A Closer Look at the Relation between GARCH and Stochastic Autoregressive Volatility

We show that, for three common SARV models, fitting a minimummean square linear filter is equivalent to fitting a GARCH model.This suggests that GARCH models may be useful for filtering,forecasting, and parameter estimation in stochastic volatilitysettings. To investigate, we use simulations to evaluate howthe three SARV models and their associated GARCH filters performunder controlled conditions and then we use daily currency andequity index returns to evaluate how the models perform in arisk management application. Although the GARCH models produceless precise forecasts than the SARV models in the simulations,it is not clear that the performance differences are large enoughto be economically meaningful. Consistent with this view, wefind that the GARCH and SARV models perform comparably in testsof conditional value-at-risk estimates using the actual data.     

An institutional analysis of supply chain innovations in global marketing channels

The adoption of sophisticated supply chain innovations by trading partners in global channels of distribution is often limited by the institutional context of the international transaction. In particular, the regulatory, normative, and cultural-cognitive elements of institutional environments around the world can enhance or inhibit the ability of trading partners to craft the contractual, ownership, and social elements of institutional arrangements required by an innovation. Because supply chain innovations often require costly, new investments and activity sets, firms may be reluctant to participate in an innovation unless a new institutional arrangement can be crafted to provide adequate safeguards and guarantees. A conceptual model is developed to explain the role of institutions in the successful deployment of supply chain innovations in global marketing channels.     

房地产企业开发经营绩效的影响因素研究

在分析房地产开发经营过程中关键价值活动的基础上，深入研究影响房地产开发经营绩效的四大因素：规划设计、施工质量、营销策划和物业管理的基本内容，以及其指标体系。以大最的数据调查为依据，对四大影响因素与房地产开发经营绩效关系模型的进行分析，为房地产开发企业的经营战略提供积极的指导价值。     

供应链金融利益主体的多阶段博弈研究

现代经济中,金融在资源配置方面发挥的作用明显不足,出现严重的资源浪费和供需错配现象,加剧了中小企业面临的融资难问题.本文从供应链金融的内涵切入,建立以利益相关者为主体的融资量化模型,利用多阶段博弈理论对企业不同模式下的成本收益进行检验,结果表明:供应链金融在实现上、下游各利益相关者个体的最优化的同时,也可有效促使供应链整体的利益最大化、实现高效运作和价值增值,全面实现链上企业间的资源共享、互利共赢.     

Optimizing the credit term decisions in supply chain finance

We study a credit term determination problem in the context of a supplier-buyer supply chain. The supplier's credit term decision is simultaneously made with its production and inventory decisions, and most importantly, it is impacted by the buyer's order quantity. We present a new game-theoretic framework to model this problem, which captures the interaction between the supplier's credit term decision and the buyer's order decision in a multi-period setting. An exact method based on nonlinear programming is implemented to obtain the optimal solutions. We apply our methodologies on a real world case. The computational results show that our approach significantly outperforms the heuristics with fixed credit terms, and either a short or a long credit term can be sub-optimal for the supplier in profitability. Our work offers the first data-driven model and solution approach that assists purchasing and supply managers to make optimal dynamic credit term decision in conjunction with production, ordering and inventory decisions in a game-theoretic setting.     

取消农业税后河北省农村公共产品供给体制重构研究

中国农村公共产品供给体制存在先天性缺陷,取消农业税,一方面使这一体制进一步削弱,另一方面也为体制的重构提供了契机。河北省农村公共产品供给体制的重构,核心是重新划分各级政府在不同种类公共产品供给上的职责,并建立与其相适应的财力保证制度、激励与监督制度。     

基于SWOT的南通海产品冷链物流发展研究

随着人们生活水平的不断提高,海产品的消费量得以高速增长,海产品的品质要求也得到更高重视。但现有的冷链物流无法确保海产品质量安全,断链现象时有发生而造成较大经济与社会效益的损失。文章以南通市为例分析了海产品冷链物流发展面临的优势、劣势、机会及威胁,认为南通海产品冷链物流虽然发展较快,但没有建立统一的冷链物流信息系统,断链现象严重、冷链物流人才缺乏、运营成本高、国外大型物流企业进入带来的竞争压力等严重抑制了南通海产品冷链物流的发展。建议采用新型信息技术、建立海产品冷链物流信息平台来提升整个南通海产品冷链物流的效率,通过引进与培养专业人才来提升冷链物流企业的管理理念与管理水平,通过加大政府与社会资源投入来构建冷链物流体系降低交易成本。这些措施的实施,有望促进南通海产品冷链物流的进一步发展。     

甘肃省食用植物油供需波动变化研究

食用植物油是人民群众的生活必需品,其消费量已成为衡量一个国家人民生活水平的重要标志,并在国家食物安全中占有重要的地位,保障其供给安全,对促进经济发展和社会稳定具有重要意义。文章收集整理了1978~2012年甘肃省油料作物和食用植物油相关数据,运用速度法和数理统计等方法,从产量、供给、需求、消费量、库存消费比等方面,分析研究甘肃省食用植物油供需波动变化情况。研究得出油料市场供给基本满足消费需求,但油料作物种植发展缓慢,产业化水平较低;食用植物油供需波动处于紧平衡状态,自给率仅为76%左右,省外购进的量远远大于外销量,消费需求的增长速度超过产量的增长,食用植物油缺口较大,同时存在种植品种与加工品种、品种结构与市场需求、区域性产销不协调之处。通过综合分析研究,构建了"以自给为主,贸易调剂为铺"的供给模式,提出了提高食用植物油安全供给的政策选择,为甘肃省食用植物油发展提供了新思路和科学依据,对保障甘肃省食用植物油安全供给具有重要意义。     

山西省粮食生产时空变化及供求现状分析

目的 探析山西省粮食生产的时空变化及粮食供需结构现状。方法 文章选取2010—2019年山西省粮食生产和消费数据,借助ArcGIS10.2软件、EXCEL软件,采用重心研究模型和粮食安全贡献度模型,综合探析近年来山西省粮食供需变化及粮食安全现状。结果 （1）2001—2019年山西省粮食面积和产量整体稳中有增;种植结构以玉米、小麦为主,谷子、大豆、马铃薯为辅,以及高粱、燕麦、荞麦等小杂粮类;10年来,粮食生产变化表现为以增加玉米,减少小麦和杂粮生产为特点。（2）2010—2019年大豆、燕麦和小麦的产量重心表现为由西北向东南转移,其他种类均呈现由西南向东北方向转移;种植结构变化幅度由大到小依次为：马铃薯>荞麦>大豆>高粱>燕麦>玉米>谷子>小麦。（3）2011—2019年全省粮食产量稳定情况下,以2014年为转折点粮食需求量先降低再增加,调出量先增加再减少,至2018全省粮食调出量减少为负值;粮食需求结构中,口粮占53.65%,饲料用粮占比29.68%,工业用量仅占13.53%。运城市的粮食安全贡献度最大,其次为临汾市、忻州市、朔州市和晋中市较高,长治市、大同市、吕梁市和晋城市较低;太原市和阳泉市最低,为负值。结论 山西省粮食生产表现为总体平衡,种植优势由西南向东北方向转移的趋势,且各作物种植时空变化规律性不强;种植结构尚未形成区域特色产业,粮食需求量仍有逐年递增的趋势,粮食安全仍不容忽视。     

如何利用物流提高企业竞争力

21世纪是物流的世纪。近几年来,有效的物流管理已经被认为是提高企业赢利能力和竞争绩效的关键因素。与其他竞争手段不同的是:一个企业的物流能力是其竞争对手无法在短时间内轻易或者廉价模仿的。因而,一旦企业在物流方面拥有了高效率的物流管理系统,无疑将使企业保持长久的竞争力。文中着眼于企业物流活动的全过程,说明如何在物流活动的众多关键环节上切实降低企业成本,提高企业竞争力。