The business case of a network that serves both public safety and commercial subscribers

Deploying a single nationwide broadband wireless network to serve all public safety users would have great advantages over the existing fragmented public safety systems. A nationwide system could be created to serve both public safety and commercial subscribers, which would allow a provider to exploit important economies but force it to meet the more costly requirements of public safety. This paper analyzes the viability of a public-private partnership that serves public safety and commercial subscribers from a for-profit provider's perspective. A model is presented that estimates the net present value (NPV) of a wireless network by calculating costs based on the number of cell sites required and revenue based on the projected number of subscribers acquired. The model is applied to both a network that serves only commercial subscribers on 10 MHz of 700 MHz spectrum and a public-private partnership that serves commercial subscribers and public safety personnel on 20 MHz of 700 MHz spectrum. It is found that NPV is greater for the public-private partnership than for the commercial-only network for any population density, which shows that the value of 10 MHz of spectrum exceeds the cost of meeting public safety requirements. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates that NPV/cell increases with population density, so urban areas are profitable and rural areas are unprofitable. The paper demonstrates that a partnership covering 94% of the US population breaks even because the most urban 56% of population subsidizes coverage for the next 38%. If initial deployment is subsidized, a financially sustainable public-private partnership can serve much more than 94%. Additionally, it is shown that allowing urban municipalities to opt-out of the partnership can significantly increase the subsidies required.     

期权理论在IT项目风险管理中的应用

本文简要介绍了金融期权和IT项目期权的含义,以及期权定价模型,详细分析了IT项目期权的类型和IT项目期权的套期保值,其中对比分析了NPV方法和期权方法(B-S模型)在评估IT项目中的差异。     

Excel在投资项目概率分析中的应用

当前绝大多数财务评价分析者不会编程且仅熟悉Excel的基本应用,所以在财务评价中较少作概率分析,从而严重影响了投资项目财务评价质量。探讨如何使不会编程的财务分析者利用Excel进行投资项目的概率分析。给出概率的一般过程;常见分布函数随机数产生的过程及其在Excel中的具体实现方式;结合案例演示了Excel在概率分析中的具体运用及其处理技巧。该应用方法能使大多数的财务评价分析人员能够进行投资项目的概率分析,提高项目财务评价的质量。     

Achieving low-cost UMTS networks via pricing

One of the main concerns of mobile operators towards deployment of Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) networks is the investment cost. The costly radio access network, based on the network equipment required in a service area, prevents incumbents and new entrants from upgrading or building a new UMTS network. In this article, a novel, low-cost approach to the UMTS radio access network design is proposed. The approach employs the use of pricing incentives. This approach is based on the assumption that a pricing mechanism is in place to control excessive traffic load during peak periods. By incorporating this assumption into the network design, the network designer is able to relax certain design parameters, which may contribute to significant savings in equipment cost. Investigation is focused on the UMTS coverage and capacity planning, using the Net Present Value (NPV) financial analysis. For certain price-sensitivity levels, the analysis indicates that this approach provides a suitable strategy for mobile operators to comfortably move forward with UMTS upgrade and gain competitive edge in the wireless market.     

项目投资决策评价指标研究

企业进行项目投资必须对项目进行可行性分析与评价,其使用的评价指标方法在不考虑风险因素的情况下,主要有静态投资评价法和动态投资评价法,文章介绍了5种评价方法,并且分析了每种评价方法的适用情况,得出净现值法为一般项目投资的最优方法的结论。     

基于净现值指标的概率分析研究

研究了经济评价中的概率分析问题。在敏感性分析的基础上,对主要评价指标—项目净现值的概率分析引用了一种新的方法,实例表明该方法简单可行,为项目经济评价工作提供了新的思路。     

The non-neutrality of debt in investment timing: a new NPV rule

Summary Limited liability debt financing of irreversible investments can affect investment timing through an entrepreneur’s option value, even after compensating a lender for expected default losses. This non-neutrality of debt arises from an entrepreneur’s unique investment opportunity, and it is shown in a standard model of irreversible investment that includes the equilibrium effect of a competitive lending sector. The analysis is partial, in that it takes as exogenously given an entrepreneur’s use of debt. Intuitively, limited liability lowers downside risk for the entrepreneur by truncating the lower tail of risks, and lowers the investment threshold. Compensating the lender for expected default losses reduces project profitability to the entrepreneur, and increases the investment threshold. The net effect is negative, because lower downside risk has an additional impact on the option value of delaying investment. The standard NPV rule in real options theory implicitly assumes debt to be neutral. With non-neutrality of debt, an investment threshold is higher than investment cost, but lower than the standard NPV rule. Comparisons with other standard investment thresholds show similar relationships.     

实物期权在风险投资项目中的应用

在风险投资决策中,传统的方法是采用净现值(NPV)法,用NPV值的大小衡量项目的价值和接受的程度。但这种方法存在不利于方案的选择和优化的缺陷。基于此,本文将对传统风险投资决策方法的缺陷进行分析,并在此基础上引入实物期权理论的风险投资决策模型。     

国内外汇投资机构开设外汇虚盘交易的价值评估

通过对国家宏观金融政策的分析,国内开放外汇虚盘交易市场只是时间迟早的问题;针对这一潜在的发展机会,本文采用期权的鞅定价方法,假设国内开放外汇虚盘交易市场的时间为服从指数分布的随机变量T,外汇投资机构的日成交量服从几何布朗运动,对有效执行时刻为随机的新设项目进行实物期权分析并做了价值评估,进而对外汇投资机构的总价值进行评估,并讨论了最优的执行时刻及最佳的有效执行时刻,具有重要的现实意义和借鉴作用.     

现金附加值(CVA)模型及其在投资中的应用

在进行投资项目可行性评估及决策时，绝大多数企业采用现金流量模式。然而一旦项目被采纳执行后，现金流量模式将被遗弃，而采用基于会计模式的业绩评价指标进行投资业绩评价，这使得企业内部财务管理系统失去了前后一致性。由于NPV模型是建立在项目整个投资期内现金流量的基础上的，而投资业绩评价需要在投资过程中进行，因此NPV模型不能满足投资业绩评价的要求。建立在现金流量模式上的CVA模型周期化计算NPV，弥补了NPV模型的不足，同时满足投资分析和投资业绩评价的要求。