The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998–2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.     

Modeling heterogeneous effective advertising stock using single-source data

This paper presents a nonlinear modeling of market response between advertising stock and direct utility with heterogeneous parameters using single-source data. We examine advertising threshold effects and measure the effective advertising stock at the individual consumer level. Two kinds of information, i.e., TV advertising exposure data and consumer’s purchase history data, are combined for the modeling. The former is used for constructing advertising stock over calendar time via heterogeneous carryover parameters and the latter is applied to the choice model. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is applied to estimate these heterogeneous parameters. Compared to other possible nonlinear specifications, it is shown that the proposed threshold utility function model with discontinuity at the threshold performs better than other smooth market response models. The empirical results support the existence of an advertising threshold and suggest the pulsing or “on/off” policy for our datasets. In terms of the effective reach, implying the reach after suspending the ad exposure to investigate how it is damping out for a possible “on/off” advertising policy, the optimal “off” interval was measured to be quite short to support a high-frequency pulsing policy, because the carryover parameter as well as the difference of ad stock and threshold are not large enough for our datasets.      

Keynes and Wagner on government expenditures and economic development: the case of a developing economy

This paper investigates the Keynesian view and the Wagner’s Law on the role of public expenditure on economic growth for Malaysia (1970–2004). The empirical results using the Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the ‘bounds test’ (Pesaran et al. in J Appl Econ 16:289–326, 2001) showed evidence of a long run relationship between total expenditures (including expenditures on defense, education, development and agriculture) and Gross National Product. The results also show that with the structural break in 1998, the long run causality is bi-directional for GNP and expenditures on administration and health, supporting both Keynes view and Wagner’s Law. For all other expenditure categories the long run causality runs from GNP to the expenditures, which supports Wagner’s Law. An erratum to this article can be found at     

价值工程在建筑工程施工招标评标中的应用

本文介绍了评标中常用的几种分析评价方法 ,重点分析了价值工程在建筑业中的使用现状和不足 ,引进了评价指标的非线性标准化函数 ,建立了非线性价值工程评价模型。     

公共投资就业效应的一个解释——基于CES生产函数的分析及其检验

本文在分析CES生产函数过程中引入劳动力市场,探讨了公共投资与就业的联系.本文认为,公共投资是通过劳动工资弹性来影响就业的.公共投资增加会引起劳动需求的工资弹性提高,而公共投资的溢出效应则会导致企业实际工资支出水平降低,两方面原因的共同作用引起就业的增长.在此分析基础上,本文用ARDL方法构建了一个多方程模型,并用中国的数据进行了检验.为提高分析的有效性,我们用SUR方法对模型做了系统估计,并进一步通过方程转化对变量的短期波动和长期均衡关系进行了探讨.实证研究发现,中国的公共投资增长在短期减少就业,但长期内对就业有显著的正效应.     

非线性时序模型LM检验的两类临界值检验统计功效比较

本文基于模拟方法比较了不同非线性时序模型的LM检验的功效和规模,同时也考虑一般化线性检验BDS检验参与比较,目的在于探讨蒙特一卡洛渐近法检验与自举法（bootstrap）检验的两类临界值的统计功效何者更为有效。通过实证与对比分析,结果表明,当样本小于200或自回归系数接近单位根,或者线性性检验是ARCHT或BDS时,就可以考虑应用自举法临界值而非渐近临界值。而且还发现,BDS检验仅在一般性上优于LM检验。     

Effects of monetary policy on the REIT returns: Evidence from the United Kingdom

In this paper, we analyze whether a monetary policy based on three main variables (inflation, money supply, and output gap) has a nonlinear impact on real estate investment trust (REIT) markets. In addition, we extend our analysis to examine whether these monetary policy components impact the possibility of boom and bust regimes occurring in the market. Empirically, we propose different Markov-switching model variants to determine the nonlinear time-varying impact of monetary policy on the REIT market. Our results show the monetary policy environment is supposed to affect, on one hand, the REIT returns and, on the other hand, the possibility of boom and bust markets. We prove that expansionary monetary policy has an impact only in the case of boom market. However, an increase in the inflation rate decreases the probability of remaining in the bust regime. As a consequence, we have already outlined several monetary transmission mechanisms that show house prices to have important effects on aggregate demand. Our results confirm that REIT markets are not efficient.     

Convergence analysis and optimal strike choice for static hedges of general path-independent pay-offs

In this paper, we propose a new algorithm to find the optimal static replicating portfolios for general path-independent nonlinear pay-off functions and give an estimate for the rate of convergence that is absent in the literature. We choose the static replication by designing an adaptation function arising in the error bound between the nonlinear pay-off function and the linear spline approximation and derive the equidistribution equation for selecting the optimal strikes. The numerical tests for variance swaps, swaptions, static quadratic hedges and also for a jump-diffusion process, allowing for the default of the underlying asset, show that the proposed iterative equidistribution equation algorithm is simple, fast and accurate. The paper generalizes and improves the results on static replication and approximation in the literature.     

Who poisons the pool? Time-varying asymmetric and nonlinear causal inference between low-risk and high-risk bonds markets

Corporate bond markets enable the efficient allocation of capital among competing firms, as well as an extensive degree of disintermediation. While the role of the junk bond market in financing leveraged buyouts, “fallen angels,” start-ups, small firms, and sovereign governments is known, little is known about interactions between low-risk (AAA) bonds markets and high-risk (CCC and below) bonds markets. In this study, we used a sample of daily data spanning 20 years to investigate the dynamic link in first and second moments between low-risk and high-risk bonds during calm and turbulent periods in the U.S. financial markets. Using asymmetric and nonlinear causality tests, as well as the extended DCC-GJR-GARCH model, we found evidence of an asymmetric and nonlinear unidirectional causal link from high-risk to low-risk bonds markets, which intensifies during bear markets. There is a bidirectional volatility and shock transmission only during normal bond market conditions. The high-risk bonds market induces more destabilizing effects in the corporate bond market than the low-risk bonds market. The time-varying, highly persistent, and negative correlation during normal market conditions provides the opportunity for combining low-risk and high-risk bonds to diversify a portfolio.     

Does Outbound Foreign Direct Investment Crowd Out Domestic Investment in China? Evidence from Time Series Analysis

China’s rising outbound foreign direct investment (ODI) has raised concerns as to whether it substitutes or complements domestic investment (DI). We demonstrated specification weaknesses in the previous studies and present fresh evidence on ODI–DI nexus for China. Utilizing ARDL approach for time series macroeconomic data, the study detects long-run negative one-way causality running from ODI to DI. The results provide robust evidence supporting the view that Chinese outbound foreign direct investment crowds out DI in the long run.