Competitive selection, self-organisation and Joseph A. Schumpeter

Post-Schumpeterians have tended to use biological analogies to understand economic evolution, in contrast to Schumpeter himself. In this paper it is argued that the biological analogies used tend to be outdated and that Schumpeter espoused an intuitive understanding of the evolutionary economic process that is closely related to modern conceptions of self-organisation, suitably adapted for application in socioeconomic systems. Using a self-organisation approach, competition can be understood without recourse to biological analogy, in terms of general systemic principles that operate in the presence of variety. Viewing economic evolution in terms of complex adaptation in self-organising systems yields nonequilibrium and nonlinear perspectives that parallel Schumpeter's own intuitions, reinvigorating them as the basis of evolutionary economic thinking in the new Millennium.     

Estimating the long-run effects of socioeconomic and meteorological factors on the domestic tourism demand for Galicia (Spain)

Tourism is one of the more important sectors for the economy of Galicia (northwest of Spain). The aim of our study is to quantify determinants of Galician domestic tourism demand and their impacts. Additionally, confidence intervals for these impacts are calculated by bootstrapping data. The results show that income, Eastern vacations and the celebration of the Holy Year of the Apostle Saint James have had a relevant positive impact on tourism. There is also a significant positive connection between a meteorological phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and tourism demand. On the other hand, the differential rates of inflation between Galicia and the rest of Spain and the 2008 economic crisis have had a negative effect.     

我国黄金期货市场价格发现与套期保值功能——基于ARDL-ECM模型

文章收集了2011-2013年的黄金期货和现货价格数据,采用ARDL-ECM模型分析我国黄金期货价格和现货价格之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究表明:我国黄金期货市场具有完美且有效的套期保值功能,但尚不具有价格发现功能,其运行效率有待提高。     

International Linkages among Stock Markets of Malaysia and Its Major Trading Partners

This study empirically examines the short- and long-run dynamic causal linkages between Malaysia and its major trading partners (the United States, Japan, Singapore, China, and Thailand) based on a two-step estimation, Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) during the period 1992–2008. The study documents that the stronger the trade ties among the countries, the higher the degree of comovements among their stock markets. The Japanese stock market, to some extent, is found to be more important than the United States over these markets. In designing stock market policies, each country should take into consideration of any shocks in its major trading partners.     

Nonlinear models with panel data

Panel data play an important role in empirical economics. With panel data one can answer questions about microeconomic dynamic behavior that could not be answered with cross sectional data. Panel data techniques are also useful for analyzing cross sectional data with grouping. This paper discusses some issues related to specification and estimation of nonlinear models using panel data.JEL Classification: C230The research behind this paper was supported by the National Science Foundation, the Gregory C. Chow Econometric Research Program at Princeton University, and Danish National Research Foundation (through CAM at the University of Copenhagen). The author thanks Ekaterini Kyriazidou, Hong Li, Marina Sallustro, and the editors for helpful suggestions.     

A uniform weak law of large numbers under π-mixing with application to nonlinear least squares estimation

Abstract  In B ierens (1981) we have derived a uniform weak law of large numbers for stochastically stable processes with respect to a finite-dependent base. In this paper we show that this uniform weak law carries over to stochastically stable processes with respect to a, more general, φ-mixing base. This generalization will be used for relaxing the conditions for weak consistency and asymptotic normality of nonlinear least squares estimators.     

A sneeze in the U.S., a cough in Japan,but pneumonia in Taiwan? An application of the Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model

This paper examines the lead–lag relationships among the output of Taiwan, Japan and the U.S. Three testing methods are employed: the traditional linear Granger causality test, Hiemstra and Jones' [Hiemstra, C., Jones, J.D., 1994. Testing for linear and nonlinear Granger causality in the stock price-volume relation. Journal of Finance 49, 1639–1664] nonlinear Granger causality test and Warne's [Warne, A., 2000. Causality and regime inference in a Markov-S switching VAR, Working Paper no. 118, Sveriges Riksbank, Stockholm.] Granger causality test under the Markov-Switching model. We find that the causal ordering is unclear and depends on the model we used. Because Markov-Switching model imposes few restrictions in estimation, we tend to use its estimated results but bear in mind that the evidence is sensitive. First, the common shock hypothesis is found that most probably exists between Taiwan and the U.S. Next, we conclude that Japan tends to lead Taiwan's output, to a certain extent. Last, there is no causal ordering between the U.S. and Japan economies.     

解非线性电路稳态响应的一种有效算法

本文提供一种计算非线性电路的稳态响应的有效算法,在多频信号激励的强迫振荡电路和耦合振荡电路都可使用。该方法可称为“代换算法”。因为,它每一步的变量都是用残留误差的各个频率分量解关联时不变电路,该电路是用“松弛法”将时变电路转换而来。此算法非常简单而有效,并且可应用于各种非线性电路。     

DETERMINANTS OF INFLATION IN GHANA: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the factors accounting for inflation dynamics in Ghana using the bounds test and other econometric approaches. We find that real output, nominal exchange rate, broad money supply, nominal interest rate and fiscal deficit play a dominant role in the inflationary process in Ghana. To the extent that output growth by far has the strongest impact on inflation, targeting supply‐side constraints will help moderate price inflation. The paper concludes that inflation in Ghana is explained by a combination of structural and monetary factors consistent with prior studies.