阿根廷的金融开放与金融危机

阿根廷是美国赞扬的金融自由化典范,银行证券业向外资开放的力度大,但其爆发金融危机造成的破坏也格外严重。本文论述了阿根廷金融危机与经济全球化进程,特别是与金融开放和资本市场自由化的联系,分析了阿根廷吸引跨国银行投资,对于本国金融体系稳定所产生的影响,资本外逃如何给民众存款造成重大损失。本文还论述了中国应如何吸取阿根廷的教训,慎重对待外资收购、兼并和MBO,特别是"入世"后银行证券业的开放,更好维护本国经济金融安全,防范风险。     

Challenges in service network expansion: An application in donated breastmilk banking in South Africa

Neonatal infections are the leading cause for neonatal deaths in developing countries, resulting in more than 1.5 million infant fatalities annually. The most effective prevention against neonatal infections is exclusive breastfeeding. However, reasons such as maternal death during birth, maternal illnesses such as HIV and TB-meningitis, and lack of rooming-in facilities prevent the infant to be breastfed by his/her mother. One way to mitigate these infections is by supplying pasteurized donor-expressed breastmilk. In this paper, we consider the network expansion of the donated breastmilk distribution supply chain in South Africa. As with the distribution of most public sector and humanitarian relief goods and services, the transportation of donated breastmilk is hampered by the inherent uncertainty in the environment, and by the fact that in addition to efficient usage of resources, distribution should be made in an equitable manner. We incorporate uncertainty into our models by means of multiple scenarios, which are determined based on different assumptions about population size, HIV prevalence, and status of public health in the country, income, and education. We consider various equity-based objectives and propose rounding-based heuristics to solve these. We focus on two delivery schemes; one which uses out-and-back transportation, and one that makes multiple stops on the delivery route. Using computational experiments, we analyze the trade-offs between the objectives as well as the effects of various public health policies, network expansion budget, and assumptions on supply and demand. We also describe the teaching materials resulting from this paper, which include a case study, a supply/demand estimation tool, and an interactive decision support tool.     

The impact of oil prices and the financial market on cost efficiency in the insurance and Takaful sectors: Evidence from a stochastic frontier analysis

The Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) insurance industry, including conventional insurance and Takaful, has witnessed remarkable growth during the last decade. However, the economies of this region rely on oil as the primary stream of revenue and lack development in financial markets. This could affect the insurance industry. For this reason, this paper examines the impact of oil prices and the financial market on the cost efficiency of the insurance and Takaful sectors in GCC countries using a stochastic frontier cost function with data from 2009–2016. The results show that the relationship between oil prices and efficiency changes from positive to negative when the prices increase, whereas the relationship between the financial market and efficiency is negative. No clear evidence of the impact of oil prices on efficiency arises from the differences between conventional insurance and Takaful. However, there are differences regarding the financial market, with a negative impact on conventional insurance and a positive one on the Takaful business. The results of this study have implications for regulators and management. The Takaful industry is rapidly growing compared to conventional insurance in the GCC and, therefore, the financial market may have added benefits for the GCC region. However, caution is required in relation to the impact of the financial market on conventional insurance. Furthermore, management may require the development of strategies to deal with the nature of GCC economies to avoid shocks to oil prices.     

A comprehensive examination of internet banking user behaviour: evidence from customers yet to adopt,currently using and stopped using

Abstract

Despite the surge in interest in research on customers’ adoption of internet banking (IB), how discontinued users can be brought back to IB has not received much attention. To respond to this question and to provide a comprehensive understanding of IB customer behaviour, we develop a conceptual model grounded on the extended technology acceptance model, and empirically validate it using a sample of 614 IB customers (including those yet to adopt, current users and discontinued users) from China. Perceived value is the most important driver for explaining all categories of customers’ IB-related behaviours. Banks that implement measures that aim to increase the perceived usefulness of IB and enhance the value of IB are likely to be rewarded with increasing IB adoption amongst its customer base.     

加入WTO后我国银行卡业务的SWOT分析

加入世界贸易组织后 ,我国银行卡业务面临着前所未有的威胁。采取SWOT分析方法深入分析我国银行卡市场可能发生的变化 ,全面考虑面对国外的竞争压力 ,我国银行卡业的竞争优势、劣势、威胁和机遇 ,把银行卡业发展重新定位 ,以适应我国特色的经营发展。     

商业银行效率演进趋势及结构特征透析

应用随机边界方法（SFA）,本文对中国16家商业银行1994至2006年的成本/利润效率情况进行了测度。估计结果表明,样本期内中国商业银行成本/利润效率水平总体上均呈升势,股份制银行的表现均要优于国有银行,在成本方面这种优势在不断缩小,而在利润方面则没有明显的变化趋势。我们讨论的一个重要含义是：在经济的全面国际化和市场化背景下,革除行业准入上的制度壁垒、放松业务领域上的分割限制是提高中国商业银行盈利能力的重中之重。     

关于我国商业银行开展私人银行业务现状的思考

随着国民经济的发展和财富集中度的增强,国内对于个人理财及更加高端的私人银行业务呼声也愈来愈高。自2007私人银行业务在国内开展以来,我国商业银行经历了两年多的机会窗口期,即将面对来自外资金融机构和国内其他金融机构更加猛烈的冲击。2008年以来,金融危机波及全球,在新的机遇与挑战面前,究竟如何把握现有优势并不断开拓市场,将是国内商业银行将要关注的重点。     

COMMENT ON THE 2011 WINCOTT LECTURE, ‘CONTROL RIGHTS (AND WRONGS)’

Over a long period leading up to the current financial crisis, small banks within a small banking system were replaced by unsafe, large banks within a huge banking system. The banks have now grown so big and so dangerous that they have the capacity to wreck economies and bring down governments.     

商业银行流动性与违约风险研究——基于 PVAR 模型的实证检验

本文使用11家上市银行的季度数据建立面板向量自回归（PVAR）模型,运用脉冲响应函数分析银行流动性对银行风险的动态影响。结果显示,内外部融资流动性对商业银行风险有显著影响,但二者作用于银行风险的时间路径和作用存在差异。银行风险之于外部流动性的响应较为迅速,对于内部流动性而言有一定滞后;外部流动性对银行风险的影响在时间序列上呈现衰弱周期,而内部流动性的影响则随着时间推移逐步加强。由此,在短期的流动性危机中,应更注重外部流动性的补充,但从长期来看,内部融资流动性才是商业银行风险的基础因素。     

TOWARDS SOUND MONETARY INSTITUTIONS

Most people see money and central banking as shrouded by an impenetrable veil of mystery, as matters that ought to be delegated to expert economists in central banks. Yet the actual performance of central banks has been less than stellar. And there are good reasons to expect unchecked, discretionary monetary policy by central bankers to produce less‐than‐perfect results. Not only do central bankers not have the right incentives and knowledge to make beneficial discretionary decisions, but the economy does not always behave in a predictable fashion, reacting as an automaton to discretionary policy shifts. A market‐based monetary arrangement – such as Friedrich von Hayek's free banking proposal – would be preferable to a national or supranational monopoly on the issue of money. If such an arrangement is not attainable, then it is desirable, at the very least, that the behaviour of central bankers is constrained by rules, such as nominal income growth targets.