Forward and spot exchange rates in a bivariate TAR framework

Structural exchange rate models explain only a small part of the movements in dollar exchange rate. Recent empirical work has focused on the failure to account for nonlinearities in the data generating mechanism, as an explanation of this bad performance. Here two bivariate threshold autoregressive models for the spot and forward exchange rates are considered. In the first model the regimes are determined by the log difference of the two rates; in the second one the regimes are driven by the forward spot no-arbitrage condition. These processes are able to capture the ‘swing’ behaviour observed in the exchange rate market. Finally the forecasting ability of the models for the dollar/DM exchange rate is evaluated by stochastic simulation.     

马来西亚华人经济的发展与影响

华人经济与马来西亚社会发展,有着非常密切的联系。本文分析了马来西亚华人经济政策的内涵、华人经济发展及其在族群经济中的地位,以及马来西亚华人对本身经济处境的自我评估等问题,认为目前马来西亚华人经济发展状况,有利于改善马来西亚族群关系,促进马来西亚社会的稳定与和谐。     

关于“反馈”的一个注记

本文提出一种同时采用正反馈和负反馈以提高音频放大器性能的新方法。文中给出了非线性失真减少因子的计算公式并田此导出了最优化条件。     

出口退税政策对我国外贸增长方式转变的影响效应及建议

本文分析了出口退税政策对我国外贸增长方式转变的影响效应，并在此基础上提出利用出口退税政策促进我国外贸增长方式根本转变的几点建议。     

中国投资率波动的度量与变化的分解(1993～2008年)

本文从产业角度对中国投资率的波动和变化进行了度量和分解,结果表明,1993~2008年产业内效应解释了中国投资率波动的84.70%,而2000~2008年中国投资率持续上升期间,它的解释力上升到94.87%。除持续上升的2001年和2002年外,产业内效应中第二产业投资率的上升都主导着中国投资率的持续上升。中国投资率9年后才持续上升的根本原因是第二产业的投资率由降转升而致。     

Multivariate contemporaneous-threshold autoregressive models

This paper proposes a contemporaneous-threshold multivariate smooth transition autoregressive (C-MSTAR) model in which the regime weights depend on the ex-ante probabilities that latent regime-specific variables exceed certain threshold values. A key feature of the model is that the transition function depends on all the parameters of the model as well as on the data. Since the mixing weights are also a function of the regime-specific noise covariance matrix, the model can account for contemporaneous regime-specific co-movements of the variables. The stability and distributional properties of the proposed model are discussed, as well as issues of estimation, testing and forecasting. The practical usefulness of the C-MSTAR model is illustrated by examining the relationship between US stock prices and interest rates.     

Moment-based estimation of smooth transition regression models with endogenous variables

Nonlinear regression models have been widely used in practice for a variety of time series and cross-section datasets. For purposes of analyzing univariate and multivariate time series data, in particular, smooth transition regression (STR) models have been shown to be very useful for representing and capturing asymmetric behavior. Most STR models have been applied to univariate processes, and have made a variety of assumptions, including stationary or cointegrated processes, uncorrelated, homoskedastic or conditionally heteroskedastic errors, and weakly exogenous regressors. Under the assumption of exogeneity, the standard method of estimation is nonlinear least squares. The primary purpose of this paper is to relax the assumption of weakly exogenous regressors and to discuss moment-based methods for estimating STR models. The paper analyzes the properties of the STR model with endogenous variables by providing a diagnostic test of linearity of the underlying process under endogeneity, developing an estimation procedure and a misspecification test for the STR model, presenting the results of Monte Carlo simulations to show the usefulness of the model and estimation method, and providing an empirical application for inflation rate targeting in Brazil. We show that STR models with endogenous variables can be specified and estimated by a straightforward application of existing results in the literature.     

Modeling and optimizing the integrated problem of closed-loop supply chain network design and disassembly line balancing

This paper describes an integrated model that jointly optimizes the strategic and tactical decisions of a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC). The strategic level decisions relate to the amounts of goods flowing on the forward and reverse chains. The tactical level decisions concern balancing disassembly lines in the reverse chain. The objective is to minimize costs of transportation, purchasing, refurbishing, and operating the disassembly workstations. A nonlinear mixed integer programming formulation is described for the problem. Numerical examples are presented using the proposed model.     

On the Hoggard–Whalley–Wilmott Equation for the Pricing of Options with Transaction Costs

The Hoggard–Whalley–Wilmott equation is introduced to model portfolios of European type options incorporating transaction costs. The model gives rise to a nonlinear parabolic partial differential equation (PDE), whose nonlinearity reflects the presence of transaction costs. We show analytically the existence of solutions which are not necessarily convex nor concave. Numerical treatments are also given, which are devised to effectively handle an infinite domain and unbounded solutions.      

非线性网络的故障诊断

本文讨论了将K故障证实法推广于具有不可及节点的非线性网络的多故障诊断问题。提出了一种新的故障检验和分析方法,通过诊断实例,说明了本方法的可行性。