新型农业经营主体发展的福利效应研究

本文从收入和就业两个视角出发,基于微观调查数据,实证新型农业经营主体发展的福利效应。结果发现新型农业经营主体发展的收入效应和就业效应是显著的,即便是在控制了新型农业经营主体发展的内生性之后,新型农业经营主体发展的收入效应和就业效应仍然进一步加强。西部民族地区和非民族地区新型农业经营主体发展的福利效应是存在差异的,非民族地区新型农业经营主体发展的收入效应和就业效应要明显好于民族地区。同时,还发现性别、婚姻状况、文化程度、基础设施状况等对新型农业经营主体发展的福利效应的影响不显著,年龄、户籍状况、健康状况、家庭氛围、家中人口供养比、家庭社会资本、物流体系、金融服务、产业结构、电商平台发展以及农业技术培训等对新型农业经营主体发展的福利效应产生显著正向影响,而农业机械化发展状况和农村治安状况在收入视角和就业视角下对新型农业经营主体发展的福利效应产生截然相反的影响。     

科技政策组合的技术创新协同效应研究 ——供给侧—需求侧视角

利用2013-2016年中关村园区企业数据,将创新划分为创新倾向、技术绩效和经济绩效,以政策供给侧的政府补贴、税收优惠及需求侧的政府采购为研究对象,基于倾向得分匹配方法分析供需两侧科技政策组合的技术创新协同效应。结果表明：政策支持对技术创新存在激励效应,供给侧政策对创新倾向的激励效应最强,而需求侧政策对创新绩效的激励效应更显著;不同的科技政策组合形式均对技术创新具有激励作用,并且科技政策组合对技术创新存在协同效应。     

Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates

The distribution of shocks to GDP growth rates is found to be exponential rather than normal. Their standard deviation scales with GDP^β where β=−0.15±0.03. These macroeconomic results place restrictions on the microeconomic structure of interactions between agents.     

Optimal selling mechanisms for multiproduct monopolists: incentive compatibility in the presence of budget constraints

We analyze the nonlinear pricing problem faced by an incomplete information monopolist operating in a market populated by agents with budget constraints. We show that if other goods are available and if the monopolist's goods are nonessential relative to other goods, then there exists an optimal, individually rational, and incentive compatible selling mechanism for the monopolist (Theorem 1). Moreover, we show that a solution to all such nonlinear pricing problems exists if and only if the monopolist's goods are nonessential (Theorem 2). In the absence of nonessentiality, we show that if the monopolist's profit function is independent of quantity (e.g., if all costs are fixed), then an optimal selling mechanism exists (Theorem 3). Finally, we show that if there is reporting (of types by agents) and partial recognition of types (by the monopolist), then an optimal selling mechanism exists, even in the absence of nonessentiality, provided agents' utility functions are affine and continuous in goods (Theorem 4).     

Service value chains and effects of scale

This paper generalizes Porter’s notion of the value chain for the analysis of service industries. The generalization entails that the flow and the physical transformation and assembly of goods that are characteristic of manufacturing are generalized into flows and transformation of data and flows and transformation of the physical and mental condition of people that are characteristic of many service industries. Utility is generalized from the utilities of forms and function of goods, characteristic of manufacturing, to the utilities of time, place, convenience, speed, safety, entertainment, physical and mental well-being, knowledge and mental capacity, funding and assurance. The analysis yields a categorization of industries according to central features of the value adding process. Here, the analysis is used to identify sources of (in)efficiency of scale, scope and experience, along the value chain.

外资进入和我国企业的生产率：“溢出”抑或“挤出”效应

我国改革和开放是同时推进的,引进了众多外资企业来推动我国经济发展。那么,外资企业的进入是否有助于我国内资企业的成长？本文分析我国工业企业超大样本数据,探讨外资进入的影响,研究我国内资企业的生产率能否向效率前沿收敛。结果发现,我国不同类型的内资企业均存在效率前沿的收敛趋势,内外资企业生产率差距不断缩小。外资进入对我国内资企业的短期影响主要表现为溢出效应,但是对于同行业的其他外资企业呈现挤出效应,特别是其他独资外企。我们进一步发现外资进入的长期影响是挤出效应,但是对于国有企业和民营企业的影响却不尽相同。     

我国外部均衡调节中的估值效应分析

世界金融一体化促进各国对外资产与负债迅速增长。资产价格的非预期变化使一国对外净资产更多地暴露于资本收益和损失风险中,因此,如何实现有利于一国外部均衡的估值效应就显得日益重要。本文对估值效应的理论模型和计量方法进行梳理,并对我国对外净资产变化中的估值效应进行实证分析,结果发现存在负的估值效应,表明我国通过经常项目盈余所聚积的大量资源正在不断地向国外无偿转移,这就要求对外资产管理水平稳步提高。     

我国各省区市金融发展的经济增长效应分析——基于面板数据的时变趋势与区域特征分析

基于31个省区市1994-2005年的经济金融面板数据的实证分析发现.金融规模扩张、结构优化、效率提升确实有助于促进经济增长,且效率提升比规模扩张更有助于促进地区经济增长.金融发展的经济增长效应存在着区域差异,且受各省区市的地区性基础或禀赋因素的影响较大.随着金融体制改革的推进,各地区金融发展对经济发展的适应性逐步增强,但仍受到金融体制的约束,需要进一步深化改革,加快发展.为此,要充分发挥中央政府主导金融制度供给与创新、地方政府主导当地金融生态建设和市场主导金融资源配置的基础性作用,将统筹区域金融协调发展与部分省区市金融率先发展有机统一起来.     

Industry Effects on the Determinants of Unquoted SMEs' Capital Structure

This paper reports a study of 3500 unquoted, UK small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs). The objectives of the research were to test various hypotheses concerning the determinants of SME capital structure and to establish whether and how the relationship of these determinants to long- and short-term debt varied between industries. Long-term debt was found to be related positively to asset structure and company size and negatively to age; short-term debt was related negatively to profitability, asset structure, size and age and positively to growth. Significant variation across industries was found in most of the explanatory variables. The effect of growth on short-term debt, however, was consistent across industries whilst profitability had no effect on long-term borrowing in any industry.     

绿色壁垒的壳层结构及其效应研究

绿色壁垒具有全球性条款、区域性协定和国别性措施三个壳层结构,壳层结构之间和壳层结构内部存在着梯度变化关系,且由外向内依次递增,突破难度依次增大.作为发展中国家的我国产品出口必须有针对性地对这种绿色壁垒的壳层结构实施逐层突破,建立相应的危机预警和防范体系,才能增强其出口产品基于环境的国际竞争力.