价值工程在建筑工程施工招标评标中的应用

本文介绍了评标中常用的几种分析评价方法 ,重点分析了价值工程在建筑业中的使用现状和不足 ,引进了评价指标的非线性标准化函数 ,建立了非线性价值工程评价模型。     

Risk aversion and the dynamics of optimal liquidation strategies in illiquid markets

We consider the infinite-horizon optimal portfolio liquidation problem for a von Neumann–Morgenstern investor in the liquidity model of Almgren (Appl. Math. Finance 10:1–18, 2003). Using a stochastic control approach, we characterize the value function and the optimal strategy as classical solutions of nonlinear parabolic partial differential equations. We furthermore analyze the sensitivities of the value function and the optimal strategy with respect to the various model parameters. In particular, we find that the optimal strategy is aggressive or passive in-the-money, respectively, if and only if the utility function displays increasing or decreasing risk aversion. Surprisingly, only few further monotonicity relations exist with respect to the other parameters. We point out in particular that the speed by which the remaining asset position is sold can be decreasing in the size of the position but increasing in the liquidity price impact.      

非线性时序模型LM检验的两类临界值检验统计功效比较

本文基于模拟方法比较了不同非线性时序模型的LM检验的功效和规模,同时也考虑一般化线性检验BDS检验参与比较,目的在于探讨蒙特一卡洛渐近法检验与自举法（bootstrap）检验的两类临界值的统计功效何者更为有效。通过实证与对比分析,结果表明,当样本小于200或自回归系数接近单位根,或者线性性检验是ARCHT或BDS时,就可以考虑应用自举法临界值而非渐近临界值。而且还发现,BDS检验仅在一般性上优于LM检验。     

Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex-ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific noise covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.     

Can tourism be a key sector in reducing income inequality? An empirical investigation for Turkey

The aim of the study is to investigate the nexus between tourism and income inequality by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) test cover the period 1974–2015 in Turkey. Findings indicated that the variables are cointegrated and an increase in tourism has a positive effect on income inequality, while economic growth and trade openness have a negative effect both in the long-run and short-run. Results also denote that tourism will decrease income inequality with the expansion of tourism activities and the spread of tourism throughout society. In other words, the tourism-related Kuznets Curve hypothesis is valid for Turkey.     

Purchasing Power Parity and the European single currency: Some new evidence

The effect of the single currency on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis is examined in this study for the 15 EU countries, vis a vis the US dollar, before and after the advent of the euro. Standard as well as nonlinear unit root tests are employed on the time series dimension. Unit root tests reject PPP and the highest half-lives are observed after the introduction of the single currency. Panel unit root (Pesaran, 2007) and stationarity tests (Hadri and Kurozumi, 2008) that take into account cross-sectional dependence are also estimated. The results remain inconclusive as panel stationarity tests fail to support PPP whereas panel unit root tests fail to reject PPP for the whole sample and for the period before the introduction of the single currency.     

通货膨胀率周期波动与非线性动态调整

本文运用MRSTAR模型研究我国通货膨胀率的周期阶段划分、通胀率周期波动的非线性和非对称性动态特征,通胀率不同阶段相互转移的路径及其内在机理。实证研究表明,我国通货膨胀率波动可以划分为通货紧缩、通缩恢复、温和通胀以及严重通胀四个阶段,通胀率波动不同阶段的划分不仅依赖于通胀率的水平,也依赖于通胀率的增加量;在一个波动周期内,通胀率不同阶段的典型转移路径为:通货紧缩→温和通胀→严重通胀→温和通胀→通货紧缩;我国通货紧缩与温和通胀持续时间较长,而严重通胀持续时间很短;冲击对通胀率系统不具有持久性影响,正向冲击与负向冲击的影响具有非对称特征。     

Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?

This study investigates the relationship between foreign capital inflows and energy consumption by incorporating economic growth, exports and currency devaluation in energy demand function for the case of Pakistan. The long-run and short-run effects are examined via ARDL bounds testing procedure. Foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation (economic growth and exports) decrease (increase) energy consumption in long-run. The results confirm a feedback effect between foreign capital inflows and energy consumption. These findings would be helpful to policy makers in designing comprehensive economic and energy policies for utilizing foreign capital inflows as a tool for optimal use of energy sources to enhance economic development in long run.     

技术进步对中国就业影响的实证研究

选取1978—2008年中国30个省市的面板数据,运用DEA方法测算中国的全要素生产率及其分解项:技术变化与技术效率,并使用ARDL模型实证分析技术效率和技术变化对就业的影响。研究发现:技术效率无论是长期还是短期都对就业具有显著的抑制效应,但在短期中,技术变化当期对就业没有显著影响;而滞后期技术变化的改善也会对就业人数的增加产生抑制效应,同时,在长期中,技术变化对就业有着显著的促进效应,可以带动就业量的增加。     

我国黄金期货市场价格发现与套期保值功能——基于ARDL-ECM模型

文章收集了2011-2013年的黄金期货和现货价格数据,采用ARDL-ECM模型分析我国黄金期货价格和现货价格之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究表明:我国黄金期货市场具有完美且有效的套期保值功能,但尚不具有价格发现功能,其运行效率有待提高。