On the Mechanics of Economic Convergence

Abstract. The speed at which an economy converges to its steady state is investigated by using a general non-scale R&D-based growth model. To accomplish this task, an analytical decomposition formula for the instantaneous rate of convergence is developed. By applying this decomposition to the model under study, the driving forces behind the convergence process are identified. Two convergence mechanisms are distinguished: the accumulation–decumulation mechanism and the resource–reallocation mechanism. The relative importance of the different convergence mechanisms is assessed using numerical techniques. Moreover, it is shown that the specific shock being considered might be crucial for the instantaneous rate of convergence.     

Satisficing behavior, Brouwer’s Fixed Point Theorem and Nash Equilibrium

Summary. We show that Nash Equilibrium points can be obtained by using response maps or reply functions that simply use better responses rather than best responses. We demonstrate the existence of a Nash Equilibrium as the fixed point of a better response map and since the better response map is continuous the fixed point can be established by simply using Brouwers fixed point theorem. The proof applies to games with a finite number of strategies as well as to games with a continuum of strategies. In case the games have a continuum of strategies the payoff functions have to be continuous on the action sets and quasi concave on the players action set.Received: 22 September 2003, Revised: 31 March 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D00, D40. Correspondence to: Robert A. BeckerWe have benefited from comments on an earlier draft made by participants at Indiana Universitys Microeconomics workshop (October 2002) and the Midwest Economic Theory Conference held at the University of Pittsburgh (May 2003). We also thank Roy Gardner for comments on earlier versions. We thank the Associate Editor, Mark Machina, for his detailed comments and suggestions. This project began when Subir Chakrabarti was a visitor in the Department of Economics, Indiana University, Bloomington in the Spring of 2002. He thanks that department for its support.     

Implementation and orderings of public information

We explore the relationship between public information and implementable outcomes in an environment characterized by random endowments and private information. We show that if public signals carry no information about private types, then an exact relationship holds: a more informative public signal structure, in the sense of Blackwell, induces a smaller set of ex-ante implementable social choice functions. This holds for a large set of implementation standards, including Nash implementation, and Bayesian incentive compatibility. The result extends the notion, dating to Hirshleifer (1971), that public information can have negative value to an endowment economy under uncertainty.Received: 23 September 2003, Accepted: 30 July 2004, JEL Classification: D80Colin M. Campbell: I thank two referees and seminar participants at the 2002 meetings of the Society for Economic Design, at the 2003 Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society, and at Yale University for helpful input.     

Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates

Recent empirical research shows that a reasonable characterization of federal-funds-rate targeting behavior is that the change in the target rate depends on the maturity structure of interest rates and exhibits little dependence on lagged target rates. See, for example, Cochrane and Piazzesi [2002. The Fed and interest rates—a high-frequency identification. American Economic Review 92, 90-95.]. The result echoes the policy rule used by McCallum [1994a. Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates. NBER Working Paper No. 4938.] to rationalize the empirical failure of the ‘expectations hypothesis’ applied to the term structure of interest rates. That is, rather than forward rates acting as unbiased predictors of future short rates, the historical evidence suggests that the correlation between forward rates and future short rates is surprisingly low. McCallum showed that a desire by the monetary authority to adjust short rates in response to exogenous shocks to the term premiums imbedded in long rates (i.e. “yield-curve smoothing”), along with a desire for smoothing interest rates across time, can generate term structures that account for the puzzling regression results of Fama and Bliss [1987. The information in long-maturity forward rates. The American Economic Review 77, 680-392.]. McCallum also clearly pointed out that this reduced-form approach to the policy rule, although naturally forward looking, needed to be studied further in the context of other response functions such as the now standard Taylor [1993. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, 195-214.] Rule. We explore both the robustness of McCallum's result to endogenous models of the term premium and also its connections to the Taylor Rule. We model the term premium endogenously using two different models in the class of affine term-structure models studied in Duffie and Kan [1996. A yield-factor model of interest rates. Mathematical Finance 57, 405-443.]: a stochastic volatility model and a stochastic price-of-risk model. We then solve for equilibrium term structures in environments in which interest rate targeting follows a rule such as the one suggested by McCallum (i.e., the “McCallum Rule”). We demonstrate that McCallum's original result generalizes in a natural way to this broader class of models. To understand the connection to the Taylor Rule, we then consider two structural macroeconomic models which have reduced forms that correspond to the two affine models and provide a macroeconomic interpretation of abstract state variables (as in Ang and Piazzessi [2003. A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables. Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 745-787.]). Moreover, such structural models allow us to interpret the parameters of the term-structure model in terms of the parameters governing preferences, technologies, and policy rules. We show how a monetary policy rule will manifest itself in the equilibrium asset-pricing kernel and, hence, the equilibrium term structure. We then show how this policy can be implemented with an interest-rate targeting rule. This provides us with a set of restrictions under which the Taylor and McCallum Rules are equivalent in the sense if implementing the same monetary policy. We conclude with some numerical examples that explore the quantitative link between these two models of monetary policy.     

履行承诺促进改革开放

本文分析了加入WTO对中国经济运行的影响以及在履行加入WTO承诺的过程中加速我国改革开放的有关问题。     

The effect of bank account ownership on credit and consumption: Evidence from the UK

This article examines the causal effects of bank account ownership on credit access and consumption by isolating an exogenous change in account ownership produced by an electronic transfer mandate in the universal UK Child Benefit program. Comparing households with and without children finds that the mandate substantially affected banking behavior, with an 8.6% relative increase in transaction account ownership. When households transition into account ownership, results indicate large increases in credit card ownership (89%), and household durable goods (55%). Similar changes are not seen in loan use, weekly expenditures, or vehicle ownership. Additional evidence from a panel data set indicate declines in the use of fringe bank credit, informal loans, and debt after households transition into bank account ownership. In total, evidence suggests that an important effect of owning a bank account is improved access to credit cards which enables durable good consumption.     

资源限制条件下的商业银行多点布局优选的遗传算法

文章针对资源限制条件下的商业银行多点布局优选的0-1整数规划数学模型,提出基于遗传算法的求解方法。利用遗传算法中随机搜索优化机制,能较快和准确地获得最优解。实例计算证明,与现有的求解方法相比,遗传算法具有较好的寻优效果,可以作为求解商业银行多点布局优选问题的一种新方法,同时对于其他项目群决策问题具有借鉴作用。     

Business Forecasting of Double‐trend Time Series: An Improved PLS‐based Time‐varying Weight Combination Approach

Business forecasting with double‐trend time series (long‐term trends and seasonal volatility) has been challenging due to its complexity. Neither a single time series model nor a fixed‐weight combination approach can fully capture the comprehensive information. We address this issue by proposing an improved partial least squares (PLS) based time‐varying weight combination approach. The proposed method can handle the relations both between the single models involved and between single models and time ordering with time‐varying weights. The test on 20 simulated datasets demonstrates the better and more robust performance of the method. We also apply it to three real datasets. The results show that our approach represents a significant improvement over the existing methods in terms of data fitness and prediction accuracy. Copyright © 2017 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interdependence or contagion: A model switching approach with a focus on Latin America

Empirical research analysing contagion has become increasingly fragmented. Different definitions of contagion have resulted in different methods being deployed to analyse financial transmission channels. This paper devises a novel econometric strategy where the nature of interdependencies, magnitude of interdependencies and transmission channels selected for inclusion can change over time. We thus appeal to multiple definitions of contagion, distinguishing between: interdependence, contagion through interdependence and abrupt contagion through changing linkages. Using our approach we analyse different crisis episodes in Latin America. Results generally indicate interdependence not contagion during the currency crises of the 1990s and Argentine crisis of 1998–2002. During the global financial crisis, results indicate abrupt contagion from the US to Argentina and Brazil. Mexico, however, experiences contagion through existing interdependencies with the US. Results also show that macroeconomic and uncertainty channels play a role during different crises not just financial channels. By establishing whether or not different interdependencies and transmission channels are present during different crises our model switching approach provides new insights.