商业银行网络银行业务发展影响因素的实证研究

采用自组织数据挖掘方法(GMDH),客观、自动地筛选影响商业银行网络银行业务发展的主要因素。利用2000—2011年我国10家商业银行的季度数据,实证分析网络银行业务发展与其影响因素之间的非线性关系。研究结果表明:政策因素、电子商务发展、网络营销和安全性是影响商业银行网络银行业务发展的主要因素;政策因素和网络营销对网络银行业务发展的影响较小,电子商务发展和安全性对网络银行业务发展的影响较大;这些影响因素与网络银行业务发展之间不仅存在线性关系,而且存在非线性关系。     

银行业综合化经营研究

首先通过回顾国内外银行综合化经营的主要文献,然后构建了银行综合化经营的理论研究框架,并进一步对美国银行业综合化经营与总收益的关系做了OLS回归、协整、脉冲响应以及方差分解分析。研究发现:综合化指标、传统业务收益增幅、银行规模、资本结构均与总收益之间存在正相关关系,且存在长期均衡的关系;脉冲响应分析结果表明:在第1-9期、第18-24期,美国银行业综合化指标对银行业总收益的冲击为正,第10-17期,对银行业总收益的冲击为负;综合化指标对美国银行业总收益的贡献率最大,其次是银行规模,然后是传统业务收益增幅,资本结构的贡献率最小。     

A comprehensive examination of internet banking user behaviour: evidence from customers yet to adopt,currently using and stopped using

Abstract

Despite the surge in interest in research on customers’ adoption of internet banking (IB), how discontinued users can be brought back to IB has not received much attention. To respond to this question and to provide a comprehensive understanding of IB customer behaviour, we develop a conceptual model grounded on the extended technology acceptance model, and empirically validate it using a sample of 614 IB customers (including those yet to adopt, current users and discontinued users) from China. Perceived value is the most important driver for explaining all categories of customers’ IB-related behaviours. Banks that implement measures that aim to increase the perceived usefulness of IB and enhance the value of IB are likely to be rewarded with increasing IB adoption amongst its customer base.     

The Confidence Trap: Japan’s Past Bubble and China’s Recent Bubble

This paper explores the origin of China’s recent credit and asset boom by comparing it with the Japanese bubble economy in the late 1980s by focusing on the asymmetric pattern of financial liberalisation under high savings. It argues that (1) both cases show a ‘confidence trap’ in that policy-makers of the government shared a complacent mindset that they can achieve the optimal mix of market liberalisation and repression, while believing that their political economic system is fundamentally different from others; (2) Such complacent confidence precipitated the supply-side driven financial reforms, in which both governments tried to diversify the credit channels of bank deposits by promoting non-bank financial intermediaries; (3) Exogenous shocks played a pivotal role in enforcing the government to take aggressive monetary easing and fiscal expansionary measures. But the Chinese case is different from the Japanese case in that (1) local politics has promoted a ‘too secure to fail’ situation in which rent-seeking activities are difficult to be detected, thus aggravating the hidden systemic risks; (2) China needs to liberalise its capital account with the more strengthened macroprudential regulatory governance, as the global foreign exchange markets have drastically changed from the period of the 1980s.     

QUANTITATIVE STUDY ON THE IMPACT OF BRANCHLESS BANKING ON MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS

In this study, we examined how implementing branchless banking partnerships (BBPs) can enable microfinance institutions to improve their efficiency by reducing cash handling and to expand its product offering to savings. We examined the case of Attawfiq Microfinance in Morocco, that implemented a BBP strategy named Low Income Banking (LIB) in order to achieve increased efficiency and expand its product offering to savings through the LIB account offering. We studied how the customers of Attawfiq used the LIB account for transactional and savings purposes by analysing a large database of sociodemographic factors of customers and payments data of microcredits for the period 2010–15 (554,541 customers). We included in our analysis, for the first time to our knowledge, not only the study of the correlations between a very extensive dataset of sociodemographic variables and the use of bank accounts in terms of transactions and savings, but also the study of microcredit data as explanatory variables. Our study concluded that the BBP model implemented (LIB) allowed Attawfiq Microfinance to improve its operating efficiency although it failed to achieve increased savings.     

Risk,resilience, and Shariah-compliance

Despite the popularity of Islamic Finance, the effects of Shariah-compliance on non-financial firm operations have never been studied. Shariah-compliance requirements presents unique conditions to examine how firms perform under restricted conditions. This paper seeks to examine the effects of Shariah-compliance on the risk and resilience of non-financial firms. Using a dynamic panel system GMM and a host of firm-specific attributes, and a global sample of 2,160 firms across six geographic regions, the results suggest that Shariah-compliant firms have lower firm risk as measured by total and idiosyncratic risk, and greater firm resilience as measured by the percent deviation from the maximum values of sales, cost of goods sold, operating expenses, and share price. These effects are more profound in the years following the U.S. subprime crisis. Results also show socio-cultural norms to have a moderating effect. Further testing shows firms face stiff penalties for losing their Shariah-compliance status. This paper is the first to study the effects of Shariah-compliance on non-financial firm operations on a global scale. This paper also contributes to the capital structure and corporate governance literature as it provides evidence that suggest resource restraints may be beneficial for a firm. The findings of this paper also provide significant value to firms looking to capitalize on the 1.8 billion-strong Muslim market with further insight on the intricacies of Shariah-compliance.     

View from practice: Stock market reaction to sukuk credit rating changes in Malaysia

Documented evidence on conventional bond markets shows negative market reaction to bond credit rating downgrade and no reaction to credit rating upgrade. Despite the fact that sukuk issuances make up more than 58.8% of the value of outstanding bonds in the country and Malaysia issues at least half of the world's sukuk and is widely recognized as a leader in the sukuk space, there is no documented evidence on the stock market reaction to sukuk credit rating changes. This study analyzed the wealth effect of sukuk credit rating changes in Malaysia using 16 sukuk upgrades and 20 sukuk downgrades for the period 2000–2014. The evidence shows negative market reaction to downgrades and positive significant reaction to sukuk rating upgrade. This symmetrical market reaction to sukuk credit rating changes implies the market was indifferent between bonds and sukuk from the credit rating perspective. This finding supports the notion that the credit rating agencies are Shariah‐neutral when rating these capital market instruments.     

Payout policy and ownership structure: The case of Islamic and conventional banks

Using a sample of Islamic and conventional financial institutions domiciled in 16 countries for the period 2000–2015, we examine how ownership structure affects dividend policy. Our main findings indicate that ownership identity is important in explaining dividend policy in these banks, albeit in different patterns. In particular, the results suggest that government ownership seems to exert negative effects on dividend payouts in both types of banks, which is in line with the preference of governments towards bank stability. With respect to family ownership, the impact is negative for conventional banks but positive for Islamic ones, consistent with agency theory. These results are to some extent similar in the case of foreign ownership where it is associated with a higher payout policy in Islamic banks, but not significant in conventional ones. Our results are robust to an array of additional analyses including propensity score matching.     

When do informed traders acquire and trade on informational advantage? Evidence from Federal Reserve stress tests

Using Federal Reserve bank stress test announcements, we examine when option traders acquire informational advantage and when they exploit it. We find consistent evidence of informed options trading around announcements. However, when test results are announced in successive weeks we find high abnormal option volume, considerably positive abnormal returns and significant return predictability in the first week, but not the following week. This suggests that informed option traders are able to anticipate upcoming news events and skillfully process public information but it also suggests that trading on acquired information is conditioned on the level of information asymmetry in the market.     

Bank fee-based shocks and the U.S. business cycle

Efficient liquidity matching requires from banks to track external shocks (e.g., GDP growth shocks, stock market shocks and monetary policy shocks) in order to optimally allocate their assets between loans and other business lines. Profit maximizing banks have to rebalance their product-mix to take advantage of these changes. However, even though banking is cyclical, and contemporaneously reacts to shocks outside the banking sphere, there may also be some feedback effects at play, whereby bank changes, in turn, could affect economic and financial conditions. Generalizing the results of Marcucci and Quagliariello (2006, 2009), who indeed find an asymmetric impact of credit shocks on economic and financial time series in recession, we use a similar VAR framework to show that an even stronger feedback effect is prevalent for fee-based shocks. If the feedback effects of credit and fee-based shocks might have been both at play before the subprime crisis, the feedback effect of credit shocks seems to have faded away during the subprime crisis, whereas the feedback effect stemming from fee-based shocks has gained further strength.