DIFFUSION MODELS FOR EXCHANGE RATES IN A TARGET ZONE

We present two analytically tractable diffusion models for an exchange rate in a target zone. One model generalizes a model proposed by De Jong, Drost, and Werker (2001) to allow asymmetry between the currencies which is often an important feature of data. Estimation of the model parameters by the method of Kessler and Sørensen (1999) using eigenfunctions of the generator is investigated and shown to give well-behaved estimators that are easy to calculate. The method is well suited to the models because the eigenfunctions are known so that explicit estimating functions are obtained, and because the state space is a finite interval, for which it is known that the method can be made arbitrarily efficient by including sufficiently many eigenfunctions. The model fits data on exchange rates in the European Monetary System well. In particular, the asymmetry parameter is significantly different from zero for three out of four currencies. An alternative diffusion model is presented with similarly nice properties, but with different dynamics that allow constant volatility near the boundaries of the target zone. No-arbitrage pricing of derivative assets is considered, and the effect of realignments is briefly discussed.     

Diffusion of Hospital Innovations in Different Institutional Settings

This paper purports to analyze a hospital's adoption of both product and process innovation as a quanta! choice. The impacts of this decision on physicians, while depending on institutions that differ between the US and continental Europe, are shown to feed back to the hospital, influencing the profitability of the innovation. Recent changes of hospital finance give rise to testable comparative predictions in both institutional settings     

A Tale of Two Cities: Case Studies of Group Support Systems Transition

Research shows that, under certain circumstances, people using GSS can be substantially more productive than people who do not. However GSS has been slow to transition into the workplace. This paper argues that the Technology Transition Model (TTM) may be a useful way to explain this seeming paradox. The paper presents a case study of GSS transition in two organizations – one where a self-sustaining and growing community of users emerged, and one where it did not. Following TTM, it explores the frequency with which users perceived cognitive, economic, affective, political, social, and physical value from using the system. Comparison of the cases reveals differences in perceptions of value along several of these dimensions that are consistent with TTM. The findings suggest the model may be a useful way to explain the transition of collaboration technology, but more research will be required to test the model more rigorously.     

How many pirates should a software firm tolerate?: An analysis of piracy protection on the diffusion of software

This paper examines the relationship between the rate of software diffusion and piracy. Literature suggests that tolerating some piracy can be justified since it speeds up software diffusion. The question is, how much should be tolerated? Using innovation diffusion models of software adoption by legal buyers and pirates, answers to this question are obtained for the three scenarios of monopoly, multiple generations of software and competitive markets. Results include, for example, that a monopoly should start with minimum protection of its software but well before the product has diffused half way, impose maximum protection and maintain it thereafter. The results provide important strategic guidelines for firms in the software industry for managing piracy.     

研发产业集聚与扩散——基于新经济地理学与深圳案例的分析

研发产业的空间集散与一般产业相比既有共性又有区别,对城市和区域的产业选择及定位具有特殊意义,值得关注和研究。基于新经济地理学框架和深圳案例的分析表明,规模报酬、要素成本及交易费用是研发产业集散的内在动因,中心与外围的联系互动是其与制造业及其他产业之间关系的空间形态,其产业扩散具备特殊的内部、外部路径。据此,研发业者、中心城市和周边区域可分别采取相应的产业攻略并加强发展互动。     

The diffusion of foreign divestment from Burma

We examine variation in the rate of divestment by multinational firms from Burma. We argue that in addition to a set of firm‐level characteristics known to impact divestment decisions, firms are also influenced by characteristics of their home country and the divestment patterns of others. Using data on firms operating in Burma during 1996–2002, we model these multiple influences on firms to divest. Our results show that beyond firm‐level concerns, firms divest in response to the political characteristics of their home country, including protest, the level of political freedom, and transparency of institutions. We also find that the centrality of their home country in the network of intergovernmental organizations impacts divestment patterns in interesting ways. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An integrated model for analyzing the development of the 4G telecommunications market in Taiwan

Previous studies of development trends in the telecommunications industry have estimated market potential but have seldom integrated analyses of customer preferences and macro-environmental factors (political, economic, social, and technological analyses). In order to more accurately analyze 4G technological trends and market penetration and provide implications for businesses and policymakers, we use conjoint analysis to analyze customers' preferences for telecommunications technology and integrate the results with data from scenario analysis and the Delphi method to address possible scenarios for the development of 2G, 3G, Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX), and long-term evolution (LTE) in Taiwan. We then use the innovation diffusion model to forecast the sales volume for these four technologies in Taiwan over the next 10 years. Finally, we provide suggestions for policymaking and strategic actions for 4G stakeholders.     

技术创新扩散环境的BP神经网络评价模型研究

构建了技术创新扩散的环境评价指标体系,设计了BP神经网络评价模型,并将二者结合,运用实例验证了该模型的有效性,从而为技术创新扩散环境的评价提供借鉴。     

农户生态耕种行为及其影响因素研究*——以江西省为例

[目的]为清晰识别影响农户生态耕种行为的主要因素,以期为加强耕地生态保护、保障农作物质量安全、提升农户耕种收益、实现农业现代化目标提供参考。[方法]基于江西省11市47县(区)1488份农户微观调查数据,在分析农户生态耕种特征基础上,运用二元Logistic和Probit模型对农户生态耕种行为影响因素开展实证研究。[结果]农户生态耕种10种具体行为的采纳情况差异明显,其中施用有机肥采纳程度最高,生态农业模式采纳程度最低。农户采纳生态耕种整体水平不高,但仍具备进一步推广的潜力。家庭劳动力比重、生态耕种成本认知、新型农业经营主体、法律法规认知、生态耕种收益认知、生计分化和生态环境认知等解释变量是影响农户生态耕种行为的主要内部因素,政府补贴、农田基础设施、生产交流程度、耕地质量变化和生态耕种信息获取难度等则是主要的外部影响因素。[结论]政府及基层管理部门应在推动农户非农就业生计、大力培育新型农业经营主体、加强生态耕种宣传与推广、完善政策扶持与管控机制等方面制定针对性的政策措施。     

A logistic regression point of view toward loss given default distribution estimation

We propose a new procedure to estimate the loss given default (LGD) distribution. Owing to the complicated shape of the LGD distribution, using a smooth density function as a driver to estimate it may result in a decline in model fit. To overcome this problem, we first apply the logistic regression to estimate the LGD cumulative distribution function. Then, we convert the result into the LGD distribution estimate. To implement the newly proposed estimation procedure, we collect a sample of 5269 defaulted debts from Moody’s Default and Recovery Database. A performance study is performed using 2000 pairs of in-sample and out-of-sample data-sets with different sizes that are randomly selected from the entire sample. Our results show that the newly proposed procedure has better and more robust performance than its alternatives, in the sense of yielding more accurate in-sample and out-of-sample LGD distribution estimates. Thus, it is useful for studying the LGD distribution.