Backcasting energy futures using industrial ecology

Backcasting has been widely used for developing energy futures. This paper explores the potential for using industrial ecology to guide the development of energy futures within a backcasting framework. Building on the backcasting work of Robinson [1], a seven step method is presented to embed industrial ecology principles within the development and assessment of future scenarios and transition paths toward them. The approach is applied to the case of backcasting regional energy futures in the Latrobe Valley, near Melbourne, Australia. This region has substantial brown coal deposits which are currently mined and used in coal-fired power stations to generate electricity. Bounded by a sustainability vision for the region in a carbon-constrained world, regional industrial ecologies in 2050 were backcast around three themes: bio-industries and renewables (no coal usage); electricity from coal with carbon capture and storage (low to high coal usage); and coal to products such as hydrogen, ammonia, diesel, methanol, plastics and char (demonstrating medium to high overall coal use relative to current levels). Potential environmental, technological, socio-political and economic impacts of each scenario across various life cycle stages were characterised. Results offer a platform for regional policy development to underpin deliberation on a preferred future by the community, industry and other stakeholders. Industrial ecology principles were found to be useful in backcasting for creatively articulating alternative futures featuring industrial symbiosis. However, enabling the approach to guide implementation of sustainable transition pathways requires further development and would benefit from integration within the Strategic Sustainable Development framework of Robèrt et al. [2].     

Biofuel policies and the environment: Do climate benefits warrant increased production from biofuel feedstocks?

We examine whether climate benefits warrant policies promoting biofuel production from agricultural crops when other environmental impacts are accounted for. We develop a general economic-ecological modelling framework for integrated analysis of biofuel policies. An economic model of farmers' decision making is combined with a biophysical model predicting the effects of farming practices on crop yields and relevant environmental impacts. They include GHG emissions over the life cycle, nitrogen and phosphorus runoff, and the quality of wildlife habitats. We apply our model to crop production in Finland. We find that under current biofuel production technology the case for promotion of biofuels is not as evident as has been generally thought. Only reed canary grass for biodiesel is unambiguously desirable, whereas biodiesel from rape seed and ethanol production from wheat and barley cause in most cases negative net impacts on the environment. Suggested policies in the US and the EU tend to improve slightly the environmental performance of biofuel production.     

中国寿险需求影响因素的检验

本文运用面板数据分析方法．从宏观角度实证分析了1997～2003年中国内地30个省（市）寿险需求的影响因素，探讨了经济发展、教育水平、居民储蓄存款、人均可支配收入、竞争程度因素对寿险保费收入的影响。实证检验发现，以上因素对一个地区的寿险需求均有显著的正向影响。我国各地区寿险市场的发展是“经济推动型”，寿险市场发展不平衡的根本原因在于经济发展不平衡。     

基于生命周期的虚拟企业知识活动分析及其伙伴选择过程研究

随着新经济的到来,知识越来越成为企业快速响应市场机遇和获取竞争优势的最短缺资源.而企业自身知识资源的有限性使企业越来越多地采用虚拟企业的高级形态--知识联盟型虚拟企业来弥补企业知识资源的不足以快速响应变化的市场需求.本文首先对知识联盟型虚拟企业的知识缺口类型进行研究和划分,然后分析并描述虚拟企业生命周期各阶段的知识活动;在此基础之上,探讨虚拟企业组建阶段考虑知识要素的伙伴选择过程;最后,针对不同的知识缺口,提出伙伴选择过程的评价指标体系设计中应考虑的知识性因素.     

流动性、生命周期与投资组合相异性——中国投资者行为调查实证分析

本文采用Probit和Tobit模型对中国居民的股票市场参与和投资组合的影响因素进行了分析,主要有以下的实证发现:首先,不流动性资产特别是房地产的投资显著影响了投资者的股票市场参与和投资组合,而且影响以“替代”效应或者说“挤出”效应为主。其次,投资者在进行投资组合时极少利用股票市场对其未来现金流所承担的风险进行对冲,也就是说,中国居民投资的“生命周期效应”不明显;第三,中国居民投资的“财富效应”非常显著。财富的增加既增加了居民参与股票市场的概率,也增加了居民参与股票市场的深度。     

高速公路工程集成管理的关键理论及方法

针对高速公路工程的特点,提出了高速公路工程集成管理模式。重点介绍了实现集成管理的三项关键理论及方法:通过项目分解结构技术进行项目系统分析;运用工程全寿命周期设计的理论和方法实现全部工程要素的全寿命周期集成;应用全寿命周期费用矩阵分析模型实现工程费用集成管理。上述成果已应用于某高速公路扩建工程实践。     

电力客户生命周期模式研究与营销方案设计

电力客户具有生命周期,电力客户生命周期是指电力客户关系水平随时间变化的发展轨迹,它描述了客户关系从一种状态（一个阶段）向另一种状态（另一阶段）运动的总体特征。本文的研究目标就是基于电力客户的特殊性,提出了电力客户生命生命周期的划分及各阶段的特征。给出了表征电力客户关系发展水平的变量,对各个表征变量,在电力客户生命周期周期各阶段的变化趋势进行分析和研究,并根据各表征变量在各生命周期不同阶段的变化情况,给出典型的电力客户生命周期曲线。从而分析、研究并建立电力客户的生命周期模型,基于生命周期理念,提出新的电力客户细分方法,即：基于电力客户生命周期理念的客户分类,并针对不同细分客户制定相应的营销策略。     

中国寿险公司多元化经营的风险分析

选取新华、国寿、太平、泰康、平安等五家寿险集团公司从2001~2011年每年绩效指标中总资产收益率和净资产收益率的标准差作为度量公司风险的指标,将五家公司的业务线熵指数的均值作为多元化经营的指标进行实证分析。结果表明:多元化经营与寿险公司总资产收益率、净资产收益率的标准差之间存在一定的非线性关系,即多元化经营在一定范围内可以降低ROA和ROE的波动性,但在一定范围内又可能会增大这种波动性。     

论公司治理文化的生命周期

生命周期的概念适合于公司治理文化的研究,公司治理文化生命周期的各阶段具有其各自的特点。文章认为通过预测公司治理文化生命周期曲线上所处的位置,可以预测公司治理文化的变化趋势,解释产生变化的原因,据此制定出一系列的管理对策,以实现公司治理文化的可持续发展。     

论社会保障的生命周期及中国的周期阶段

从国家保障、福利国家、强制储蓄和社会保险等主要的社会保障模式中 ,可以看到由产生、成长、高峰、衰退和消亡等阶段组成的社会保障体制的生命周期。中国的新社会保障体制在其生命周期上已经完成产生阶段 ,正处于成长阶段的中期 ,经过另外三十年左右的努力 ,将可以进入高峰阶段。为此 ,中国需要在社会保障体制的改革和建设中对农村保障、养老保障、失业保障和医疗保障诸方面 ,付出一系列特殊而具体的努力