I.J. Bienaymé [1796–1878]: Criticality,Inequality, and Internationalization*

Two striking contributions of Bienaymé to mathematical statistics: (1) a completely correct statemet of the Criticality Theorem for simple branching processes in 1845; and (2) the derivation of the Bienaymé-Chebyshev Inequality, are revisited on the 200th anniversary of his birth. We use writings and archival materials available since the note of Heyde & Seneta (1972) to present a fuller biographical picture. Bienaymé's connections with Buniakovsky and Chebyshev are elucidated, and this role in furthering Chebyshev's international contacts outlined. A concluding section illuminates Bienaymé's understanding of the linear regression of one random variable on another in an actuarial context of random shocks.     

农村人身保险在京郊养老体系中的发展探析

随着我国人口老龄化情况的不断加剧，养老问题解决已经迫在眉睫，而我国六成以上的老年人口分布在农村，所以农民养老问题尤显艰巨。随着计划生育政策的推行、经济社会结构的转型，家庭养老、土地养老的传统养老模式已经根本无法满足农村老年人口养老的需求，迫切需要发展农村养老保险，建立农村养老保障体系。虽然北京农村地区经济基础较为发达，但仅依靠政府财政也难以建立起较为完善的农村养老保险体系，需要商业人身保险发挥重要的补充作用，扩大覆盖面，提供多层次养老保障。     

Social security and cross-country differences in hours: A general equilibrium analysis

I develop a general equilibrium life cycle model with an intensive and extensive margin of labor supply and endogenous human capital accumulation. I use the model to assess the effects of changes to various features of social security on labor supply outcomes. Of particular interest are changes to the scale of the program and to the relevant eligibility rules. I find that the cross-country differences in social security programs account for at least 79% of the differences in employment rates of people aged 55–64 and 17–31% of the differences in aggregate hours worked between the US and continental Europe.     

Comparing Lives

The construction of quality of life indicators seeks to transform a fundamentally subjective and experiential concept - the quality of lives as lived by actual people - into an objective and globally applicable measuring instrument. The article critiques some of the assumptions that are necessary to construct such a measure, and makes a plea for the use of a more appropriate and felicitous procedure for comparing variations in the quality of life.     

寿命延长与延迟退休：国际比较与我国实证

基于国际比较的视角,探讨人口寿命延长与延迟退休之间的机制关系,分析国际上人口寿命延长与延迟退休的实践。通过对我国人口寿命延长趋势的研究,在一定的精算假设下,测算延迟退休对我国养老金支付压力的影响,并分析经济、制度等因素变动对测算结果的敏感性。结论表明,我国人口寿命延长趋势显著,延迟退休能够有效缓解老金支付压力,但在不同的性别之间有所差异。经济、制度等因素与延迟退休之间具有一定的替代效应,尽管延迟退休是未来我国应对人口寿命延长的必然选择,但目前建立二者的调整机制条件尚未成熟。     

Have diffusion rates been accelerating over time?

It is widely believed that products are diffusing within the marketplace at an increasing pace. To empirically investigate this belief, diffusion model parameters are estimated for a large set of consumer durables in the home appliance industry, Multiple measures of diffusion rates are then computed and compared across products by year of introduction. Contrary to conventional wisdom, no statistical relationship is found. These results suggest that diffusion rates havenot been systematically accelerating over time.Thanks are extended to Vithala Rao and Donald Lehmann (editor) for their comments on an earlier draft, and to Howard Susskind and Eric Olson for their assistance with the data collection and analysis.     

中国预防“世界工厂”衰退的创新发展策略研究

本文首先对"世界工厂"生命周期理论进行了阐述,重点分析了"世界工厂"衰退期的新特点与新趋势。随后在分析金融危机对衰退期的"世界工厂"提出新的严峻挑战的基础上,提出了中国在"世界工厂"衰退期创新发展的应对策略。     

密切联系生活实际 提高语文教学质量

语言来源于生活,在生活中学语文,在教学中密切联系生活,这是"大语文教学观"的需要。教学中,通过"访一访,观察生活"、"演一演、再现生活"等,进而引导学生走向社会,走向生活。     

Does the diversity of human capital increase GDP? A comparison of education systems

This paper examines how different education systems affect GDP by influencing the diversity of human capital. We construct an overlapping generation model in which agents are heterogeneous in income and innate ability, and the final goods are produced with differentiated intermediate goods. It is shown that under a realistic condition, the diversity of human capital induced by income inequality always lowers the GDP of the next period, while the diversity of human capital induced by heterogeneous ability can increase GDP, if the produced intermediate goods are sufficiently substitutable and firms have a large span of control. Hence, as public education equalizes education resources across households, it mitigates the negative effect of income inequality on GDP, while the effects of ability tracking crucially depend on the production structure of the economy.     

日本大和生命保险倒闭案的教训

2008年10月10日,日本大和生命保险公司突然宣布倒闭。这是日本首家在金融危机中倒下的金融机构,也预示着这场肆虐全球的金融风暴正在向亚洲保险行业袭来。大和生命保险倒闭案已经为中国保险行业敲响了警钟。本文分析了大和生命保险公司倒闭的内外原因及背后的症结,并从中得出了对中国保险行业的一些启示,主要包括:处理好金融创新与金融监管的辩证关系;审慎有序地开放海外投资渠道;建立健全企业风险预警控制机制;推进评级机构向公允性、独立性及专业化发展;提高政府监管绩效;积极防范全球金融风暴向中国保险业传导等。