民营企业的经营抉择:专业化或多元化

民营企业是专业化发展还是多元化经营,一直困扰着民营企业家。文章认为,目前中国的民营企业正在分化为两大趋势:一部分企业坚守岗位,深化自己产业的深度、纵度、精细化;另一部分企业则开始朝着多元化趋势发展。应根据企业规模、企业在本产业的发展潜力等具体情况,决定发展模式。     

A Note on Affordability and the Optimal Share Price

Despite the increase in institutional ownership, decreased trading costs, and increased real personal savings, we find that the average stock price is lower today than it was in the 1920s. In the aggregate, the propensity to split is a function of recent market performance, personal savings, and the desirability of appearing to be a small firm. Our results indicate that, after decades of inflation and the average stock price falling, splitting stocks to return to an "affordable" trading range must be rejected as an explanation. This suggests that other economic forces are behind splits, whether traditional or behavioral in nature.     

APPLYING A GENETIC ALGORITHM TO INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFICATION OF EQUITY PORTFOLIOS: A SOUTH AFRICAN INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE

This paper uses the genetic algorithm (GA) approach to generate a portfolio optimisation scenario of a South African investor who seeks to maximise return from investing in S&P500, FTSE100, NASDAQ, DOWJONES, CAC40 and the DAX from January 1, 2005, to January 31, 2008, but facing exchange rate risk. The GA searches for the optimal solution in the entire set of financial constraints without looking for partial derivatives of the utility function. Whereas most financial problems require a non‐linear and time‐varying model, the GA, with its survival principle of offspring chromosomes, is better suited to this type of problem than local optimisation methods. The performance of the GA is compared with two non‐linear models, namely the quadratic mean‐variance (QMV), which maximises the portfolio mean‐variance, and the quadratic variance minimisation (QVM), which minimises the portfolio variance. The results show that neither the QMV nor the QVM takes into account the domestic investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities and therefore does not provide any international diversification benefits. In addition, the bootstrapping scenario of 10,000 simulations reveals that neither the QMV nor the QVM outperforms the GA in terms of Sharpe ratio and flexibility in dealing with investors' risk attitude towards investing in foreign equities denominated in foreign currencies.     

Does conglomeration really reduce credit risk?

I quantify the effects of conglomeration on credit risk by first computing theoretical default probabilities for conglomerates and their hypothetical stand‐alone counterparts and then mapping them into physical probabilities using a comprehensive database of corporate failures. Comparing the credit risk of conglomerates with that of hypothetical stand‐alone firms, I report significant reductions in the annual probability of default for small firms. My results support the proposition that managers can have a strong incentive to engage in conglomeration, even if it reduces shareholder value and show for which firms this is the case.     

中国银企不良资产清算分析

从企业管理者、股东和债权人之间的利益分配关系看，目前我国还没有建立起一个以债权人为主导的企业筛选机制。建立和完善企业筛选制度，不仅是我国市场化进程中的一个重要环节．是实现资源市场化配置的必然渠道，而且是不良资产清算的制度保证：不良资产的多样化出售的目的主要是最大限度地以最高价格出售不良资产，为此需要在信用增级、公开操作原则、间接出售方式和完善的市场环境支持出售等各个环节上进行创新：“债转股”是常规不良资产清算手段难以奏效而破产清盘损失又太大时债务重组的最后一招．中国是典型的“政策型”债转股，并因此而生成了不少实施风险。中国的债转股要取得成功．一要建立健全资产管理公司的激励和约束机制，二要全力提高资产管理公司的能力．使其有动力也有能力高效率地完成任务。     

External adjustment

Gross stocks of foreign assets have increased rapidly relative to national outputs since 1990, and the short-run capital gains and losses on those assets can amount to significant fractions of GDP. These fluctuations in asset values render the national income and product account measure of the current account balance increasingly inadequate as a summary of the change in a country's net foreign assets. Nonetheless, unusually large current account imbalances, especially deficits, should remain high on policymakers' list of concerns, even, for the richer and less credit-constrained countries. Extreme imbalances signal the need for large and perhaps abrupt real exchange rate changes in the future, changes that might have undesired political and financial consequences given the incompleteness of domestic and international asset markets. Furthermore, of the two sources of the change in net foreign assets—the current account and the capital gain on the net foreign asset position—the former is better understood and more amenable to policy influence. Systematic government attempts to manipulate international asset values in order to change the net foreign asset position could have a destabilizing effect on market expectations. JEL no. F21, F32, F36, F41     

多渠道实现高校融资规模效益研究

1999年我国高校开始扩招以来，高校为了实现规模的扩大开始大量举债。极度扩张之后，高校贷款后遗症随后出现，经费有限，贷款期限短，无法短期还贷，光靠扩张规模已经不符合新时期高等教育发展的要求。要转变高校发展理念，重人才培养而不是重规模。实现适度融资规模效应，以往依靠商业银行贷款的方式则要转向政府、高校、社会三方的共同努力得以实现。     

Diversification and performance: evidence from East Asian firms

We examine the impact of diversification on performance for firms operating in different institutional environments during a relatively stable period and during a major economy‐wide shock. We locate our study in six Asian countries at different levels of institutional development. Results indicate that diversification negatively impacts performance in more developed institutional environments while improving performance only in the least developed environments. Even in the least developed institutional environments, diversification offers limited benefits when an economy‐wide shock strikes. Though successful diversifiers are sometimes affiliated with business groups, diversification is associated with poorer performance for both affiliated firms and independent firms. In sum, we find that the outcomes of diversification are influenced by institutional environments, economic stability and affiliation with business groups. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.