试析我国金融资产收益变动对寿险保费的影响

在金融资产选择理论框架下，利用时间序列研究了金融资产长期、短期波动对寿险保费的主要影响。并从居民投资角度建立了寿险与部分金融资产间的ECM模型，结果发现：储蓄增长对保费短期贡献大于长期贡献，加息会在短期内刺激保费增加但长期内有抑制作用；国债和股票受结构性因素影响未表现出与寿险保费有长期均衡关系。寿险公司在短期内应把部分储蓄转化为保费；在长期内应拓展新营销渠道，加快寿险产品和保障型产品的开发。     

Examining the relationship of work–family conflict to job and life satisfaction: A case of hotel sales managers

The study was designed to clarify the ambivalent relationships between work–family conflict (WFC) and measures of satisfaction. Both the direct and indirect effects of WFC on job and life satisfaction were investigated. Job satisfaction was also separated into two components: affective reaction and cognitive appraisal. Data were collected by a field survey of 121 sales managers from 26 hotels in China. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) indicated a critical role of one's affective reaction to his/her job in the relationship between WFC and life satisfaction. Specifically, the present study found that both work interfering with family (WIF) and family interfering with work (FIW) have significant negative association with an individual's affective reaction to his/her job, while only FIW reduced the cognitive appraisal of a job. Further, affective reaction, rather than cognitive appraisal, had a significant positive correlation with life satisfaction. Finally, FIW was negatively associated with life satisfaction. The results suggest the strategic role of family friendly human resource polices in hotels.     

互联网对党员生活方式的影响及其应对

共产党员的生活方式是无产阶级政党阶级属性的社会体现,是党员的现实社会活动的综合表现,其实质是党员以党性为基本规定所表现出来的社会生活稳定形式和行为特征。在政党政治时代,党员的生活方式问题具有某种公共性。互联网对党员生活方式具有复杂的影响,必须对党员的生活方式进行正确定位和积极应对。     

思想政治课教学的反思与回归

政治课教学的课堂不应该是没有生命力和灵性的“心灵屠宰场”,反思一下教学最终的价值取向如何,教学活动是预设还是生成,是否带有“绿色”,使政治课教学回归生活之中,让学生享受学习的乐趣,张扬自己的个性,体验人生的价值。     

预期寿命、生育率变动与基本养老保险统筹账户调整

在构建三期世代交叠模型的基础上,通过选取相关制度指标来模拟分析在未来预期寿命和生育率变动下,基本养老保险统筹账户如何基于参数调整来维持收支平衡。研究结果表明：（1）我国居民预期寿命增长过快,统筹账户收支平衡受预期寿命变化影响较大;（2）在现阶段的预期寿命和生育率条件下,统筹账户能实现自身收支平衡,而且可在短期内通过阶段性降低缴费率来促进制度长远发展;（3）在长期内需通过提高缴费率或降低养老金替代率来保证统筹账户收支平衡,预期寿命为87.828岁且总和生育率为1.79作为参数调整临界点;（4）以现有制度设计为基准,参数调整临界点之前保证35%的基础养老金平均替代率不降,临界点之后保证20%的缴费率不升可以最大程度促进经济和社会发展。     

流动性、生命周期与投资组合相异性——中国投资者行为调查实证分析

本文采用Probit和Tobit模型对中国居民的股票市场参与和投资组合的影响因素进行了分析,主要有以下的实证发现:首先,不流动性资产特别是房地产的投资显著影响了投资者的股票市场参与和投资组合,而且影响以“替代”效应或者说“挤出”效应为主。其次,投资者在进行投资组合时极少利用股票市场对其未来现金流所承担的风险进行对冲,也就是说,中国居民投资的“生命周期效应”不明显;第三,中国居民投资的“财富效应”非常显著。财富的增加既增加了居民参与股票市场的概率,也增加了居民参与股票市场的深度。     

寿险合同持续期的实证研究:一个契约的视角

本文将寿险合同持续期,作为研究的对象。以契约经济学的方法,分析保险合同,将影响持续期的因素分为:投保人特点、保险人行为以及契约外部环境。运用来自山东某人寿保险公司的保单数据,研究了各类因素对持续期的影响。极大似然估计的结果显示,三类因素对寿险合同持续期都有显著影响。其中,服务质量、职业风险以及定期存款利率对契约持续的影响最大。另外,收入、年龄、同业竞争,也对持续期有显著影响。     

IMPROVING HUMAN DEVELOPMENT: A LONG‐RUN VIEW

Abstract The pessimistic flavour of the Human Development Reports appears to be in contradiction with their own numbers as developing countries fare comparatively better in human development than in per capita GDP terms. This paper attempts to bridge this gap by providing a new, ‘improved’ human development index (IHDI), informed by welfare economics. The IHDI is presented here alongside the United Nations Development Programme's (UNDP) HDI for the world and its main regions since the late 19th century. Social dimensions in the IHDI are derived, following Kakwani (Journal of Development Economics 41 (1993), pp. 307–336), with a convex achievement function, whereas a geometric average is employed to combine its dimensions (longevity, knowledge and income). Thus, the IHDI does not conceal the gap between rich and poor countries and casts a much less optimistic view than the conventional UNDP index, while it fits with the UNDP concern for international differences. The paper's findings highlight main weaknesses in human development dimensions of present‐day developing countries.     

Assessing the role of components of life satisfaction

Factors affecting subjective well-being and their gross effect measurement have been widely studied. However, how people derive utility from these factors has not been fully explored. This article provides a way to decompose the gross effect of major determinants on life satisfaction into direct and indirect effects and make inference for the latter. Because the indirect effect is nonlinear in parameters associated with different models in an equation system, it creates a problem in estimating the standard error. Besides, the categorical nature in survey data further introduces bias to the covariance estimation even asymptotically. To address these issues without knowing the form of heteroskedasticity under the null hypothesis, we propose to extend the wild bootstrap procedure in this particular context. Its robustness against various data properties is validated via several simulation experiments. Using three recent waves of World Values Survey, we find that the relative importance of life control has significantly increased recently, and endowing citizens with the right to enjoy their freedoms and liberties is a more effective policy in raising life satisfaction than promoting national income.     

基于生命周期理论对食品安全危机下的企业危机管理研究——以三聚氰胺为例

近年来，一系列食品安全事件频发，给企业的危机管理带来了极大的挑战。以往的企业危机管理中多针对危机影响的不同程度通过良好的声誉，及时回应和一定的社会责任处理危机，使损失降到最低。本文以三聚氰胺事件为倒，利用生命周期理论，将危机发展分成危机酝酿期，危机爆发期，危机扩散期，危机处理期，处理结果与后遣症期，通过三家主要企业对不同生命周期的危机发展的应对方式进行研究，进而提出危机管理的相关建议。