International Trade,Entrepreneurship, and Monopolistic Competition： German Hidden Champions and Global Markets

The Chicago School of Monetarism dominates the debate on the competition models. In the last decades, the pendulum has swung back towards the German historical school of economics by List, Schnmpeter, Gutenberg, and Simon. The new trade theory by Paul Krugman is the standard in analysis of economies of scale and product differentiation in intra-industry trade. Chamberlin＇s product differentiation concept and monopolistic competition theory are included in Krugman＇s theory. Diversity matters in B2B-business in global markets. About 100,000 multinational corporations （MNCs） dominate the international trade of commodities worldwide but they need partners as suppliers of complementary products, services, and technologies, German hidden champions （HCs） that consist of over 1,300 mid-sized firms （Mittelstand） have revolutionizes the managerial economics. In terms of Peter Drucker, striving for leadership is the greatest gamble. Their success rate has been about 90% as Hermann Simon has reported. Their success recipe is the humble choice of markets segments, mainly B2B-industries, to make good business in any kind of goods and articles, not to follow trends or hit lists. The dilemma in EU-27-countries is that only Germany has succeeded to develop its own management doctrine initiated by Friedrich List and modified by Joseph Schumpeter. List argued that economic policy had to be adapted to the needs of specific nations to create the national system of innovation. Germany is the most diversified country worldwide. German small and medium-sized firms （Mittelstand） are globally oriented. Germany＇s family business is the unbelievable success story. Alfred Chandler has been a highly influential business writer. Because of Chandler＇s view, the personal capitalism was generally thought to be the old-fashioned model in comparison to the stock market capitalism. The Germany case is the strong evidence on the fact that Chandler＇s famous conclusion may be wrong. The family-ownership is perhaps the most sus     

Regime-shifts and post-float inflation dynamics of Australia

Australia's inflation rate and inflation uncertainty during the post-float era 1983Q3-2006Q4 have acted as important barometers of Australia's macroeconomic performance. The conceptualization and measurement of the nexus between inflation and inflation uncertainty is subject to complex dynamics. We use the Markov regime switching heteroscedasticity (MRSH) model to capture long-run stochastic trend and short-run noisy components. This allows us to conclude that in post-float Australia the results deviate significantly from the mainstream Friedman paradigm on inflation and its uncertainty. We also critically review the plausibility of rival paradigms e.g. Keynesian-Mundell-Fleming, Friedman-Ball, Cukierman-Meltzer and Holland, explaining this paradoxical behavior. The analyses presented here provide valuable insights to policymakers grappling with the challenge of designing monetary policy to combat the adverse effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty for Australia emerging out of the global financial crisis.     

0#空心胶囊灌装0.5g胶囊剂创新工艺研究

研究了关于0#空心胶囊灌装0.5 g胶囊剂的创新工艺,采用干法、湿法混合制粒技术,并采用国外最新辅料解决"因增大堆密度而导致溶出度降低"这一难题。结果表明,有4个品种0#空心胶囊灌装0.5 g胶囊剂采用该工艺后取得成功。     

Age‐Dependent Increasing Risk Aversion and the Equity Premium Puzzle

We introduce a new preference structure—age‐dependent increasing risk aversion (IRA)—in a three‐period overlapping generations model with borrowing constraints, and examine the behavior of equity premium in this framework. We find that IRA preferences generate results that are more consistent with U.S. data for the equity premium, level of savings and portfolio shares, without assuming unreasonable levels of risk aversion. We find that the relative difference between the two risk aversions (how much more risk‐averse old agents are relative to the middle‐aged) matters more than the average risk aversion in the economy (how much more risk‐averse both cohorts are). Our findings are robust with respect to a number of model generalizations.     

Financial Research in the European Region: a Long‐Term Assessment (1990–2008)

We provide a long‐term comprehensive assessment of financial research in the European region. As with earlier findings in Chan et al. (2004) , the European academic institutions, as a group, perform very well during the 1990–2008 period. Specifically, European institutions exhibit a steady increase in the share of global financial research. During the sample period, the top five institutions were London Business School, INSEAD, Sir John Cass Business School, London School of Economics, and Erasmus University Rotterdam. Subperiod analysis shows that some universities, such as Oxford University, increased their research output substantially. Many of the leading European scholars received their training and had prior experience in North American institutions. We find that a high ranking of the scholars’ affiliated and doctoral granting institutions is correlated with finance research productivity.     

Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates

Recent empirical research shows that a reasonable characterization of federal-funds-rate targeting behavior is that the change in the target rate depends on the maturity structure of interest rates and exhibits little dependence on lagged target rates. See, for example, Cochrane and Piazzesi [2002. The Fed and interest rates—a high-frequency identification. American Economic Review 92, 90-95.]. The result echoes the policy rule used by McCallum [1994a. Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates. NBER Working Paper No. 4938.] to rationalize the empirical failure of the ‘expectations hypothesis’ applied to the term structure of interest rates. That is, rather than forward rates acting as unbiased predictors of future short rates, the historical evidence suggests that the correlation between forward rates and future short rates is surprisingly low. McCallum showed that a desire by the monetary authority to adjust short rates in response to exogenous shocks to the term premiums imbedded in long rates (i.e. “yield-curve smoothing”), along with a desire for smoothing interest rates across time, can generate term structures that account for the puzzling regression results of Fama and Bliss [1987. The information in long-maturity forward rates. The American Economic Review 77, 680-392.]. McCallum also clearly pointed out that this reduced-form approach to the policy rule, although naturally forward looking, needed to be studied further in the context of other response functions such as the now standard Taylor [1993. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, 195-214.] Rule. We explore both the robustness of McCallum's result to endogenous models of the term premium and also its connections to the Taylor Rule. We model the term premium endogenously using two different models in the class of affine term-structure models studied in Duffie and Kan [1996. A yield-factor model of interest rates. Mathematical Finance 57, 405-443.]: a stochastic volatility model and a stochastic price-of-risk model. We then solve for equilibrium term structures in environments in which interest rate targeting follows a rule such as the one suggested by McCallum (i.e., the “McCallum Rule”). We demonstrate that McCallum's original result generalizes in a natural way to this broader class of models. To understand the connection to the Taylor Rule, we then consider two structural macroeconomic models which have reduced forms that correspond to the two affine models and provide a macroeconomic interpretation of abstract state variables (as in Ang and Piazzessi [2003. A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables. Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 745-787.]). Moreover, such structural models allow us to interpret the parameters of the term-structure model in terms of the parameters governing preferences, technologies, and policy rules. We show how a monetary policy rule will manifest itself in the equilibrium asset-pricing kernel and, hence, the equilibrium term structure. We then show how this policy can be implemented with an interest-rate targeting rule. This provides us with a set of restrictions under which the Taylor and McCallum Rules are equivalent in the sense if implementing the same monetary policy. We conclude with some numerical examples that explore the quantitative link between these two models of monetary policy.     

Housing,consumption and asset pricing

This paper considers a consumption-based asset pricing model where housing is explicitly modeled both as an asset and as a consumption good. Nonseparable preferences describe households’ concern with composition risk, that is, fluctuations in the relative share of housing in their consumption basket. Since the housing share moves slowly, a concern with composition risk induces low frequency movements in stock prices that are not driven by news about cash flow. Moreover, the model predicts that the housing share can be used to forecast excess returns on stocks. We document that this indeed true in the data. The presence of composition risk also implies that the riskless rate is low which further helps the model improve on the standard CCAPM.     

RFID系统的Matlab/Simulink建模及特性分析

首先介绍了射频识别（Radio Frequency Identification，RFID）系统的工作原理，阐述了系统的结构和模块划分；在此基础上使用Matlab／Simulink对RFID系统进行了模型设计；最后，利用此模型对系统进行了实验仿真，并具体分析了码间干扰和调制深度对整个系统性能的影响。     

Inflation and inequality

Cross-country evidence on inflation and income inequality suggests that they are positively related. This article explores the hypothesis that this correlation is the outcome of a distributional conflict underlying the determination of government policies. A political economy model is presented in which equilibrium inflation is positively related to the degree of inequality in income due to the relative vulnerability to inflation of low income households.