Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates

The distribution of shocks to GDP growth rates is found to be exponential rather than normal. Their standard deviation scales with GDP^β where β=−0.15±0.03. These macroeconomic results place restrictions on the microeconomic structure of interactions between agents.     

Two currencies,one model? Evidence from the Wall Street Journal forecast poll

We use the foreign exchange forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyze the expectation formation process of forecasters for the exchange rates of the euro and the yen vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar for the period 1999–2005. We also compare the expectation formation process with the actual exchange rate process. We find that most forecasters have contrarian exchange rate expectations, but our results also indicate significant heterogeneity between forecasters. While the actual exchange rate process of the yen/dollar exchange rate shows negative autocorrelation, the dollar/euro exchange rate exhibits positive autocorrelation.     

晴天送伞,雨天收伞——对金融摩擦、信贷周期和企业融资难问题的分析

微观层面上,商业银行有着“晴天送伞,雨天收伞”的行为特征;而在宏观层面上,银行信贷也存在明显的顺周期性特征。本文构建了一个带有金融摩擦的新凯恩斯主义DSGE模型,把对宏观经济现象的分析建立在坚实的微观基础之上,从而将上述两者纳入到一个统一的分析框架之内。此外,本文还运用我国的实际经济数据对模型中的结构参数进行贝叶斯估计,并对模型中的主要经济变量和外生冲击做了脉冲响应函数分析。研究发现：微观层面上,商业银行的信贷紧缩和扩张行为是其在金融市场存在信息不对称问题下的理性决策;宏观层面上,银行信贷的顺周期性是由于存在金融摩擦所导致的;在如今经济增速下行阶段,风险冲击增强了银行的惜贷慎贷情绪,加剧了企业融资难问题。最后,本文根据模型模拟为如何缓解企业融资难问题提出了一些实际的可操作的政策建议。     

Manufacturers' brand advertising and how it influences manufacturers' and retailers' margins

This article describes the effects of manufacturers' brand advertising on the costs, margins and prices of firms in a real-life, 'dual-stage' world where manufacturers sell to retailers who resell to consumers. Unlike 'single-stage' models, which are frequently used by economists, in which manufacturers appear to sell directly to consumers or to deal with them through an inert distribution system, retailers in a dual-stage world neither buy nor sell as perfect competitors. Although in some industry structures advertising will raise prices to consumers, the welfare effects of advertising are far more benign in a dual-stage world. In intensively advertised categories consumers are more disposed to switch stores within brand than brands within store (just the opposite of relationships in categories where brand franchises are weak) causing there to be an inverse association between margins at the two stages. Thus, while intensive advertising will normally raise factory prices it will drive down retailer margins, often to the point that retail prices are below the levels that would be obtained if the industry were only lightly advertised.     

延长退休年龄能降低个人账户养老金的财政补助吗？

本文运用精算模型发现,当女性退休年龄延长至60岁,2039年及以前个人账户养老金的财政补助较现行政策下降0.3%至9.83%,但2040年及以后上升0.44%至4.67%;当男女退休年龄延长至65岁和60岁,2037年及以前财政补助较现行政策有所降低,但2038年及以后不断提高;当男女退休年龄均延长至65岁,2040年及以前财政补助较现行政策有所减少,但2041年及以后不断增加;即使改变任一参数设置,类似情况仍会出现。所以,延长退休年龄只能减少25至28年个人账户养老金的财政补助,之后政府负担逐年加重。     

The effects of tariffs on coalition formation in a dynamic global warming game

The prospects for cooperation on climate protection beyond 2012 are currently uncertain. Thus policy instruments which foster participation in International Environmental Agreements (IEA) are in demand. Among the instruments under discussion are trade sanctions. Multi-region optimal growth models are a state of the art tool for integrated assessment, but introducing trade sanctions distorts the competitive equilibrium, making it difficult to compute numerically. We introduce trade and trade sanctions into a model of coalition stability to assess the potential of trade sanctions to support an IEA. Trade is modeled by having all countries produce a generic output good, but adopting national product differentiation (Armington assumption). Coalitions are free to impose tariffs on imports from non-cooperating countries. We solve the model numerically using a refined version of Negishi's [Negishi, T., 1960. Welfare economics and existence of an equilibrium for a competitive economy. Metroeconomica 12, 92–97] basic algorithm. We then apply the model to analyze the influence of tariffs on international cooperation. The model suggests that there is indeed a significant potential to raise participation through trade sanctions, even when goods from different countries are nearly perfect substitutes. Furthermore we investigate the effect of trade sanctions on global welfare, environmental effectiveness, and the credibility of the tariff mechanism.     

基于DEA的我国省际高技术产业发展模式及相对优势产业选择

近几年来,高技术产业的发展一直是学术界的热门话题。应用数据包络分析（DEA）模型和聚类方法对我国省际高技术行业进行研究,对目前我国存在的几种高技术产业发展模式进行总结和描述。效率分析不仅有助于了解我国各高技术行业的区域发展情况,更为分辨各区域的优势产业提供了依据。在DEA分析的基础上,运用聚类方法对各省高技术产业发展模式进行了探讨。     

欧洲研发合作计划的演变及模式研究

对欧洲若干重要的研发合作计划进行回顾,重点分析了框架计划和尤里卡计划的出台背景,以及它们后续的变化和相关计划的发展,从而勾勒出了欧洲研发合作的演变轨迹,并对两个面向产业界的科技合作模式进行了深入的分析和总结。     

Linking Innovation and Firm Performance: A New Approach

Using the second Community Innovation Survey (CIS-2) for the Netherlands, we analyse the input and output stages of the innovation process and the links between the innovation process and overall economic performance. We investigate the existence of feedback links running from past economic performance to the input and the output stage of the innovation process and compare the results of a single-equation approach with the results obtained from a simultaneous-equation model.     

国际贸易与劳工标准挂钩的模式比较研究

虽然在世界贸易组织框架内是否将国际贸易和劳工标准挂钩争论激烈,但由于该问题的现实性,国际贸易与劳工标准挂钩已出现多种实现模式并存的局面。文章对现有的国际贸易和劳工标准挂钩的主要模式从约束性、经济性和有效性方面进行了比较研究,认为各种模式有其特点和适用范围,模式发展的近期方向将是ILO和WTO的充分合作模式。