The information content of funds from operations and net income in real estate investment trusts

This study compares the information content of funds from operations (FFO) and net income (NI) in the real estate investment trust (REIT) industry. We find that models using FFO explain more of the variance in cumulative abnormal returns around earnings announcement dates than models using NI do. We also find that the information content of FFO differs across REITs of different sizes. FFO does not provide useful information to investors in the case of large REITs. Finally, we show that the gain or loss from sales of property is relevant to valuing large REITs.     

Vertical separation of transmission control and market efficiency in the wholesale electricity market

This study examines how vertical separation of transmission control affects the wholesale market efficiency in the electric power industry. We analyze a unique regional electricity wholesale market in the U.S. where initially restructuring only occurred in the transmission sector. Following a commonly-used best dispatch model (Wolfram, 1999; Borenstein et al., 2002), we simulate competitive benchmark prices and compare with the best estimates available for actual prices to measure price-cost markups of the wholesale market. Empirical results demonstrate that the vertical separation of transmission control led to a significant increase in market markups in peak-load hours, documenting evidence of enhanced market power. Although we also find a reduction in the price-cost margin in low-demand hours, we reserve caution for this finding.     

Bubbles for Fama

We evaluate Eugene F. Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns (1926?2014) and international sector returns (1985?2014), we present four findings (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash but not of a further price boom; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up, help forecast an eventual crash; and (4) these attributes also help forecast future returns. Results hold similarly in US and international samples.     

A new hub and spoke system proposal: A case study for Turkey's aviation industry

In this paper, we are proposing a multi-objective mathematical model for the selection of a newly constructed hub and spoke system. The objectives of this model are maximizing aircraft utilization and revenue whilst reducing the commercially infeasible network detour factor. The sensitivity analysis of the model is tackled using weights related to the objectives as well as the network detour factor. The number of available aircraft and the range that an aircraft can reach are also considered in this model. Since Istanbul has already got a hub and spoke system with busy airports on both sides of the city, the model is applied to three other major cities of Turkey, Ankara, Antalya, and Izmir. The test data consists of over 90 cities in Europe and in the Middle East. The data includes unit passenger revenues and operating costs for the segments, distances between cities and hubs, expected load factors and flying times of segments. The scenarios are tested under specific expectations of airline network experts and the results are visualized by using Pareto front graphs. Compared to other candidates, Antalya stands out as a good choice for a new hub and spoke system in Turkey. The results of this model could be helpful for airlines and other airports in Turkey in order to identify their potential and competitive position in relation to their counterparts.     

The securitization of gold and its potential impact on gold stocks

We study the market impact of a very successful financial innovation – the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund (GLD). GLD holds physical gold, and provides traders with a convenient and cost-effective way to gain exposure to gold. We find that after the introduction of GLD, the liquidity of gold company stocks declined, and their adverse-selection risk increased. Over the two-month period after GLD’s introduction, the stocks’ relative effective bid-ask spreads increased by over 15%, while their adverse-selection cost, as measured by the price impact of trades, went up by more than 30%. Gold stocks also experienced significant negative abnormal returns (−12% on average) in the month after GLD started trading. Our findings suggest that GLD attracted traders, especially uninformed traders, away from gold company stocks, and that the resulting negative demand shocks and decrease in the stocks’ liquidity caused their prices to decline. Our results show that existing securities can be seriously adversely affected when a new security enters the market.     

Pitfalls and perils of financial innovation: The use of CDS by corporate bond funds

We use the financial crisis of 2007–2009 as a laboratory to examine the costs and benefits of teams versus single managers in asset management. We find that when a fund uses complex trading strategies involving the use of CDS team-managed funds outperform solo-managed funds. This may be due to the greater diversity of expertise, experience and skill of teams relative to single managers. During the financial crisis, however, the performance premium of teams becomes negative, which may be because of the slower decision times of teams, which are especially costly during times of rapidly changing market conditions.     

IS FINANCIAL SUPPORT FOR PRIVATE R&D ALWAYS JUSTIFIED? A DISCUSSION BASED ON THE LITERATURE ON GROWTH

Many economists have long held that market failures create a gap between social and private returns to research and development (R&D), thereby limiting private incentives to invest in R&D. However, this common belief that firms significantly underinvest in R&D is increasingly being challenged, leading the rationale behind public support for private R&D to be questioned. In this paper, we attempt to clarify the perspectives of two sources: the theoretical literature on endogenous growth, and its recent developments in integrating a geographical dimension, and the empirical literature that measures the social returns to R&D in relation to the private returns. Ultimately, we are able to clearly distinguish among different types of market failures and compare their relative impact on the gap between the private and social returns to R&D. Two main conclusions are reached. First, systematic firm underinvestment in R&D is not demonstrated. Second, even though instances of underinvestment do occur, they are mainly explained by surplus appropriability problems rather than by knowledge externalities. This suggests the need for a new policy mix that employs more demand‐oriented instruments and is more concentrated on identifying efficient allocations among activities rather than merely increasing global private R&D investment.     

创业失败经验对连续创业意愿的影响——创业失败学习与市场动荡性的作用

基于经验学习理论，探究创业失败经验如何通过创业失败学习影响创业者连续创业意愿，以及市场动荡性的调节作用。对176位有失败经历的创业者进行问卷调查，结果表明：创业失败经验对创业失败学习和连续创业意愿均有显著正向影响；创业失败学习在创业失败经验与连续创业意愿关系间起中介作用；市场动荡性负向调节创业失败学习与连续创业意愿的关系，即市场动荡性越高，创业失败学习与连续创业意愿间的关系越弱。研究结论对于拓展创业失败经验与连续创业意愿研究、帮助创业者从失败中复原，以及激励连续创业具有重要理论价值和实践意义。     

非洲铁路发展需求分析与市场开发策略

中资企业面向非洲铁路市场,多以"广覆盖"的形式投入开发,一定程度上造成了资源浪费。为优化中资企业在非洲铁路市场布局以及资源配置,在分析非洲铁路发展现状、铁路网发展影响因素基础上,基于铁路系统需求度、铁路发展需求度分析非洲铁路发展需求,提出了非洲大陆49个国家高、较高、中、低4个等级的铁路发展需求度,同时提出非洲铁路市场开发策略建议,即:优化非洲铁路市场开发资源配置,分区域实施铁路市场开发及项目建设,创新合作模式、拓宽资金来源。     

Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?

In an economic context, forecasting models are judged in terms not only of accuracy, but also of profitability. The present paper analyses the counterintuitive relationship between accuracy and profitability in probabilistic (sports) forecasts in relation to betting markets. By making use of theoretical considerations, a simulation model, and real-world datasets from three different sports, we demonstrate the possibility of systematically or randomly generating positive betting returns in the absence of a superior model accuracy. The results have methodological implications for sports forecasting and other domains related to betting markets. Betting returns should not be treated as a valid measure of model accuracy, even though they can be regarded as an adequate measure of profitability. Hence, an improved predictive performance might be achieved by carefully considering the roles of both accuracy and profitability when designing models, or, more specifically, when assessing the in-sample fit of data and evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performances.