A model for R&D performance measurement

R&D activities are increasingly costly and risky and, as a consequence, measuring their performance and contribution to value becomes critical. This paper illustrates a formal model for measuring R&D performance, based upon a balanced and synthetic evaluation of quantitative indicators from five different perspectives of performance: financial, customer, innovation and learning, internal business, alliances, and networks. The model is built in coherence with the suggestions coming from the theory of measurement in soft systems, which gives relevant guidelines for ensuring validity, objectivity and inter-subjectivity of the model. Then, an application in a real R&D setting is described, which helps to understand the model and to enlighten its main advantages and limits.     

我国银行和地产类股价波动性对比研究

本文通过描述性统计和建立GARCH族模型,以2008年1月2日至2013年7月11日的银行和地产类股票日收盘价数据作为样本,对我国银行和地产类股指日收益率的波动性进行了对比研究。得到以下结论：银行和地产两类股票收益率序列都是平稳的,具有“尖峰厚尾”的特点,具有波动聚集性;两类收益率的波动均具有“长期记忆性”;均存在非对称效应。     

村庄选举和收入分配--来自8省48村的证据

运用1986—2002年间8省48村和家庭的调查数据,本文研究了村庄选举的引进如何影响村一级的收入分配,发现引进选举制度使村级基尼系数降低6·4%—8%。我们也分析了选举的时间效应,发现首届选举后的第3—6年间,选举降低收入分配差距的效果最显著。这些结论对正确地认识和完善村庄选举具有重要的参考意义。     

房价与经济波动的区制转移——基于STAR系列模型的实证研究

本文运用平滑转移自回归(STAR)系列模型定量分析了1998-2010年间我国经济波动区制转移(Regime Transition)过程及房价波动在其中的作用。研究结果表明,我国经济在受到外生刺激时会产生跳跃冲动,但能否出现区制转移现象取决于外生刺激的持续性,单纯依靠以往经济的表现不能充分地解释这种现象;房价作为外生变量有效地解释了经济波动中存在的动态转移过程,这表明房价波动中存在着先行信息并可用于预测未来经济走向。此外,经济波动转移过程并非不可逆转,足够的反向推动力能够扭转经济势头,这使得政策干预成为可能。     

福建省城镇居民收入差距对消费影响的实证分析——基于Panel Date模型的分析

运用Panel Date模型,针对福建省不同收入阶层城镇居民收入差距对消费影响进行实证分析,得出收入差距对消费特别是消费支出具有显著影响,同时得出福建省消费结构不合理的结论。最后提出从提高收入、缩小收入差距与优化消费结构两方面促进福建城镇居民消费的政策建议。     

Why do exports react less to real exchange rate depreciations than to appreciations? Evidence from Pakistan

We examine if and why export responses to real exchange depreciations are lower than those to appreciations. We document this asymmetric response using macro-level data for Pakistan and show that export adjustments after depreciations are less than one-third as fast as those to appreciations. We use product-destination level data to examine three complementary drivers of this asymmetry: (i) information frictions that increase the search costs of finding new clients; (ii) supply constraints related limited access to credit that reduce exporters’ capacity to scale up after relative prices become more favorable; and (iii) reduced prices in US dollars offered by international buyers after local currency depreciations, akin to a pricing-to-market mechanism. We find evidence of the three drivers explaining the dampened export response to depreciations. Policymakers in developing countries should consider addressing these issues to maximize export responses to real depreciations.     

ARCH族模型在上证收益率变动中的实证研究

股票价格的频繁波动是股票市场最明显的特征之一。利用ARCH模型及其扩展模型对上证综合指数的波动性进行实证研究,结果发现,我国上海股票市场收益率序列有明显的尖峰厚尾性、波动聚类性、非正态性以及存在条件异方差特性,波动的信息不对称性等特点。     

无技术优势企业对外直接投资研究综述

20世纪80年代以来,随着经济全球化趋势的不断加强,企业竞争空前激烈。在知识密集、产品复杂且技术更新和规模经济显著的行业,技术水平落后于国外企业的国内效率领先企业跨国投资日益突出,这实质上属于无技术优势企业对外直接投资。国外学者以单向溢出和双向溢出为切入点,构造了不同的两国双寡头古诺模型,以解释绝对无技术优势企业和相对无技术优势企业的对外直接投资,并进行了实证检验。本文在此基础上总结了其研究成果,并做了简要评论。     

政府与社会组织的互动模式——基于北京市某区的实地调查

在社会管理创新的形势下,来自诸多领域的社会组织与政府的合作已初见端倪。文章通过对北京市某区的实地调查,与政府相关部门及13家社会组织的半结构式访谈,从资金来源、项目实施、注册年检、项目介入四个维度实证研究了政府与社会组织的互动情况,并归纳出了四种合作模式,即强伴生模式、伴生模式、弱伴生模式、无伴生模式。     

Globalization,Gender And The Davos Man

Using Karl Polanyi's analysis of the social construction of markets in nineteenth- and early twentieth-century Europe, the paper applies his analysis to the formation of global markets in the late twentieth century. The paper argues that Polanyi's work needs to be engendered in order to take into consideration women's and men's different links to the market and to understand the construction of "economic man" gone global. The paper also addresses the feminization of the labor force across the globe and the possible effects on women's behavior and on the construction of "economic woman." The concluding section discusses alternative interpretations of this behavior.