Evaluating guilt arousing marketing communications

An empirical investigation was conducted to evaluate the impact of guilt arousing marketing communications. The results indicated that guilt as a distinct emotion can be aroused to the extent of changing message specific attitudes. However, it was not possible to change either global attitudes or behavioral intentions. One reason for the failure of guilt arousing marketing communications to affect global attitudes and behavioral intentions may be due to counterarguing on the part of message recipients.     

Optimal portfolio composition and the CAPM

It is commonly assumed that the CAPM implies that all investors hold a balanced portfolio, “the market portfolio,” and investors just determine the proportion of their wealth held in the market portfolio and the risk-free asset. That this is patently at odds with observed investor behavior is sometimes used to justify rejecting the CAPM. However, by assuming that substitute securities exist, in this paper we still obtain the CAPM, although investors neither hold all of the assets in the market nor a balanced shareholding in the assets they do hold.     

On specification testing of ordered discrete choice models

We discuss how to test the specification of an ordered discrete choice model against a general alternative. Two main approaches can be followed: tests based on moment conditions and tests based on comparisons between parametric and nonparametric estimations. Following these approaches, various statistics are proposed and their asymptotic properties are discussed. The performance of the statistics is compared by means of simulations. An easy-to-compute variant of the standard moment-based statistic yields the best results in models with a single explanatory variable. In models with various explanatory variables the results are less conclusive, since the relative performance of the statistics depends on both the fit of the model and the type of misspecification that is considered.     

Fluctuation Tests for a Change in Persistence*

In this paper, we develop a set of new persistence change tests which are similar in spirit to those of Kim [Journal of Econometrics (2000) Vol. 95, pp. 97–116], Kim et al. [Journal of Econometrics (2002) Vol. 109, pp. 389–392] and Busetti and Taylor [Journal of Econometrics (2004) Vol. 123, pp. 33–66]. While the exisiting tests are based on ratios of sub‐sample Kwiatkowski et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1992) Vol. 54, pp. 158–179]‐type statistics, our proposed tests are based on the corresponding functions of sub‐sample implementations of the well‐known maximal recursive‐estimates and re‐scaled range fluctuation statistics. Our statistics are used to test the null hypothesis that a time series displays constant trend stationarity [I(0)] behaviour against the alternative of a change in persistence either from trend stationarity to difference stationarity [I(1)], or vice versa. Representations for the limiting null distributions of the new statistics are derived and both finite‐sample and asymptotic critical values are provided. The consistency of the tests against persistence change processes is also demonstrated. Numerical evidence suggests that our proposed tests provide a useful complement to the extant persistence change tests. An application of the tests to US inflation rate data is provided.     

Unobserved Heterogeneity or Measurement Errors? Testing for Correlated Effects with Measurement Errors *

This paper addresses the problem of endogenous regressors due to the presence of unobserved heterogeneity, when this is correlated with the regressors, and caused by regressors’ measurement errors. A simple two‐stage testing procedure is proposed for the identification of the underlying cause of correlation between regressors and the error term. The statistical performance of the resulting sequential test is assessed using simulated data.     

数学命题在珠算硬、软件建设中的作用（下）——兼谈中进制理论的一项应用

运用珠算解决高等数学问题的关键所在，即珠算的硬软件建设。本文摒弃千年古制、万国常法，借助数学命题揭示珠算硬件、软件的内部机制，为应用数学和珠算开拓了广阔而崭新的研究领域。     

Factor prices and productivity growth during the British industrial revolution

This paper presents new estimates of total factor productivity growth in Britain for the period 1770-1860. We use the dual technique and argue that the estimates we derive from factor prices are of similar quality to quantity-based calculations. Our results provide further evidence, calculated on the basis of an independent set of sources, that productivity growth during the British Industrial Revolution was relatively slow. The Crafts-Harley view of the Industrial Revolution is thus reinforced. Our preferred estimates suggest a modest acceleration after 1800.     

Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements? A structural investigation

We estimate a small-scale, structural general equilibrium model of a small open economy using Bayesian methods. Our main focus is the conduct of monetary policy in Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the UK. We consider generic Taylor-type rules, where the monetary authority reacts in response to output, inflation, and exchange-rate movements. We perform posterior odds tests to investigate the hypothesis whether central banks do target exchange rates. The main result of this paper is that the central banks of Australia and New Zealand do not, whereas the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England do include the nominal exchange rate in its policy rule. This result is robust for various specification of the policy rule. We also find that terms-of-trade movements do not contribute significantly to domestic business cycles.     

Statistical Problems in Ancient Numismatics

In antiquity coins were struck by placing a heated coin blank between two dies and hitting the upper die with a heavy blow of a hammer. When a die wore off, a new one was engraved. So dies intended to be the same show small differences that may be observed on extant coins as "the varieties". Numismatists collect statistics of die varieties in as large a sample as possible of extant coins of a single issue they can find to study. From these statistics they want to estimate the number of dies used in producing the coin issue. To do this they need a parametric stochastic model describing how coins survive and become part of the sample. Several models are tried and tested against the data of two large samples, one of them new. (Few large samples exist). Estimators are reviewed and some related statistical problems studied.