人口结构变迁与经常账目失衡

世界范围内持续多年的经常账目失衡并不鲜见,以往研究多关注汇率和净出口的关系,而忽视了经常账目余额的另外一种属性——本国在外国的储蓄。本文尝试从人口结构变迁的角度对这一问题给出新的解释。本文通过构建包括幼年抚养比和老年抚养比的世代交替模型,理论分析和预测了：幼年抚养比上升会降低储蓄率、增加投资率,从而减少经常账目余额;而老年抚养比下降会提高储蓄率,增加经常账目余额;试图填补人口结构对经常账目影响的理论空白。接下来,本文利用1990年至2011年全球110个国家的强平衡面板数据进行实证分析,在静态和动态模型下均得到了与理论预测相一致的稳健结果。根据实证结果进行定量分析,本文发现中国抚养比的变化可以解释1990年至2007年间经常账目余额占GDP比重16.6%的变动。     

Two-Sided Bounds for Ruin Probabilities when the Adjustment Coefficient does not Exist

In this paper, we derive two-sided bounds for the ruin probability in the compound Poisson risk model when the adjustment coefficient of the individual claim size distribution does not exist. These bounds also apply directly to the tails of compound geometric distributions. The upper bound is tighter than that of Dickson (1994). The corresponding lower bound, which holds under the same conditions, is tighter than that of De Vylder and Goovaerts (1984). Even when the adjustment coefficient exists, the upper bound is, in some cases, tighter than Lundberg's bound. These bounds are applicable for any positive distribution function with a finite mean. Examples are given and numerical comparisons with asymptotic formulae for the ruin probability are also considered.     

Distribution of parallel exchange rates in African countries

This paper investigates the distribution of parallel exchange rates in African countries using exploratory data analysis techniques and model fitting. Stable laws are fitted to empirical distributions using the maximum likelihood estimation method. Empirical evidence supports the stable hypothesis these distributions are positively skewed and have tails that are much heavier than Gaussian counterparts. The stable hypothesis is further supported by the “converging variance test,” which suggests that these distributions have infinite variance.     

中国会计准则国际协调效果的实证研究

自改革开放以来,我国进行了一系列旨在加强会计准则国际协调的改革,会计信息编报者和使用评价者都十分关心会计准则国际协调的效果。本文在借鉴国内外相关研究的基础上,采用实证研究方法从纵向上比较和分析AB股公司的净利润差异与会计信息价值相关性的变化,以期对我国会计准则国际协调的总体效果做出经验性评价。     

沪深权证价格偏离分析

沪深证券市场权证理论价格与权证市场价格的偏离现象主要不是理论定价公式的输入变量误差导致的,而是因为股票收益率与权证收益率之间的相关系数与理论预期不一致,乃至相冲突所导致的。权证理论价格与市场价格偏离的主要原因是在当前的交易制度安排下,由于市场限制(摩擦)抑制了套利交易,导致权证市场投机交易占主导,以致权证市场价格偏离长期均衡水平。     

国际贸易模型中的汇率变量研究

随着汇率波动的加剧,汇率对贸易的影响凸现.古典与新古典主义因所处于固定汇率体制中的金本位时期,所以并未给以汇率以足够的重视;凯恩斯主义在其需求分析的框架中研究汇率,因此其汇率分析也必然带有凯恩斯主义固有的缺陷--缺乏较坚实的微观基础;新国际贸易理论在产业内贸易框架中分析汇率变量.缺乏宏观高度.本文基于浮动汇率前提,试在宏观经济层面寻找国际贸易中汇率变量的微观基础,并给出程式化分析.     

中国最佳上市家族企业50强中医药类企业财务评价

本文选取了福布斯中国最佳上市家族企业50强中8家医药类家族企业近5年的财务数据为样本。一方面,通过分析家族企业自身优势和特点来阐述家族企业的自身发展潜力;另一方面,从比率分析和业绩指标等财务视角分析我国医药类上市家族企业的成长能力。从财务角度剖析医药类上市家族企业成功的内在驱动力,并为企业内外投资者提供借鉴。     

我国开放式基金赎回问题的实证分析

我国开放式基金自诞生以来，得到了迅猛发展，但始终面临较大的赎回压力，本文对我国开放式基金面临的赎回问题进行了描述，从实证角度对影响开放式基金的因素进行了分析，并从基金监管者、基金管理公司、基金投资者三个层面提出了建议。     

我国外部均衡调节中的估值效应分析

世界金融一体化促进各国对外资产与负债迅速增长。资产价格的非预期变化使一国对外净资产更多地暴露于资本收益和损失风险中,因此,如何实现有利于一国外部均衡的估值效应就显得日益重要。本文对估值效应的理论模型和计量方法进行梳理,并对我国对外净资产变化中的估值效应进行实证分析,结果发现存在负的估值效应,表明我国通过经常项目盈余所聚积的大量资源正在不断地向国外无偿转移,这就要求对外资产管理水平稳步提高。     

Does transition to IFRS substantially affect key financial ratios in shareholder-oriented common law regimes? Evidence from the UK

This paper provides evidence of how a transition to IFRS affects key financial ratios and the pertinent financial statement items. Building on Lantto and Sahlström's (2009) evidence from creditor-oriented code law regimes, we examine the impact of IFRS transition on listed companies in the shareholder-oriented common law regime of the UK. The study contributes two insights: First – despite their similarities – conversion from the UK General Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) to IFRS leads to substantial differences in key financial ratios. These even surpass differences reported by companies in creditor-oriented code law regimes. We find that medians of profitability ratios increased substantially: Operating Income Margin (OPM) increased by 10.8%, Return on Equity (ROE) by 27.0%, and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) by 14.4%. The Current Ratio (CR) and Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio also exhibit significant but less drastic changes of 4.2% and − 2.9%, respectively. Second, differences in shareholder-oriented common law regimes have the same causes as in creditor-oriented code law regimes, i.e., an increase in Operating Income, Net Income, Current Liabilities and Invested Capital, as well as a decrease in Shareholder Equity.