欧洲研发合作计划的演变及模式研究

对欧洲若干重要的研发合作计划进行回顾,重点分析了框架计划和尤里卡计划的出台背景,以及它们后续的变化和相关计划的发展,从而勾勒出了欧洲研发合作的演变轨迹,并对两个面向产业界的科技合作模式进行了深入的分析和总结。     

A dynamic approach to the analysis of strategic alliances

The increasing trend in strategic alliance formation between major firms around the world, has prompted researchers from various disciplines to look at this phenomenon in great detail. In this paper, we review alternate approaches in the literature in this area. We then propose a non-linear dynamic approach to study the formation of competitive strategic alliances and contrast it with the traditional game-theoretic approach. The pros and cons of these two approaches are discussed with reference to a competitive alliance scenario. Dynamic models have significant managerial implications as they enable us to investigate ‘if-then’ type scenarios and project the impact of different strategies.     

Modelling short- and long-term effects in the aggregate demand for soft drinks

A dynamic regression model for non-durable commodity demand is specified based on the additive unobserved components seasonal model with causal variables. The seasonal component which includes retailer stock effects is modelled as a seasonal ARMA process with fixed temperature effects. The non-seasonal component incorporates both short-run consumer responses and long-run adaptation to steady-state growth paths. Aggregation effects on per capita demand caused by the increase of new consumers as real income grows are investigated and the resulting growth trends accounted for. It is shown that neglecting these trends in the long-run adaptation process is likely to produce biased predictions and misleading estimates of crucial response parameters.     

Forecasting inflation in the European Monetary Union: A disaggregated approach by countries and by sectors

Inflation in the European Monetary Union is measured by the Harmonized Indices of Consumer Prices (HICP) and it can be analysed by breaking down the aggregate index in two different ways. One refers to the breakdown into price indexes corresponding to big groups of markets throughout the European countries and another considers the HICP by countries. Both disaggregations are of interest because in each one, the component prices are not fully cointegrated, having more than one common factor in their trends. The paper shows that the breakdown by group of markets improves the European inflation forecasts and constitutes a framework in which general and specific indicators can be introduced for further improvements.     

A model for R&D performance measurement

R&D activities are increasingly costly and risky and, as a consequence, measuring their performance and contribution to value becomes critical. This paper illustrates a formal model for measuring R&D performance, based upon a balanced and synthetic evaluation of quantitative indicators from five different perspectives of performance: financial, customer, innovation and learning, internal business, alliances, and networks. The model is built in coherence with the suggestions coming from the theory of measurement in soft systems, which gives relevant guidelines for ensuring validity, objectivity and inter-subjectivity of the model. Then, an application in a real R&D setting is described, which helps to understand the model and to enlighten its main advantages and limits.     

基于相依违约的上市公司担保风险度量研究

本文运用基于相依违约的混合模型度量上市公司担保风险,并进行了实证研究。结果表明:此模型能很好的预测上市公司对外担保的违约概率,可对上市公司信用进行评级;在敏感性分析中,违约概率对波动率、无风险利率和相依结构比较敏感,这能为风险管理提供一定的参考。     

浅析北京市农产品物流系统的运营与发展

本文在运用系统观点分析北京市农产品物流发展现状的基础上,提出北京市农产品物流应该向农产品物流配送中心模式转型升级,发展"农超对接"、"农餐对接"、"社区直送"等新型流通模式,形成多渠道、多模式相互补充的农产品物流运营体系,并探讨了促进农产品物流发展的措施。     

政府与社会组织的互动模式——基于北京市某区的实地调查

在社会管理创新的形势下,来自诸多领域的社会组织与政府的合作已初见端倪。文章通过对北京市某区的实地调查,与政府相关部门及13家社会组织的半结构式访谈,从资金来源、项目实施、注册年检、项目介入四个维度实证研究了政府与社会组织的互动情况,并归纳出了四种合作模式,即强伴生模式、伴生模式、弱伴生模式、无伴生模式。     

技术创新理论模型的多维解读

本文从适用性、过程、知识、条件、领导力等五个维度对影响较大的经典创新模型理论进行深入分析,试图全面地再现作为一个完整体系的创新理论的各角度轮廓。适用性视角下的模型探讨有企业与新创企业这两种类型企业与渐近式或突破式创新之间的最佳匹配关系;过程视角下的模型则将创新划分为若干差异显著的不同阶段,逐个探讨各阶段创新的本质特征,以及技术在各阶段中的演化规律;知识视角下的模型探讨了产品的不同结构所涉及的不同类型知识、它们对于创新的影响以及产品的知识含量不同所产生的不同效应;条件视角下的创新模型则分别从微观和宏观的角度,试图识别除了技术要素之外对于创新成功以及竞争优势的确立产生影响的条件因素;领导力视角下的创新模型的研究焦点集中于管理者应该如何根据自身对于技术的熟悉度选择最有效的创新机制,以及领导力对于创新的作用。     

稳健的HAC法在多元平稳时间序列之间伪回归中的应用

本文在传统HAC法的基础上,将截断参数M设定为样本容量T,并推导新的模型显著性检验Wald*统计量的极限分布。通过比较分析,表明Wald*统计量能大大减少伪回归概率,且新统计量比传统检验统计量更加稳健,但是也发现新的统计量具有一定程度的检验水平扭曲,原因在于截断参数M的设定忽略了AR过程的持久性、MA过程的滞后阶等因素,从而导致Wald*存在检验水平扭曲,说明M的设定不当会产生伪回归和检验水平扭曲现象。