Where have all the flowers gone? Forecasting green trends in the automobile industry with a choice-based conjoint adoption model

With rising gas prices, global warming, and green thinking, all-electric vehicles are currently considered the automobile technology of the future. However, besides their advantages electric drive trains also exhibit several disadvantages. Moreover, history shows several failed attempts to establish electric vehicles. Thus, a reliable forecasting model is needed that predicts if the current trend is sustainable. We develop and empirically test a choice-based conjoint adoption model that uses individual-level preferences as a basis for prediction. Predictions are mapped to the time of the next planned purchase in order to establish the adoption process. The model extends existing research in several ways. First, no prior information, e.g., historical market data or a functional form of the adoption process, has to be integrated. Second, the model allows dynamic modifications of product specifications or competition at different points in time. Third, a no-choice option can be integrated so that a technology switch is not forced by the model itself and switching costs can be considered. The empirical results reveal different critical factors for the adoption of all-electric vehicles, such as purchase price, range, timing of the market entry, or environmental evolution, which could lead to a solid base of consumers preferring this option.     

The interaction effect of strategic orientations on new product performance in the high-tech industry: A nonlinear model

Innovation and market orientation are two strategic orientations or business philosophies that can guide a company in its business activities. Although the interaction effect of these two strategic orientations is conceptually recognized as a critical factor for new product's success, empirical results are mixed. This paper examines this issue in terms of innovation orientation, two types of market orientations (responsive and proactive), and new product performance. Based on a sample of 107 high-tech firms, the results of this study show that the interaction between innovation orientation and two types of market orientation yields different patterns of nonlinear responses for new product performance. Specifically, new product performance, when derived from the interaction between innovation orientation and responsive market orientation, is in the form of an inverted U, i.e., the interaction effect is contributory to firm performance until an optimal level is reached, and then the effect becomes detrimental thereafter. However, new product performance derived from innovation orientation and proactive market orientation is in the form of a U, i.e., the interaction effect is detrimental to firm performance until a threshold level is reached and then the effect becomes contributory thereafter. The different patterns of new product performance indicate that the costs and organizational learning effects of these two strategic orientation interactions are dissimilar. The paper concludes with a discussion of theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

货币冲击与中国经济波动——基于DSGE模型的数量分析

基于1993~2008年的季度数据,本文在一个包含Calvo价格粘性的新凯恩斯主义模型中,讨论了中国货币冲击与经济增长的关系。在假定货币政策通过调整货币供给增长实施的前提下,本文根据模型模拟和实际数据的对比以及脉冲响应函数分析得出以下结论:(1)货币并非我国经济波动根源,实际产出对货币供给具有一定反馈作用。(2)通货膨胀的顺周期性和领先增长表明中国经济周期存在总需求拉动的特性。物价波动在中短期主要由货币供应量波动引起。(3)货币政策对实体经济有效但效果有限,货币供给变动对投资的作用效力更大,对消费需求刺激有限。     

产业转移的新经济地理学解释

不同于传统的产业转移理论,新经济地理学在规模报酬和垄断竞争框架下解释了产业转移现象,认为产业转移的基础不必然是第一自然的差异,在完全相同的均质空间下,由于市场接近效应、生活成本效应和市场拥挤效应所构成的集聚力和扩散力的相互作用,产业转移也会发生,并且表现出突发性、自我强化、预期自我实现和价值链环节分离的特性及关联度弱的产业先转移等规律。此外,新经济地理学还运用一般均衡分析方法考察了产业转移的福利效应,包括瓦尔拉斯效应、生产租金和规模区位效应、累积效应以及转移效应,并对影响产业转移的税收优惠竞争、公共基础设施改善和区域补贴等政策措施的效果进行了剖析。     

Signaling quality with new product preannouncements: Vaporware and the role of reference quality

This research develops a signaling game that captures the essential dynamics of new product preannouncements (preannouncement/launch/market feedback). New product preannouncements are preannouncing firms' formal efforts to inform their competitors and customers about the future availability, superior quality and introductory price of their upcoming new products. In a market, two firms compete (entrant preannounces and incumbent responds) across two periods. The entrant has private information about the true quality of a new product (the incumbent and customers do not know it), and this informational asymmetry provides the entrant with a preannouncement dilemma. Should the entrant preannounce and, if the entrant does, should the entrant tell the truth about quality? Preannouncements often get customers who might buy now from a competitor to wait for a higher quality to be available. Therefore, the entrant may have an incentive to bluff the quality of a new product in order to enhance the likelihood of customers' waiting. However, because the quality exaggeration is also likely to increase customers' quality expectations, the entrant may suffer a significant sales penalty if the entrant does not deliver the promised quality. Through the signaling game, this paper derives conditions under which such a bluff does/does not put the preannouncing firm at risk (i.e., this paper derives the separating/pooling equilibria that are the focus of signaling games).     

Why the Generalized Bass Model leads to odd optimal advertising policies

We show that the optimal advertising strategy under the Generalized Bass Model (GBM) involves beginning at an extremely low level (the lower the better) and then increasing spending throughout the planning period. This strategy remains optimal in the presence of decreasing prices that affect both margins and diffusion speed. We provide a simple explanation for why this happens. We further show that the intuitively appealing patterns of continuous decrease or increase-then-decrease (both with an uptick towards the end) identified in earlier research are also possible as optimal dynamic advertising paths under the GBM structure, but only if the advertising at launch is constrained to be higher than a particular threshold, which we identify. The constraint necessary to generate intuitively appealing strategies lowers overall profits. Therefore, the GBM generates advertising policy recommendations that most marketers would deem odd. This casts doubt on the value of the GBM for normative purposes. Other existing diffusion models are preferred when seeking normative guidance on optimal dynamic advertising policies for new products subject to word of mouth.     

基于新公共服务理论的广西邮政改革的对策研究

邮政业作为公共企业,是公共部门的重要组成部分,以新公共服务理论作为理论基础来研究广西邮政的改革问题具有深刻的内在必然性。本文对如何深化邮政政策进行较为全面的研究和探索。     

贵州学前教育公共政策现实问题分析

重要领域公共政策的有效推进对国家和社会的发展具有重要的作用,学前教育公共政策作为政府实行学前教育目标和任务的行动依据和准则,保障学前教育事业的健康发展,并直接影响社会的发展进步。     

中国智能电网战略选择与上海的发展机遇

近两年来全球掀起了建设智能电网的浪潮,本文分析了美欧的智能电网发展战略,通过比较美欧与中国实际情况存在的异同,得出了我国智能电网建设战略重点主要有新能源的接入与使用、输电网建设及工业用户端用户侧智能。此外,本文还分析了在智能电网的建设过程中,上海城市经济发展与产业经济发展的重大机遇,指出了企业和政府应制定相应的战略和政策来抓住该机遇。     

广东发展战略性新兴产业的政策选择

目前,我国明确提出要大力发展战略性新兴产业,各地各部门也在加紧制定相关战略性新兴产业发展规划和政策措施.从目前广东战略性新兴产业政策的制定情况来看,还仅有少量的方向性政策,缺乏整体的发展规划和完整的扶持政策体系.本文将以新兴产业发展规律和强调可操作性等原则出发,提出了广东发展战略性新兴产韭的几大政策设计.