以制度创新为牵引加强和改进党内民主建设

中国共产党十分注重党内民主建设。当前,应坚持以制度创新为牵引,进一步改进和完善党员权利保障制度、逐步改进党内选举制度、改革和完善党的代表大会制,促进党内民主建设,推动党的建设全面发展。     

Electoral Balancing in Federal and Sub-national Elections: The Case of Canada

The major premise of this study is that in federal countries voters can balance and moderate national policy by dividing electoral support between different parties in federal and sub-national elections. We compare the non-concurrent federal and provincial elections in Canada to assess the balancing properties of sub-national elections. The balancing hypothesis implies that the federal incumbent party may suffer additional electoral losses in provincial elections. We use several statistical tests - ordinary OLS, fixed effect and unbalanced random effect cross-section time series - to analyze Canadian electoral data for the period of 1949-1997. All tests sustain that the incumbent party at the federal level loses votes in provincial elections.     

支持模式：农村妇女进村委——基于六种模式的比较与借鉴

当前农村妇女占农村总人口半数以上,经济政治女性化是农村今后相当长一段时间内的突出表现。农村妇女已成为村庄的核心力量,也是参与村委会选举、推动村委会选举制度不断完善的重要力量,其参与村民自治的重要性毋庸讳言,然而妇女进村委的比例很低。造成这种状况的原因众多,有经济制约论、文化不利论、角色冲突论、资源有限论、妇女弱势论等等,文章仅从选举制度层面加以阐释,通过对现有的具有代表性的六种模式的比较,找出各种模式的可借鉴之处。     

Constitutional Implications of Electoral Assumptions

The paper discusses the implications of three models of elections (the median voter model, the proportional representation model, and the probabilistic voting model) on three functions of constitutional rules (constraining the majority of the people, monitoring political and bureaucratic agents, and keeping separate the levels of constitutional rules and of ordinary politics).     

Elections, Land and the Politics of Opposition in Matabeleland

In the run up to the elections of June 2000, President Robert Mugabe promised to deliver land to the people; he sought to rede?ne the rural areas as the moral heart of the nation, and used veterans from the liberation war to spear‐head occupations of largely white‐owned commercial farmland. ZANU‐PF's electoral campaign succeeded in large swathes of the countryside, but it was notably unsuccessful in Matabeleland. In rural (as well as urban) Matabeleland, ZANU‐PF experienced a massive, and largely unanticipated, electoral defeat. Here we explore the reasons behind rural Matabeleland's electoral results. Our discussion focuses on three districts of Matabeleland North (Nkayi, Lupane and Hwange), where we investigate the dynamics of particular land occupations, both major parties' electoral campaigns and local re?ections on the electoral outcome and the ongoing politics of land.We stress the importance of the legacies of ZAPU's nationalism, of post Independence state violence, of perceived economic neglect and the particular agrarian dynamics of this region.     

Learning about challengers

We examine a political agency problem in repeated elections where an incumbent runs against a challenger from the opposing party, whose policy preferences are unknown by voters. We first ask: do voters benefit from attracting a pool of challengers with more moderate ideologies? When voters and politicians are patient, moderating the ideology distribution of centrist and moderate politicians (those close to the median voter) reduces voter welfare by reducing an extreme incumbent's incentives to compromise. We then ask: do voters benefit from informative signals about a challenger's true ideology? We prove that giving voters informative, but sufficiently noisy, signals always harm voters, because they make it harder for incumbents to secure re-election.     

物流实践型人才素质可持续提升模式研究

通过分析物流行业员工进修培训需求现状,构架物流实践型人才素质可持续提升模型,创新了"定期定向回招进修培训"子模型,将政府、高校、行业企业、协会等多方主体扩充到从业者进修培训平台中,克服单独依靠企业自身开展培训进修的瓶颈约束,多协同方共同完成物流从业员工进修培训,提升物流行业整体作业水平和行业素质。     

From 2000 Bush–Gore to 2006 Italian elections: voting at fifty-fifty and the contrarian effect

A sociophysical model for opinion dynamics is shown to embody a series of recent western hung national votes all set at the unexpected and very improbable edge of a fifty-fifty score. It started with the Bush–Gore 2000 American presidential election, followed by the 2002 Stoiber–Schröder, then the 2005 Schröder–Merkel German elections, and finally the 2006 Prodi-Berlusconi Italian elections. In each case, the country was facing drastic choices, the running competing parties were advocating very different programs and millions of voters were involved. Moreover, polls were given a substantial margin for the predicted winner. While all these events were perceived as accidental and isolated, our model suggests that indeed they are deterministic and obey to one single universal phenomena associated to the effect of contrarian behavior on the dynamics of opinion forming. The not hung Bush–Kerry 2004 presidential election is shown to belong to the same universal frame. To conclude, the existence of contrarians hints at the repetition of hung elections in the near future.     

Turnout in concurrent elections: Evidence from two quasi-experiments in Italy

We study the effects of different types of concurrent elections using individual-level administrative and survey data from Italy. Exploiting different voting ages for the two Houses of Parliament in a voter-level Regression Discontinuity Design, we find no effect of Senate voting eligibility on voter turnout or information acquisition. We also estimate city-level Differences-in-Differences showing that concurrent high-salience municipal elections increase turnout in lower-salience provincial and European elections, but not vice-versa. These concurrency effects are concentrated in municipalities in the South of Italy, possibly due to weaker political parties and lower levels of social capital.     

Election forecasts: Cracking the Danish case

Election forecasting models based on voting theories and estimated via regression analysis are routinely available for virtually all advanced industrial democracies. Denmark, however, offers an exception, for no such prediction equations have been published on the Danish case. This absence has sometimes been attributed to the puzzling nature of economic voting there, along with the complexity of its multi-party system, which renders formulation of the dependent variable problematic. We attempt to overcome these obstacles, offering a “synthetic” forecasting model for Danish national election outcomes, 1964–2015. The regression model, based on the variables of economic growth and vote intention, performs well, by various tests. Finally, we apply it, ex ante fashion, to the 2019 contest, where the prediction favored the Social Democratic led coalition, an outcome that came to pass.