Convertibility risk: the precautionary demand for foreign currency in a crisis

This paper presents theoretical work linking money demand to the perceptions of households about the risk that domestic currency may become inconvertible or that it may be devalued. An empirical investigation of the size of this effect is carried out using monthly data for Korea to estimate an augmented demand-for-money equation. It is found that the fear of inconvertibility arising from the 1997 Korean currency crisis may have caused broad money demand to fall by 4–5% points,equivalent to the loss of reserves of $6–7.5 billion (or about 30% of reserves as measured at end-November 1997). This is a revised version of IMF Working paper WP/2001/210; it was written while Professor Black was Senior Policy Advisor at the IMF Institute and Christofides and Mourmouras were staff members in the IMF’s Policy Development and Review Department. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management. For useful comments and suggestions we thank an anonymous referee, Tim Lane, Ydahlia Metzgen, Roberto Perelli, Tony Richards, Christian Mulder, Steve Russell, as well as seminar participants at the IMF Institute, the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Federal Reserve Board, and Bank of Indonesia. We would also like to note similar (unpublished) empirical results using our approach by Dr. Rino Effendi for Indonesia and Angana Banerji for Russia     

A multilateral approach to examining the comovements among major world equity markets

This study investigates the comovement in stock indices among major developed markets, where Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indices are employed for the purposes of the study. We employ a model that accommodates multilateral international impacts on equity index movements. The empirical results reveal the existence of significant international transmission effects among these major world markets, both in terms of returns and volatility, and mostly in a positive direction. The U.S. market, as expected, is the leading market in the sense that it has the most pervasive and significant impact on all markets across continents. However, the U.S. market exhibits a different relationship with European markets from that with Asia-Pacific markets. The evidence also suggests that strong regional transmission effects exist. A further investigation using the extended model reveals that the linkages between U.S. and European markets are driven by positive global common forces and by negative international competitive effects. On the other hand, the U.S. and Asian markets are linked through positive global common forces and positive international contagion effects. The United States, Canada, and the U.K. are the three markets that still demonstrate contagion influence over countries outside its own region. The Asia-Pacific markets are more susceptible to contagion effects. Finally, it is interesting to find that Japanese market performance became more contagious toward other markets during the Asian financial crisis period.     

房地产三种评估价格的比较分析

简要的阐述了比准价格、收益价格、积算价格三种房地产评估价格的形成机理及理论依据，并从对一种观点的局限性分析出发，综合运用市场供求理论、均衡理论以及短边原则，对不同市场背景下三种估价方法得出的评估价格进行经济比较分析。     

Accounting development in Pakistan

This paper examines the origins, growth, and the development of accounting practices and disclosures in Pakistan and the factors that influenced them. We trace the early days of accounting in the Indian subcontinent and discuss the British colonial influence. We examine the development of accounting in Pakistan through three eras: Independence through 1971, Post 1971-1984, and 1984 to present. We describe how the colonial past and later the international financial institutions such as the Asian Development Bank and the International Monetary Fund played key roles in shaping accounting and reporting practices of the country. Pakistan's adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards as national standards has not led to improvement in the quality of financial reporting. We argue that Pakistan, even though classified as a common law country in literature, exhibits most of the properties of code law countries. We conclude that lack of investor protection (e.g., minority rights protection, insider-trading protection), judicial inefficiencies, and weak enforcement mechanisms are more critical to explaining the state of financial reporting in Pakistan than are cultural factors. This insight has policy implications for developing countries that are making efforts to improve the quality of the financial reporting of their business entities.     

International compliance with new Basel Accord principles for risk governance

We assess international compliance with the Basel Committee's 2010 guidance on governance of banking organisations. Based on an extensive examination of regulatory documents in selected advanced economies, we find that reform is incomplete in jurisdictions most affected by the financial crisis, and with the largest financial centres. In contrast, other countries less affected by the financial crisis have enacted risk governance reforms as protection against potential future contagion. We provide insights for policy‐makers charged with improving governance at banks, and a richer understanding for international regulators as they revise the guidelines and aim for greater compliance at the national level.     

金融投机、实需与国际大宗商品价格——信息摩擦视角下的大宗商品价格影响机制研究

本文实证考察了2005-2015年金融投机和实需对国际大宗商品现货价格的影响及其作用机理。首先对具有信息噪音属性的金融投机进行了明确识别。其次,从多个维度出发区分市场信息摩擦状态,定量分析不同信息摩擦环境中金融投机和实需的影响差异。研究发现:大宗商品价格在长期中由实需因素主导,短期中由金融投机主导;短期中,相对于低信息摩擦环境,在市场波动性较高、金融压力上升以及投资者情绪高涨的高信息摩擦环境中,以金融投机为主的信息噪音对大宗商品价格的影响更强。进一步分析证实,相比于低信息摩擦环境,高信息摩擦环境中金融交易者的市场份额反而降低。据此,本文提出稳定大宗商品市场的关键在于提高市场透明度,减少信息摩擦,从市场质量出发降低信息噪音的影响。     

关注调整中的国际货币体制权力结构

国际货币体系始终处于动荡之中,关键货币之间汇率冲突不断,导致这种状况的主要根源是美元危机。美元面临多方面挑战。美元体制基础弱化的征兆越来越明显。国际主导货币之间的竞争呈现新的特点。我国应注意发挥人民币潜在功能,完善外汇政策体系,维护金融稳定,在人民币国际化问题上宜立足于"不急不躁"战略。     

我国缺失国际能源定价权的原因和对策分析

贸易摩擦和能源革命正驱动国际能源市场格局悄然发生变化,能源安全再一次成为各国关注的焦点.作为能源进口大国和隐含能源净出口大国,我国由于缺失国际能源定价权经常被动接受"中国溢价"而蒙受巨大损失.研究发现,我国缺失国际能源定价权的原因主要在于能源期货市场发展滞后,能源战略储备不足,人民币国际化程度较低,行业垄断度较高.面对...     

基于胜任力模型的汽车营销课程体系探讨

在对高等职业院校汽车营销专业的课程体系调研的基础上,得出汽车营销人员胜任力构成因素。以汽车营销岗位职业能力为核心,以行业（企业）岗位（群）工作职责所需的知识、技能为准则构建汽车营销专业课程体系。该课程体系使用任务驱动、项目导向的教学方式。