The international transmission of monetary policy

This paper presents the novel results from an internationally coordinated project by the International Banking Research Network (IBRN) on the cross-border transmission of conventional and unconventional monetary policy through banks. Teams from seventeen countries use confidential micro-banking data for the years 2000 through 2015 to explore the international transmission of monetary policies of the United States, euro area, Japan, and United Kingdom. Two other studies use international data with different degrees of granularity. International spillovers into lending to the private sector do occur, especially for US policies, and bank-specific heterogeneity influences the magnitudes of transmission. The effects are supportive of the international bank lending channel and the portfolio channel of monetary policy transmission. They also show that the frictions that banks face matter; in particular, foreign currency funding and hedging considerations can be a key source of heterogeneity. The forms of bank balance sheet heterogeneity that differentiate spillovers across banks are not uniform across countries. International spillovers into lending can be large for some banks, even while the average international spillovers of policies into nonbank lending generally are not large.     

Nexus between telecommunication infrastructures,economic growth and development in Africa: Panel vector autoregression (P-VAR) analysis

This study examines the causal-effect relationship between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development in selected African countries. It further estimates the trivariate impacts of telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development in the region. The analysis considers a panel of forty-six African countries from 2000 to 2015. To measure economic growth, real gross domestic product serves as the proxy, while economic development is measured by the Human Development Index, and telecommunication infrastructures by a composite index of telecommunication computed from mobile line, fixed line and internet access penetration via principal component analysis (PCA). The empirical results suggest the existence of a bidirectional long-run relationship between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development. The causality tests reveal that there is feedback causality between telecommunication infrastructures, economic growth and development. Telecommunication infrastructures promote economic growth and development in Africa and vice versa. Thus, there is need to promote inclusive and holistic policies that will enhance digital provide, economic growth and development simultaneously in Africa. An increase in telecommunication infrastructures will encourage aggregate output and standard of living to move in the same direction in Africa.     

BENFORD'S LAW AS AN INDICATOR OF SURVEY RELIABILITY—CAN WE TRUST OUR DATA?

This paper analyzes how closely different income measures conform to Benford's law, a mathematical predictor of probable first digit distribution across many sets of numbers. Because Benford's law can be used to test data set reliability, we use a Benford analysis to assess the quality of six widely used survey data sets. Our findings indicate that although income generally obeys Benford's law, almost all the data sets show substantial discrepancies from it, which we interpret as a strong indicator of reliability issues in the survey data. This result is confirmed by a simulation, which demonstrates that household level income data do not manifest the same poor performance as individual level data. This finding implies that researchers should focus on household level characteristics whenever possible to reduce observation errors.     

The economic contribution of the “C” in ICT: Evidence from OECD countries

Numerous studies have documented the contribution of ICT to growth. Less has been done on the contribution of communications technology, the “C” in ICT. We construct an international dataset of fourteen OECD countries and present contributions to growth for each ICT asset (IT hardware, CT equipment and software) using alternative ICT deflators. Using each country’s deflator we find that the contribution of CT capital deepening to productivity growth is lower in the EU than the US. Thus we ask: is that lower contribution due to a lower rate of CT investment or differing sources and methods for measurement of price change? We find that: (a) there are still considerable disparities in measures of ICT price change across countries; (b) in terms of growth-accounting, price harmonisation has a greater impact on the measured contributions of IT hardware and software in the EU relative to the US, than that of CT equipment; over 1996–2013, harmonising investment prices explains just 15% of the gap in the EU CT contribution relative to the US, compared to 25% for IT hardware; (c) over 1996–2013, CT capital deepening accounted for 0.11% pa (6% as a share) of labour productivity growth (LPG) in the US, compared to 0.03% pa (2.5% of LPG) in the EU-13 when using national accounts deflators; and (d) using OECD harmonised deflators, the figure for the EU-13 is raised to 0.04% pa (4% of LPG).     

Getting From ‘Me’ to ‘We’: Role Clarity,Team Process,and the Transition From Individual Knowledge to Shared Mental Models in Employee Dyads

Shared mental models are crucial for team functioning; however, little research to date has focussed on uncovering the predictors of shared mental models. The present study investigates the effect of role clarity on shared mental models by means of its indirect effects via team process. Two hundred and two undergraduate students participated in a dyadic firefighting simulation in which their role clarity, team process, and mental model similarity were measured. Analyses conducted at the dyadic level suggest that role clarity predicts mental model similarity via its effects on team process. Copyright © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial Concentration of Innovation Activities in China and the Role of Mega‐economic Zones

This paper analyzes the development of spatial concentration of various innovation activities in China from 2000 to 2015 by using a generalized Theil index based on a balanced provincial dataset. It tracks concentration development back to the developing heterogeneity within and between regions in general and the mega‐economic zones in particular. Results show that innovation activities tend to be distributed unequally across provinces in China, with more pronounced unequal distribution of innovation outcomes than innovation inputs. Over the research period, the innovation activities considered became more and more equally distributed across provinces. The between‐region inequality of innovation activities has, however, not yet significantly improved, despite the implementation of Chinese regional policies to encourage more equal regional development. Instead, more equal distribution of innovation activities within mega‐economic zones is observed.     

Impact of responsive and proactive market orientation on SME performance: The moderating role of economic crisis perception

This study examines the relationship between market orientation (MO) and the performance of small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) within the context of economic crisis. It distinguishes between two levels of MO: responsive market orientation (RMO) and proactive market orientation (PMO). Data were collected on a sample of 300 SME. Findings indicate that SMEs, confronted with an economic downturn, use a MO approach that is both proactive and responsive, and reveal the moderator effect of the SME manager's perception of an economic crisis on PMO/RMO–performance. Research and practical implications are discussed. © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于事故致因“2-4”模型的粮堆埋人事故原因分析及预防对策研究

粮堆埋人事故发生率高,人员生还率低.为研究事故发生原因和预防措施,采用事故致因"2-4"模型对46起粮堆埋人事故进行分析.首先,从个人层面分析事故的直接原因和间接原因;其次,从组织层面分析事故发生的根本原因和根源原因;最后,构建粮堆埋人事故致因链,提出预防对策.结果表明:在不稳定粮堆表面作业、安全培训不到位等不安全动作和挡粮板设计不合理等不安全物态是导致事故的直接原因;安全知识不足、安全意识不高和安全习惯不佳是事故发生的间接原因;安全检查制度、外包管理制度、安全设施设备管理制度等的缺欠和落实不到位,结拱、挂壁处理和粮食出入仓作业规程等的缺欠或未严格规范人员作业是事故发生的根本原因;事故发生的根源原因是安全文化缺欠.     

Dividend policy and investor pressure

The economics of dividend policy has focused on the single tight narrative that dividends keep managers honest, mitigating concerns that they over-invest. This article provides a critique of that agency narrative, arguing that pressure from short-term focused investors, executives and board members pushes the firm into preemptive actions of returning too much cash via dividends. We analyze three channels of influence for investor pressure through 1) threat of takeovers, 2) shareholder value oriented corporate governance, measured by director independence and board equity incentives, and 3) trading and institutional ownership patterns. We find that firms adopt a higher dividend payout to discourage takeover bids. Also, FTSE 100 firms, that are most focused on shareholder value governance in the form of equity-based compensation and a higher share of independent directors, display a higher dividend payout. Frequency of trading and ownership by transient investors seeking current profits also predict increased dividend payout. Traditional agency theory, focused on dividends as a tool for managerial discipline, is not strongly supported by the results, which rather support a narrative of short-term investor pressure on firms irrespective of investment opportunities.     

Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve,and what would it require?

The current global food crisis has reemphasized the costliness of Africa's failure to achieve food security and poverty reduction. The instrument by which other more successful developing countries achieved these outcomes was a “Green Revolution” in agriculture. While previous research has provided largely discursive appraisals of the viability of an African Green Revolution, this article adopts a more rigorous methodology to address that question. First, an economy‐wide multimarket model, augmented with existing poverty–growth elasticities, is developed to assess the likely impacts of a rapid acceleration in food production (of the kind witnessed in previous Green Revolutions) on food prices, consumption and demand, farmer revenue, and poverty. Our results suggest that a rapid growth in staple production, together with more integrated regional markets, would reduce food prices by roughly 20–40% for consumers and 10–20% for producers among the major crops. This translates into a large rise in farm revenues, annual agricultural growth rates of 6.5% or higher, broader income growth and food security, and over 70 million Africans being lifted out of poverty. The article concludes by emphasizing the kinds of fundamental policy actions and resources that would be required for achieving these outcomes.