Current account and credit growth: The role of household credit and financial depth

Understanding the impact of financial variables on the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policymakers. Evidence from a broad panel of advanced and emerging countries shows that an increase in credit growth is associated with a significant deterioration in the current account balance. When we examine the roles of the components of credit, we find that an increase in household credit causes a significant decline in the current account balance, whereas an increase in business loans has no significant effect. Therefore, our findings indicate that the significant negative impact of credit growth on the current account balance is driven by household credit. Furthermore, we show that total and household credit growth rates have a stronger negative effect on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. Our results suggest that targeted policy measures that curb household credit growth might be more effective to reduce external imbalances particularly at the early stages of financial deepening.     

技术创新理论模型的多维解读

本文从适用性、过程、知识、条件、领导力等五个维度对影响较大的经典创新模型理论进行深入分析,试图全面地再现作为一个完整体系的创新理论的各角度轮廓。适用性视角下的模型探讨有企业与新创企业这两种类型企业与渐近式或突破式创新之间的最佳匹配关系;过程视角下的模型则将创新划分为若干差异显著的不同阶段,逐个探讨各阶段创新的本质特征,以及技术在各阶段中的演化规律;知识视角下的模型探讨了产品的不同结构所涉及的不同类型知识、它们对于创新的影响以及产品的知识含量不同所产生的不同效应;条件视角下的创新模型则分别从微观和宏观的角度,试图识别除了技术要素之外对于创新成功以及竞争优势的确立产生影响的条件因素;领导力视角下的创新模型的研究焦点集中于管理者应该如何根据自身对于技术的熟悉度选择最有效的创新机制,以及领导力对于创新的作用。     

浅析攀枝花市陡坡生态退耕模式

本文通过分析攀枝花市陡坡耕地的立地条件及其分布特点，因地制宜地建立了攀枝花市陡坡耕地的退耕还林与生态设计模式，提出了退耕还林措施，并从区域经济发展与环境生态建设相协调的角度，提出了攀枝花市退耕还林后社会、经济、环境的发展建议。     

侠以武犯禁-中国古代治理形态变迁背后的经济逻辑

本文提出下述假说并对其进行了探索性的分析:不同治理形态的社会在追求效率、公平与安全三大目标的时候,最多能够同时实现其中两个。本文认为,东西方发展日益分叉的实质在于不同治理形态首先追求的目标存在系统性的差异。在此基础上,通过对秦汉之际多委托人治理结构向单一委托人治理结构转变的各项特征事实的分析和模型推演,本文厘清了中国何以走上并锁定在以安全为导向的单一委托人治理形态的初始条件,认为商人的官僚化将社会资源控制力从非主流治理集团牢牢吸纳并控制在主流治理者集团之内,此举消除了各类游侠生存发展的经济基础,对游侠的打击削弱了非主流治理集团的暴力依凭,汉朝以降各大一统时代均不能形成长期独立于政权之外的有规模暴力,是新的治理竞争者不能长期存在从而打破单一委托人治理形态的重要原因。     

MAJORITY RULE AND ELECTION MODELS

Abstract. This paper surveys the theoretical work that has been done on majority rule and economic models of elections. Section I provides an overview of the topic. Section 2 reviews the most important results that have been obtained about majority rule as an abstract collective choice rule. Section 3 identifies some alternative inferences that can be made from those results. Section 4 covers some models that include additional features that are present in political institutions where majority rule is used. Section 5 concentrates on some alternative election models and equilibrium concepts. Section 6 focuses on election models with abstentions and/or candidate uncertainty about voter behaviour. Section 7 compares and contrasts models where candidates are certain about what the voters'choices will be (contingent upon about the choices made by the candidates) and models where they are uncertain about those choices. Section 8 closes the survey by identifying some emerging areas of research.     

Time Series Modelling of Daily Tax Revenues

We provide a detailed discussion of time series modelling of daily data in general and daily tax revenues in particular. The main feature of the daily tax revenue series is the pattern within calendar months. Standard time series methods for seasonal adjustment and forecasting cannot be used since the number of banking days per calendar month varies and because there are two levels of seasonality: between months and within months. We propose a daily time series model based on unobserved components that allows for the classic decomposition into trend, seasonal plus irregular, but it also includes components for intra-monthly, trading-day and length-of-month effects. Such components typically rely on stochastic cubic spline, polynomial and dummy variable functions. State space techniques are used for the recursive computation of the likelihood and forecasts functions with special allowance for irregular spacing. The model is operational for daily forecasting at the Dutch Ministry of Finance. We present the model specification and discuss estimation and forecasting results up to December 1999. A comparative forecast evaluation is also presented.     

深圳多功能自由贸易区的模式选择与制度设计

近年来,全球范围内的自由贸易区发展迅速,并且出现了向多功能综合型转型等新的趋势。我国各类特殊经济功能区面临着向规范的自由贸易区转型的选择。在深圳建立多功能、综合型自由贸易区,符合发展中国家自由贸易区转型的新趋势,有利于促进深港经济融合。借鉴国际自由贸易区的做法,深圳自由贸易区要建成一个规范的自由贸易区,需要对其进行科学合理的政策和制度设计。     

创业企业如何通过资源配置模式与动态能力协奏实现战略转型

面临经济贸易全球化,创业企业如何协奏组织行为与组织能力、成功实现转型以应对剧烈变化的环境,已经成为战略理论研究的核心问题。选取蒙草生态为案例研究对象,通过探讨企业战略转型过程中资源配置模式与动态能力的相互作用,揭示资源配置模式与动态能力的演化进阶机制,剖析企业战略转型的内在机理过程。研究发现,①企业利用动态能力捕捉转型动因、促进企业形成与动因适配的资源配置模式,进而保证转型成功;②与各阶段动态能力适配的资源配置模式经历了资源转移内化-资源修补拓展-资源传衍共享的演化过程;③资源配置模式演进促进动态能力向感知能力-整合能力-学习能力-创新能力不断进阶,确保企业维持动态、可持续竞争优势。     

Beta lives - some statistical perspectives on the capital asset pricing model

This note summarizes some technical issues relevant to the use of the idea of excess return in empirical modelling. We cover the case where the aim is to construct a measure of expected return on an asset and a model of the CAPM type is used. We review some of the problems and show examples where the basic CAPM may be used to develop other results which relate the expected returns on assets both to the expected return on the market and other factors.     

中小银行发展如何影响中小企业融资？——兼析产生影响的多重中介效应

如何有效解决中小企业融资难是学术界和实务界普遍关心的一个问题。基于中国工业企业数据库数据,本文从企业微观层面考察了中小银行发展是否有助于改善中小企业借款融资状况,并利用多重中介模型对中小银行发展影响中小企业借款融资的中介效应进行了分析和比较。本文发现,中小银行发展能够显著缩小中小企业与大企业在借款融资上的差异,同时能够缓解紧缩货币政策对中小企业借款融资造成的负面冲击。进一步,本文从提高金融发展水平和优化银行业结构两个方面分析和比较了中小银行发展影响中小企业借款融资的中介效应。本文发现,尽管通过优化银行业结构也对缓解中小企业借款融资困难起到一定积极作用,但中小银行发展更主要是通过提高金融发展水平来改善中小企业借款融资状况。本文的研究对于我国中小企业融资问题的解决具有重要的参考价值。