The dynamic interactions among the stock,bond and insurance markets

This paper explores the lead–lag relationships and the dynamic linkages among stock, insurance and bond markets in the developed countries. This is the first empirical study which sheds light on the extent and magnitude of the association among these financial markets used by the Granger causality test of Toda and Yamamoto (1995), generalized impulse response approach, and generalized variance decomposition in a multivariate setting. Our empirical results illustrate that there are indeed various patterns of dynamic relationships. The direction of causality appears to differ across countries. While investigating these interactive relationships under unexpected shocks, there is a one-way significant influence between the life insurance premium and long-run interest rate. These empirical findings serve as valuable applications not only for investors to diversify their risk away as well as to earn the abnormal return, but also for policy-makers to allocate resources more efficiently.     

基于协整检验的新疆出口贸易影响因素分析

利用协整分析和误差修正模型对新疆出口贸易发展的影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明,在长期内其发展受进口、汇率和人力资本投入的影响较大,在短期内受到进口、外商直接投资以及能源消耗的影响较为显著.     

新型城镇化对产业升级的影响效应分析

我国新型城镇化已成为经济新常态下产业升级的新思路,新型城镇化进程产生的诸多绩效是产业升级的强大动力。本文系统阐述了新型城镇化影响产业升级的作用机理,并基于数据可得性以带状选取东中西部各3个省份,每个省选取3个中大型地级市2004~2015年的面板数据作为研究样本,将新型城镇化和产业升级之间关系图和格兰杰因果检验结合,从时间和空间角度分析新型城镇化对产业升级的影响。结论表明：在时间上,2005~2011年,两者有负相关关系,2011~2015年,两者有正相关关系;在空间上,东部新型城镇化对产业升级有正向影响,中西部前者对后者无正向影响。根据实证结果和新型城镇化对产业升级的影响在时间和空间上存在差异的原因进而提出相关对策建议。     

中国旅游经济增长与碳排放的耦合关系研究

厘清旅游经济增长与能源消费及CO2排放之间的关系对于实现增长前提下的低碳旅游发展意义重大。文章采用"自下而上"法,估算了1991~2010年中国旅游业的CO2排放量,并运用脱钩理论、ADF单位根检验、协整分析以及Granger因果关系检验,辨识和分析了中国旅游经济增长与碳排放之间的耦合关系。实证研究结果表明,在研究样本区间内,中国旅游经济增长与CO2排放量除2003年为未脱钩以外,其余年份均处于相对脱钩状态;旅游经济增长与碳排放之间存在长期的协整关系;旅游经济增长构成CO2排放的Granger原因不显著,而CO2排放构成旅游经济增长的Granger原因较为显著,即存在从CO2排放到旅游经济增长的单向Granger因果关系。基于上述结论,提出相关政策建议。     

我国黄金期货市场价格发现与套期保值功能——基于ARDL-ECM模型

文章收集了2011-2013年的黄金期货和现货价格数据,采用ARDL-ECM模型分析我国黄金期货价格和现货价格之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究表明:我国黄金期货市场具有完美且有效的套期保值功能,但尚不具有价格发现功能,其运行效率有待提高。     

社会距离对大学生道德判断的影响

目的：基于解释水平理论,探讨社会距离是否影响大学生的道德判断,为高校对学生进行道德教育和人格塑造提供心理学依据。方法：采用内隐联想测验（Implicit Association Test,IAT）研究范式,随机抽取63名宁夏大学本科生进行实验。结果：被试在相容任务下的平均反应时显著短于在不相容任务下的平均反应时（t=-4.192,df=59,P〈0.001）;女生在相容任务下的平均反应时显著短于男生在相容任务下的平均反应时（F（1,58）=10.27,P〈0.05）,男女生的IAT效应值存在显著性差异（t=-2.286,df=58,P〈0.05）。结论：大学生的道德判断受到社会距离的影响。大学生倾向于将积极道德词与熟人联结,而将消极道德词与陌生人联结。此外,社会距离对大学生道德判断的影响存在性别差异。     

Panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test and PPP in Africa

This study revisits purchasing power parity (PPP) theory for 20 African countries using panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test proposed by Emirmahmutoglu and Omay (2014), through the sequential panel selection method of Chortareas and Kapetanios (2009). While standard panel unit root tests fail to support the PPP, the empirical results from panel asymmetric nonlinear unit root test do support the PPP. However, additional tests reveal that support in all 20 African countries is mostly due to stationarity of the real effective exchange rates of Ghana and Rwanda where the adjustment process towards equilibrium is nonlinear and asymmetric.     

Are Turkey's tourism markets converging? Evidence from the two-step LM and three-step RALS-LM unit root tests

In this study, we aim to analyse whether Turkey's 14 major tourist source markets are converging by using monthly data over the period January 1996 to December 2012. To this aim, we use the recently developed two-step Lagrange multiplier (LM) and three-step residual augmented least squares-Lagrange multiplier (RALS-LM) unit root tests that allow for two structural breaks in data. The results indicate that 10 out of 14 markets are converging, meaning that tourism policies and strategies directed at these markets are successful. Furthermore, the break points correspond to the important political, social, natural and economic events such as crisis, earthquake, disease and terrorist attack.     

地震灾区某职工住宿楼项目加固设计

本工程所在区域震感极为强烈,建筑物及生产设施遭受破坏较严重,致使该建筑物出现很多裂缝。文章介绍了粘贴芳玻韧布和混凝土修补2种常见的加固处理方案,指出灵活地运用检测、加固方法,可以取得事半功倍的效果。     

电涡流缓速器试验台组合飞轮的研究与设计

本文对汽车制动过程进行分析,确定了要正确模拟汽车制动过程惯性力所需的各转动部分的转动惯量,提出了用飞轮组、电机和转动轴共同模拟的多分流加载方法。并对组合飞轮的进行优化设计和检测,使电涡流缓速器试验台能有效地模拟不同转动惯量的汽车。