银行业市净率问题研究——兼论国有商业银行股权转让价格问题

近一个时期,中国银行业改革出现重大突破,以交通银行和建设银行为代表的中国银行业掀起了一轮引进战略投资者和境外上市的高潮。本文以市净率这一价格指标为切入点,对境外银行业股权转让价格的一般规律进行了研究,并在此基础上对交通银行和建设银行引进战略投资者和上市的价格进行分析。     

Herd Behaviour and Cascading in Capital Markets: a Review and Synthesis

We review theory and evidence relating to herd behaviour, payoff and reputational interactions, social learning, and informational cascades in capital markets. We offer a simple taxonomy of effects, and evaluate how alternative theories may help explain evidence on the behaviour of investors, firms, and analysts. We consider both incentives for parties to engage in herding or cascading, and the incentives for parties to protect against or take advantage of herding or cascading by others.     

Decomposing the persistence of international equity flows

The portfolio flows of institutional investors are widely known to be persistent. What is less well-known, however, is the source of this persistence. One possibility is the ‘informed trading hypothesis:’ that persistence arises from autocorrelated trades of individual investors who believe they have information about value and who face an imperfectly liquid market. Another possibility is that there are asynchroneities with respect to investment decisions across funds, across investments, or both. These asynchroneities could be due to wealth effects (across investments for a single fund), investor herding (across funds for a single investment), or generalized contagion (across funds and across investments). We use daily data on institutional flows into 21 developed countries by 471 funds to measure and decompose aggregate flow persistence. We find that the informed trading hypothesis explains about 75% of total persistence, and that the remaining amount is attributable entirely to cross-fund own-country persistence. While asynchroneities across funds investing in the same country are important, asynchroneities across countries, either within a given fund, or across funds, are not important. The cross-fund flow lags we identify might result from different fund investment processes, or from some funds mimicking others' decisions. We reject the hypothesis that wealth effects explain persistence.     

Economic policy uncertainty,institutional environments,and corporate cash holdings

We investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on corporate cash holdings using a large sample of international firms. EPU intensifies concerns of investors on managerial self-dealing and political extraction. Consequently, the potential cost of cash holdings (i.e., expropriation) outweighs its benefit (i.e., precautionary motives), and the optimal amount of cash holdings decreases. We find supportive evidence that firms hold less cash when EPU is high. We further show that the market discounts excess cash holdings under high policy uncertainty, but this negative effect is mitigated by stronger investor protection, better freedom of press, and better government quality.     

Does online interaction between firms and investors reduce stock price crash risk?

This paper examines how online interaction between firm management and investors impacts stock price crash risk. Based on the previous literature, we postulate that online interaction constrains crash risk via two channels, i.e., deterring bad news hoarding activities of managers and decreasing differences of opinion among investors. Relying on the launch of Hudongyi (the first official investor relations management platform in the world) for identification, we demonstrate that online firm-investor interaction significantly reduces future stock price crash risk and that these two channels can both explain this effect. Overall, our findings highlight the important role of online interaction in risk management.     

投资者教育发挥作用了吗?——来自公募基金个人投资者调查数据的证据

投资者教育是保障资本市场平稳运行、良性发展的重要举措,也是我国资本市场重要的基础性制度建设。本文利用20000多份全国公募基金个人投资者调查数据,分析了投资者教育对基金投资收益的影响,并基于行为金融学框架探究了其背后的作用机制。以往文献研究表明,金融知识水平对投资收益会产生显著影响,本文研究发现,获取金融知识的渠道也会影响投资收益。相对于自己学习金融知识、相关工作经验累积金融知识、向亲戚朋友学习金融知识,投资者教育(如参加金融机构的投资教育活动、接受金融经济类课程或培训)更有助于投资者缓解趋势追逐、频繁交易、处置效应等交易行为偏差,从而获得更高的投资收益。进一步分析表明,投资者教育通过提高“理性程度”来提升基金投资盈利概率、投资总收益率和年均收益率的中介效应分别为19.41%、17.09%和12.75%。此外,不同群体参与投资者教育的积极性和受教育效果存在显著差异,投资者教育要更多采取“分类教育”的形式。本文研究对进一步加强投资者教育、更好地推动资本市场发展具有一定的参考意义。     

大股东会计信息披露质量的选择分析

目前在大部分上市公司中大股东仍然占有绝对的决策权,并决定了企业的会计披露政策,大股东必须进行会计信息披露程度的收益成本权衡,只有当企业提高会计披露质量,满足投资需求能够使大股东获得更多的现金流时,才会愿意提供更高质量的会计信息。本文通过对大股东面临会计披露程度选择决策时的成本收益权衡进行验证,试图发现促使大股东愿意提高会计信息披露质量的激励因素,以促使企业会计信息质量的改进。     

漫谈标准化与消费心理

着重谈了标准化与消费心理的关系，作为标准化管理，应怎样分析研究消费心理     

Industry herding in crypto assets

The aim of this paper is to investigate if herd behaviour is present in crypto assets at industry level. Using price information extracted from coinmarketcap.com between 29 April 2013 and 9 May 2022, we find evidence of herding and reverse herding in the crypto assets market. Concentrated periods of herding and reverse herding are particularly evident in the January 2020–April 2022 Covid period. At industry level, herding is more profound in large sectors with higher volatility. In smaller sectors where ventures are backed by ‘real assets’, very short periods of herding with marginal significance are detected. Reverse herding is present in all industries except Real Estate between June 2021 and May 2022, implying that strategies such as excessive ‘flight to quality’ or/and token picking are at play during the recent crypto crash. We also detect varying asymmetric herding at industry level. This paper further examines the factors that drive such industry herding and reverse herding in the crypto assets market, and our results show that industry concentration and investor sentiments contribute to the probability of herding/reverse herding. Our study provides further insights to the forces that drive the dispersion in crypto assets prices and contribute to the behavioural studies of the crypto market.     

普外科老年患者心理干预研究

据中国老龄办提供的数据显示,截至2008年,中国老年人口总数已达1.6亿,占总人口的12%,老年是人生的一个特殊时期,易患许多疾病,且面对手术普遍具有恐惧、焦虑心理、情绪不稳定等情况,因此了解老年患者的心理变化特点,加强术前心理护理干预,能够减轻其心理压力,对手术的顺利进行有着重要的意义。