Urban proximity,demand for land and land shadow prices in Malawi

We assess the spatial and intertemporal variation in farmland prices using per hectare minimum willingness to accept (WTA) sales and rental (shadow) prices in Malawi. We use three rounds of nationally representative farm household panel data from the Living Standards Measurement Surveys (LSMS), collected in 2010, 2013 and 2016. The sample is split in quintiles based on distance from the nearest major city, building on the land valuation and transaction cost theory, and agrarian political economy perspectives on global and national land transactions. Generally, farmland shadow prices decrease with distance from urban areas. However, farmland shadow sales prices increased more sharply between 2010 and 2013 in rural areas (+100 % vs +30 % in urban proximity). The results indicate that the sharp increase in demand for large-scale land transfers following the sharp increase in energy and food prices also affected rural smallholders’ land valuation, even in remote rural areas of Malawi. Conversely, by 2016 land shadow sales prices were again, like in 2010, about three times as high in areas near urban centres compared to remote rural areas. Even though sales prices declined in remote rural areas from 2013 to 2016, rental prices remained high. Using farm household-level population pressure variable, we show that local population pressure is a driver of farmland shadow prices, indicating land scarcity challenges, growing demand for land, and poorly developed land markets. With increasing land scarcity, land markets are becoming more important and need to be factored in when formulating development policies that aim to improve access to land in both peri-urban and rural areas.     

Land use planning and the ecosystem approach: An evaluation of case study planning frameworks against the Malawi Principles

Global land use change continues to undermine the capacity of ecosystems to sustain ecosystem service (ES) flows. Much attention in policy and research has therefore been given to concepts, tools and processes for sustainable land use planning, including consideration of ES and the ecosystem approach. However, there are limited empirical cases or evaluations of ecosystem approach based planning from which lessons can be drawn. The aim of this research therefore was to identify and evaluate existing case study planning frameworks that have the potential to operationalise the ecosystem approach. Based on the Malawi Principles, a new suite of evaluation criteria was developed. This was used to assess case study documentary evidence and evaluate the extent to which the 12 Malawi Principles had been considered. The evaluation also assessed the planning methods/approaches used by the case studies and their potential to help translate the Malawi Principles into land use planning outcomes. Finally, a SWOT analysis was used to structure the main findings. Our results show that the Malawi Principles have been considered across the case studies “fully” or “partially” in 64% of instances suggesting, therefore, that the case studies present a reasonable interpretation of the ecosystem approach. However, poor consideration of biodiversity and environmental limits across the cases highlights the risk of land use management decisions continuing to contribute to the degradation of natural capital.     

The influence of farm input subsidies on the adoption of natural resource management technologies

Farm input subsidies are often criticised on economic and ecological grounds. The promotion of natural resource management (NRM) technologies is widely seen as more sustainable to increase agricultural productivity and food security. Relatively little is known about how input subsidies affect farmers’ decisions to adopt NRM technologies. There are concerns of incompatibility, because NRM technologies are one strategy to reduce the use of external inputs in intensive production systems. However, in smallholder systems of Africa, where the average use of external inputs is low, there may possibly be interesting complementarities. Here, we analyse the situation of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP). Using panel data from smallholder farm households, we develop a multivariate probit model and examine how FISP participation affects farmers’ decisions to adopt various NRM technologies, such as intercropping of maize with legumes, use of organic manure, water conservation practices and vegetative strips. As expected, FISP increases the use of inorganic fertilizer and improved maize seeds. Yet, we also observe a positive association between FISP and the adoption of certain NRM technologies. For other NRM technologies, we find no significant effect. We conclude that input subsidies and the promotion of NRM technologies can be compatible strategies.     

Adoption of Drought Tolerant Maize Varieties under Rainfall Stress in Malawi

We examine adoption of drought tolerant (DT) maize varieties using a four‐round panel dataset from six districts in Malawi. There is an increase in adoption of DT maize from 3% in 2006 to 43% in 2015 in our data. We focus on the effect of past drought exposure on adoption and the likelihood of DT maize being distributed under the Farm Input Subsidy Programme (FISP). Results show that past exposure to drought increases the probability of DT maize seed being distributed through FISP. Farmers who accessed maize seed subsidy coupons and were previously exposed to late season dry spells are more likely to use the seed subsidy coupon to redeem DT maize seed. The likelihood of adoption and adoption intensity (area under DT maize) are positively influenced by previous early season dry spells and access to seed subsidy. Previous late season droughts also positively affect adoption intensity. On the other hand, area share under DT maize is positively correlated with early season dry spells and past exposure to late season dry spells but negatively related to seed subsidy. FISP in Malawi appears to have stimulated adoption of DT maize directly through subsidy and indirectly through generating farmers’ experiences of the performance of DT varieties under drought conditions.     

Evaluating irrigation investments in Malawi: economy‐wide impacts under uncertainty and labor constraints

Irrigation expansion is critical to increase crop yields and mitigate effects from climate change in Sub‐Saharan Africa, but the low profitability has led to little irrigation investments in the region so far. Using an integrated modeling framework, we simultaneously evaluate the returns to irrigation arising from both economic and biophysical impact channels to understand what determines the profitability of irrigation in Malawi. Our results confirm that the returns to irrigation cannot cover the costs in Malawi. While labor‐intensive irrigation expansion leads to unfavorable structural change in the short‐run, the profitability hinges on low irrigated yields that fall far from expectations due to insufficient input use and crop management techniques. On the other hand, we find that the nonmonetary benefits of irrigation regarding higher food security, lower poverty, and reduced vulnerability to climate change make investments in irrigation worthwhile to improve the livelihoods of smallholders.     

Yield effects of climate-smart agriculture aid investment in southern Malawi

Binding resource constraints in many low- and middle-income countries aggravate food insecurity risk in the face of climate change. To help mitigate such risk and increase food security, international development agencies have invested billions of dollars in climate-smart agriculture (CSA) programs over the past decade. However, rigorous evidence on the food security impacts of CSA aid through crop yields remains scant generally, and specifically in sub-Saharan Africa. Most studies have not explicitly linked CSA adoption and yield impacts with CSA aid interventions among smallholder farmers. Here, we respond to this knowledge gap by estimating the impact of a major CSA aid effort (the United States Agency for International Development-funded Wellness and Agriculture for Life’s Advancement (WALA) project) on agricultural yields in Southern Malawi. Based on primary survey data from a sample of 808 households in the project area, we use endogenous switching regression and a control function approach to estimate CSA adoption and impacts on maize yield in 2016, controlling for potential program placement bias, selection bias in CSA adoption, and endogeneity issues. We found a 53% increase in maize yield among CSA adopters in the drought year of 2016. Results demonstrate that policies and funding streams supporting CSA in low-income, dryland contexts such as southern Malawi can have important impacts on food security by boosting crop yields in the face of increasing climate uncertainty and extreme weather shocks.     

Women's Empowerment and HIV Prevention in Rural Malawi

This study examines the impact of women's empowerment on attitudes toward HIV prevention using the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project (MDICP), a panel dataset of over 1,200 married women in rural Malawi from 1998 to 2008. Results indicate that an increase in women's bargaining power promotes adequate HIV prevention strategies, namely condom use within marriage and HIV-related spousal communication. Own income, language skills, and awareness of options outside marriage also play an important role. By estimating a constant for each individual in the sample, the analysis controls for the impact individual-specific, nonmeasurable characteristics have on attitudes toward prevention. It captures the impact of HIV campaigns and increases in HIV prevalence over time on prevention behavior by using (regional) time trends. The findings are highly comparable across different econometric specifications and suggest substantial gains from placing greater emphasis on women's empowerment to effectively combat the spread of HIV, particularly in developing countries.     

An in-depth examination of maize yield response to fertilizer in Central Malawi reveals low profits and too many weeds

We examine the productivity of fertilizer used on maize in Central Malawi using field-level panel data from over 1,200 observations on more than 500 fields over 4 harvest years. There are several novel aspects of this analysis compared to other on-farm fertilizer efficiency studies, including (a) precise and accurate yield measurement using crop cuts, (b) estimating the impact of timely weeding, (c) the use of data on multiple soil characteristics from a panel of soil samples, and (d) the ability to control for field-level fixed effects by tracking the same land over time. We find critical ecological and management threshold effects on fertilizer effectiveness at 0.94% soil carbon content, 57–58% sandiness, and weeding within 4 weeks of planting. Overall, we estimate lower yield response to fertilizer than reported in earlier studies: 2.6 maize kg/N kg under ideal circumstances, and statistically nil under many other conditions. We discuss the implications of our findings for farmers, policymakers, and researchers.