印度森林资源管理与消除贫困考察报告

对印度森林资源管理、林产品贸易及加工、联合森林经营和消除贫困等情况进行了考察。联合森林经营是印度最重要的社会林业形式,对于恢复退化林地、增加当地居民收入、消除贫困、保障林产品需求等有较大贡献;印度政府将反贫困作为重要目标之一,制定有不同阶段的具体措施,并积极依靠民间科技力量扶贫,成效显著。印度森林资源管理及消除贫困的经验值得我国借鉴。     

建设用地扩张与碳排放增长的EKC验证及特征分解研究——以武汉市为例

研究目的:量化碳排放增长与建设用地扩张的关系特征,对建设用地碳排放驱动因素进行分解。研究方法:EKC假说、KAYA恒等式、LMDI分解。研究结果:(1)建设用地总量与工业用地的碳排放EKC关系为倒U型,公共商服与交通用地为N型,居住用地则为U型;(2)地均GDP产出和产业用地规模对产业碳排放增长具有正向作用,而单位GDP产业能耗对产业排放增长具有负向效应,其他因素影响较弱;(3)人均GDP和居住用地规模对生活碳排放具有正向效应,而单位GDP生活能耗、单位能耗排放和居住人口密度具有负向效应;(4)交通出行结构、地均出行人口数和交通用地规模对交通碳排放具有正向效应,单位能耗排放和人均能耗强度对交通碳排放具有负向效应。研究结论:各类建设用地扩张均未达到碳排放增长拐点,工业用地扩张的碳排放边际速率降低使得武汉市碳排放增长趋缓,但居住、公共商服和交通碳排放在城市扩张中具备更快的增长趋势,是控制土地利用碳排放的重点;承载功能差异使得驱动建设用地碳排放增长的因素各异,需结合两者增长的耦合关系和不同因素碳效应探讨建设用地低碳利用途径。     

Cross-Classification Analysis Using Prediction Logic Versus Theory-Testing Logic: Comments on the Use of the DEL-Technique

Without acknowledging the paradigm difference between testing theory and predicting events, researchers in the field of management and organization continue to use the DEL-technique as a promising technique to evaluate theory based on cross-classification data analysis. We address the purpose and interpretation of the DEL-measure within the theory-testing and events-predicting paradigm. We argue that DEL, a proportionate reduction in error measure, is not to be interpreted in terms of the proportionate error reduction of knowing a prediction rule over not knowing it. In addition, a significant DEL-value is not to be interpreted as a dependence-measure of acceptance of a hypothesis as the only and best relationship between two categorical variables, just as a non-significant DEL-value cannot be interpreted as a measure of independence. Furthermore, an alternative proportionate reduction in error measure generates unequivocally interpretable results compared to the DEL-technique. Ton Steerneman passed away on September, 28, 2005.     

Noise trading and autocorrelation interactions in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from developed and emerging economies

This paper seeks to empirically determine whether feedback trading strategies result in stabilization or destabilization in the foreign exchange market and if such strategies are a distinctive characteristic of an emerging economy or they are a common element to both developed and emerging economies. These hypotheses are tested via the use of a feedback model augmented with a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process for modeling the errors. The results suggest presence of both positive and negative feedback trading and asymmetric behavior in both types of economies. Irrespective of the nature of feedback trading, presence of asymmetric behavior implies that market traders rely on central banks to intervene so they can realize short-term profits. Finally, in cases of a positive first-order autoregressive parameter presence of the bandwagon effect is implied, whereby past currency movements are followed by expectations of currency movements in the same direction.

Endogenous technical progress induced by CO2 reduction policies: Simulation results for Austria

Almost all model simulations of CO₂ reduction policies focus on the effects of changes in the relative price of energy compared to the other factors of production caused by various energy taxation schemes. Typical results of these simulations as reported e.g. from the GREEN model of OECD show depressing effects on real GDP and upward pressures on inflation.We propose the hypothesis that these results may be biased due to an inadequate treatment of technical progress and proceed as follows: Firstly, instead of treating technical progress as exogenous we explicitly model theprice induced change of the composition of capital stock of households and producers with its effects on energy efficiency and investment demand. Secondly, we investigate to what extent adouble dividend policy which boosts CO₂ reduction technologies by special programs funded by the additional tax revenues differs from the mere price induced technological changes.We implement these propositions within the framework of a macroeconometric model for Austria which emphasizes substitution between energy and capital in providing energy services for households and producers. The following results are obtained: Firstly, we indicate how misleading the GDP effects may be if they result from lower energy intensities but still maintain the required energy services. Secondly, we investigate the effects of various energy taxation policies under different compensation schemes. Instead of merely relying on price-induced technological change we strongly advocate compensation programs which provide additional incentives for implementing high efficiency energy technologies such as cogeneration equipment or buildings with improved thermal standards.     

The Complete Welfare Effects of Cost Reductions in a Cournot Oligopoly

This paper provides the smallest upper bound or the critical level for a Cournot firm's market share below which its cost reduction reduces welfare. It shows that a firm's cost reduction increases social welfare with nonlinear demand and nonlinear costs if and only if its market share is above the critical level, which is equal to a weighted sum of the other firms' market shares. The paper also reports similar results for technological spill-overs within any given set of firms.     

珠江三角洲城镇生活污水削减目标的探讨

城镇生活污水是珠江三角洲地区最主要的水环境负荷之一,通过节水措施削减城镇生活污水排放量是珠江三角洲构建健康社会水循环的重要战略。本文基于生活用水量和废水排放量在2010年增幅削减一半以及在2020年实现零增长的战略目标,运用广东省环境统计数据和珠江流域水资源综合规划的调查数据,探讨了2010年和2020年珠江三角洲生活水环境负荷削减目标的定量方案。研究结论对于科学制定目标导向型的珠江三角洲水环境总体规划有着重要意义。     

珠江三角洲城市生活节水减污战略研究

人口的急剧集聚以及生活水平的快速提高，导致珠江三角洲地区的城市生活用水量非常大。城市生活节水对于降低珠江三角洲地区的水资源开发压力和水环境负荷有着特别的意义。该文探讨了珠江三角洲城市生活节水减污的战略目标、重点城市、重点用水部门以及主要战略措施。     

上市公司计提资产减值准备对其配股融资影响的实证研究

就上市公司计提资产减值准备对其配股融资行为的影响进行了实证研究.实证结果显示,为保其配股资格,上市公司不同程度地利用了资产减值准备政策进行了盈余操纵.最后,对此提出了自己的建议和对策.     

贸易自由化与中国国内工业行业的生产利润

本文在一个中间投入品生产决策模型基础上,利用2003-2010年中国37个工业行业的面板数据以及中国的进口关税数据表,研究了中国贸易自由化过程中的关税减让政策对国内工业行业利润水平的影响。研究结论表明：关税减让政策对国内工业行业利润水平的影响是多方面的。进口关税的削减导致竞争加剧,会降低行业的利润水平,而受到关税保护的行业有可能获得更高的利润;与此同时,进口关税削减导致中间品关税的降低,降低了行业的生产成本从而增加了行业的盈利能力,但是,这种成本降低效应仅对大中型企业样本显著,而规模以上企业样本并不显著。本文的结果也意味着,关税对国内工业仍然起到了一定的保护作用,不同类型的企业在关税减让过程中获得的效应可能是不同的,在进行关税减让谈判时应该充分考虑到这一点。