A credit scoring model for Vietnam's retail banking market

As banking markets in developing countries are maturing, banks face competition not only from other domestic banks but also from sophisticated foreign banks. Given the substantial growth of consumer credit and increased regulatory attention to risk management, the development of a well-functioning credit assessment framework is essential. As part of such a framework, we propose a credit scoring model for Vietnamese retail loans. First, we show how to identify those borrower characteristics that should be part of a credit scoring model. Second, we illustrate how such a model can be calibrated to achieve the strategic objectives of the bank. Finally, we assess the use of credit scoring models in the context of transactional versus relationship lending.     

Executive stock options and IPO underpricing

In about one-third of US IPOs between 1996 and 2000, executives received stock options with an exercise price equal to the IPO offer price rather than a market-determined price. Among firms with such “IPO options”, 58% of top executives realize a net benefit from underpricing: the gain from the options exceeds the loss from the dilution of their pre-IPO shareholdings. If executives can influence either the IPO offer price or the timing and terms of their stock option grants, there should be a positive relation between IPO option grants and underpricing. We find no evidence of such a relation. Our results contrast sharply with the emerging literature on managerial self-dealing at shareholder expense.     

Stock exchange governance initiatives: Evidence from the Italian STARs

Can a stock exchange improve corporate governance and transparency by designating companies that exhibit superior corporate governance? In 2000, the Borsa Italiana created a mid-cap segment with strong listing standards, which is composed of firms (called STARS) that follow stricter standards of transparency, disclosure, monitoring and liquidity. We find that STAR firms exhibit governance characteristics not observed in non-STAR firms, such as a higher incidence of audit and executive committees and higher debt ratios. They experienced a modestly favorable share price response upon the implementation of the STAR initiative. Moreover, they experienced significantly higher buy and hold returns and transparency after the initiative. Several governance characteristics are cross-sectionally associated with performance following the STAR initiative. Overall, the results suggest that firms may be willing to improve governance when they are endorsed by a credible agency for doing so, and such improvements may lead to better performance. The STAR initiative may serve as a model that can be adapted by other stock exchanges to promote transparency and governance.     

The adjustment of credit ratings in advance of defaults

This paper assesses biases in credit ratings and lead–lag relationships for near-to-default issuers with multiple ratings by Moody’s and S&P. Based on defaults from 1997 to 2004, we find evidence that Moody’s seems to adjust its ratings to increasing default risk in a timelier manner than S&P. Second, credit ratings by the two US-based agencies are not subject to any home preference. Third, given a downgrade (upgrade) by the first rating agency, subsequent downgrades (upgrades) by the second rating agency are of greater magnitude in the short term. Fourth, harsher rating changes by one agency are followed by harsher rating changes in the same direction by the second agency. Fifth, rating changes by the second rating agency are significantly more likely after downgrades than after upgrades by the first rating agency. Additionally, we find evidence for serial correlation in rating changes up to 90 days subsequent to the rating change of interest after controlling for rating changes by the second rating agency.     

Soft related lending: A tale of two Korean banks

In this paper, we present indirect evidence that the IMFs insistence on foreign control of two large nationwide Korean banks in exchange for short-term support during the 1997 financial crisis helped restrain soft related lending practices. News signaling the likely sale of a bank to a foreign financial institution yields an average daily decrease of about 2% in the stock price of related borrowers. News indicating difficulty in finding an interested foreign investor generates an increase in the stock price of related borrowers of about the same magnitude. These signals have larger impacts on less-profitable, less-liquid, and more bank-dependent firms.     

Valuation of synthetic CDOs

In this paper, we consider the valuation of a synthetic collateralized debt obligation (CDO), a pool of underlying credit risky securities, “partitioned” into several tranches, each of which absorbs losses in accordance with its size and seniority. We derive a closed-form solution for credit spreads of the tranches of homogeneous pools and find an approximation for the credit spreads of inhomogeneous pools. The method leads to an accurate estimation of the credit spreads of synthetic CDOs and can be used in risk management applications.     

浅谈日本三菱重工BOPP双向拉伸生产线网络控制结构

本文论述了现代企业典型的工业自动化系统的三层网络结构,并阐述了三层网络在BOPP双向拉伸生产线上的应用.     

The Inequality of Regional Economic Development in China between 1991 and 2001

This paper measures the unequal development of the regional economies in China and investigates the primary factors leading to the inequality. The official data on China's regional GDP and the regional GDP of three industrial sectors from 1991–2001, as reported in the China Statistical Yearbook and A Statistical Survey of China, are adopted to calculate and decompose the Gini coefficient for each year. The primary finding is that the levels of inequality in China's regional economies clearly showed a slight upward trend after 1991. The inequality of the overall GDP is primarily attributed to the between-group effect rather than to the within-group effect. It is also found that the regional inequality of the secondary industry sector's development accounted for half of the overall inequality. Thus, this study suggests that it is crucial for China to formulate and adhere to policies that will help it to develop the economy more equally among all areas and to develop the secondary industry sector among all regions/provinces in order to overcome the important issue of the inequality in regional economic development.     

NATURAL RESOURCE ABUNDANCE,INSTITUTIONS AND TAX REVENUE MOBILISATION IN SUB‐SAHARA AFRICA

The contribution of natural resources to tax revenues has generally yielded mixed results in the literature. This study asserts that the missing link to explaining these differences is the quality of institutions. More resource revenues reduce tax revenues when institutions are poor. Using an interaction term for natural resources and institutional quality, we show that institutions are decisive for the contribution of natural resources to tax revenue mobilisation. The interaction effect is statistically significant after controlling for per capita gross domestic product (GDP), an alternative measure of quality of institutions and additional regressors. This finding is robust to different econometric specifications and the type of natural resources.