the context of information theory, measure of uncertainty in past lifetime distribution has been proposed by Di Crescenzo and Longobardi (J Appl Probab 39:434–440, 2002). In this paper, we study some ordering and aging properties in terms of past entropy (based on past lifetime) and develop some characterization results. Some discrete distribution results are also addressed here.     

WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF HOUSEWORK ON THE MARKET WAGE,AND CAN IT EXPLAIN THE GENDER WAGE GAP?

Abstract Does housework reduce the market wage, and if so, does it have a similar impact for males and females? In this paper, we survey and evaluate the recent and growing empirical literature on the linkages between housework and the wage rate. The review is motivated by unexplained gender wage gaps across studies, which consider personal and market‐related factors. We focus on this less‐studied aspect of wage determination. We consider the required modelling framework, and provide standardized estimated effects of housework on the hourly wage across studies. We evaluate how this literature has addressed potential estimation problems, in particular, the endogeneity of housework, concavity of the housework–wage function, threshold effects and work effort effects. We conclude that the evidence across ordinary least squares, instrumental variable, fixed effects and two‐stage least squares results casts serious doubt on the idea that the negative female housework–wage relationship is only driven by endogeneity bias or individual‐specific characteristics. Yet, much more needs to be done to address modelling and data requirements, and we point out likely and promising future research directions.