The nature of risk

A new paradigm for risk analysis is proposed. It is a holistic conceptualization which recognizes an intrinsic duality between scientific and social risk perspectives. It defines risk states in terms of a minimal but necessary set of properties and qualities of risk issues at various scales of resolution (macro, meso, micro), and aggregations between them. It is founded in a philosophy which recognizes knowledge‐based processes as fundamental both to life (and in turn physical aspects of risk) and to cognition (social aspects of risk). It is through these processes that explanations for risk states are to be found. Implications for risk management are noted.     

Is anticipation delicious? Visceral factors as mediators of the effect of olfactory cues on purchase intentions

In examining the way olfactory cues influence consumer behavior, this paper pays special attention to the crucial role of visceral factors — generally defined as ‘hot’ overwhelming urges driven by sexual lust, thirst, or hunger. Our investigation is limited to hunger driven visceral impulses, which we call ‘appetitive motivational drive states’. The results indicate that food aroma indirectly influences purchase intentions through the mediation of appetitive drive states such as taste anticipation, subjective expected pleasure, and taste enjoyment. Structural equation modeling demonstrated that food aroma as the predictor variable first activates taste anticipation, which plays a pivotal role in stimulating both subjective expected pleasure and taste enjoyment. Implications for marketing theory and industry practice are also discussed in light of the fact that visceral states can exert an unwelcome influence on purchase intentions and eating behavior.     

Power and developmental regimes in Singapore,China and Malaysia

This paper examines three developmental regimes in Singapore, China and Malaysia. In these three cases, heavy state intervention was necessary because their economies required significant economic restructuring. For Singapore, state intervention was necessary for the process of industrial transformation. For Malaysia, state intervention was necessary because the government wanted to reallocate economic resources as a means to deal with ethnic conflict. For China, state intervention was necessary in order to gradually “marketize” the socialist economy. The paper also briefly discusses the impact of the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1999) on these developmental regimes. It finds that for all three cases, economic restructuring was successful because of long-term and heavy state intervention. It explains that, unlike the other developmental states of Asia, these developmental regimes were able to undertake such significant restructuring because of the state's power base, which even managed to survive the Asian Financial Crisis. It concludes with some comments about the future of state intervention in a rapidly globalizing world.     

Efficiency and productivity in the Indian unorganized manufacturing sector: did reforms matter?

This paper analyzes total factor productivity growth of the unorganized manufacturing sector in India using several rounds of the large scale national sample survey state level data for 15 major Indian states for the period 1978–1979 to 2000–2001. Data envelopment analysis is used to compute Malmquist total factor productivity index and its components. The impact of economic reforms on efficiency and productivity is examined. Evidence suggests that total factor productivity registered a positive growth during the period in the country as a whole. Most states in the country witnessed higher total factor productivity growth in the post 1990s reforms period than in the pre-reforms period. Decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index shows that improvement in technical efficiency rather than technical progress had contributed to the observed acceleration in the growth rate. Econometric analysis of the determinants of total factor productivity growth demonstrates that ownership, literacy, farm growth and infrastructure availability significantly influence total factor productivity growth in the sector.

Conditional volatility persistence and volatility spillovers in the foreign exchange market

I investigate the magnitudes and determinants of volatility spillovers in the foreign exchange (FX) market, using realized measures of volatility and heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models. I confirm both meteor shower effects (i.e., inter-regional volatility spillovers) and heat wave effects (i.e., intra-regional volatility spillovers) in the FX market. Furthermore, I find that conditional volatility persistence is the dominant channel linking the changing market states of each region to future volatility and its spillovers. Market state variables contribute to more than half of the explanatory power in predicting conditional volatility persistence, with the model that calibrates volatility persistence and spillovers conditionally on market states performing statistically and economically better. The utilization of market state variables significantly extends our understanding of the economic mechanisms of volatility persistence and spillovers and sheds new light on econometric techniques for volatility modeling and forecasting.     

Firm survival in new EU member states

We analyze firm survival determinants in four new European Union member states (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia). We employ the Cox proportional hazards model on firm-level data for the period of 2006–2015. We show that in all four countries, less concentrated control of large shareholders, higher solvency and more board directors are linked with an increased probability of firm survival. However, an excessive number of board directors has a detrimental effect. Firms with foreign owners and higher returns on their assets exhibit better survival chances. Conversely, across countries and industries, larger firms and those hiring international auditors have lower probabilities of survival. A number of specific determinants influence firm survival in different ways, emphasizing the importance of country and industry differences when studying firm survival. We also document that, in an economic sense, determinants associated with the legal form, ownership structure and corporate governance show the most beneficial effects with respect to firm survival.     

Obesity of politicians and corruption in post-Soviet countries

We collected 299 frontal face images of 2017 cabinet ministers from 15 post-Soviet states (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan). For each image, the minister's body-mass index is estimated using a computer vision algorithm. The median estimated body-mass index of cabinet ministers is highly correlated with conventional measures of corruption (Transparency International Corruption Perceptions Index, World Bank worldwide governance indicator Control of Corruption, Index of Public Integrity). This result suggests that physical characteristics of politicians such as their body-mass index can be used as proxy variables for political corruption when the latter are not available, for instance at a very local level.     

Prospective tourist preferences for sustainable tourism development in Small Island Developing States

Tourism development is crucial for economic growth in Small Island Developing States, but its management involves trade-offs between ecosystem services and social and cultural identities. This paper aims to contribute to the debate around the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals through an investigation of the sustainable management of tourism and coastal ecosystem services. The paper presents a choice experiment and latent factor analysis to disentangle relevant aspects of sustainable tourism in Small Island Developing States for potential visitors. Willingness to pay is reported for the different factors revealing preferences variability for previous and prospective visitors. Pro-environmental attitudes influence individual tastes and policy makers should consider these traits in order to attract visitors and private funding. Our findings show that prospective tourists are interested in the wider aspects of the tourism experience which in turn require the careful management of social and environmental resources in Small Island Developing States.     

欧元区参与国经济趋同性研究

当前欧元区的发展已经历经10余年,越来越多的中东欧国家将加入到这一单一货币区域中来。单一货币在促进欧元区成员国和候选国的经济发展中发挥着积极作用,但是也不可避免地带来诸多问题。文章考察了欧元区的成员国和候选国在采纳单一货币前后经济趋同的表现,结论表明短期内单一货币对于参与国经济趋同的作用有限,但长期来看将有利于区域内国家的经济趋同。