Protecting Education for the Poor in Times of Crisis: An Evaluation of a Scholarship Programme in Indonesia*

This paper analyses the impact of an Indonesian scholarship programme, which was implemented in 1998 to preserve access to education for the poor during the economic crisis. Scholarships were targeted pro-poor and the allocation process followed a decentralized design, involving both geographic and individual targeting. The identification strategy exploits this decentralized structure, relying on instrumental variables constructed from regional mistargeting at the initial phase of allocation. The programme has increased enrolment, especially for primary school-aged children from poor rural households. Moreover, the scholarships seem to have assisted households in smoothing consumption during the crisis, relieving pressure on households’ investments in education and utilization of child labour.     

What Caused the Korean Currency Crisis in 1997?*: Weak Fundamentals or Self‐fulfilling Expectations*

The present paper investigates which factor is primarily responsible for the sharp depreciation of the Korean won against the US dollar in 1997, using a bivariate vector autoregressive model of real and nominal exchange rates. In the present study, we directly identify the relative importance of fundamental and non‐fundamental factors from the raw data series on exchange rates. This approach is different from most previous studies on the Korean currency crisis, which use proxy variables to represent the two factors. The empirical results show that the collapse of the Korean currency in 1997 appears to be mostly a result of the weakened macroeconomic fundamentals of the economy with, to a limited extent, some non‐fundamental factors.     

RELATIVE FACTOR PRICES IN THE PERIPHERY DURING THE FIRST GLOBAL CENTURY: ANY LESSONS FOR TODAY?

Globalisation before 1939 had profound effects on factor prices and income distribution, especially between the industrialising core economies and the economies of periphery. Jeffrey Williamson reflects briefly on: the impact of globalisation on relative factor price convergence; the interaction between commodity market convergence and convergence in labour and capital markets; and whether the nineteenth history of the periphery was a different history from that of the industrialising European core. Williamson concludes with observations on why the blacklash against globalisation is less severe today than it was during the first global century.     

The Regime-Dependent Determination of Credibility: A New Look at European Interest Rate Differentials

Abstract. With persistence in macroeconomic variables two aspects of exchange rate credibility emerge whose relative importance varies over time. Both aspects have opposite implications for the relation between fundamentals and credibility. Hence, the effect of policy measures on interest rate differentials becomes ambiguous. In this paper a Markov-switching VAR that allows for parameter shifts across regimes is employed to test the hypothesis of regime-dependent determination of credibility for major EMS currencies. Regime-dependent impulse response functions reveal substantial differences in the response of spreads to macroeconomic shocks across regimes.     

Resource Curse or Not: A Question of Appropriability*

Whether natural resources are good or bad for a country's development are shown to depend on the interaction between institutional setting and, crucially, the types of resources possessed by the country. Some natural resources are, for economical and technical reasons, more likely to cause problems such as rent‐seeking and conflicts than others. This potential problem can, however, be countered by good institutional quality. In contrast to the traditional resource curse hypothesis, we show the impact of natural resources on economic growth to be non‐monotonic in institutional quality, and increasingly so for certain types of resources. In particular, countries rich in minerals are cursed only if they have low‐quality institutions, while the curse is reversed if institutions are sufficiently good. Furthermore, if countries are rich in diamonds and precious metals, these effects—both positive and negative—are larger.     

Adapting consumer products to lesser-developed markets

Different types of modern consumer products require substantially different amounts and types of adaptation in preparing them for marketing in Lesser-Developed Countries (LDCs). This study reports conclusions drawn from an empirical study of 174 products marketed by 61 subsidiaries of multinational corporations operating in 22 different LDCs. Some product categories, such as foods and drinks, require adapting to fit them more appropriately for LDC marketing conditions. Other categories, such as cosmetics, undergo few adaptations, as their makers seek to reap the benefit of their products' established images in LDCs. Still other categories, such as pharmaceuticals, undergo minimal adaptations, because of the substantial advantages their makers attach to global standardization.     

Selecting Winning New Product Projects: Using the NewProd System

Separating probable winners from probable losers is the goal of the new product screening task, and Professor Robert G. Cooper has developed a model that does this with remarkable success. In this article, he reviews various approaches to new product screening and then presents the basics of the NewProd model. NewProd now has a history of use in industry that seems to be fulfilling its original research promise. Professor Cooper shows how managers can build their own screening models and outlines how such models can contribute in an important way to better new product selection decisions. Over the years, Professor Cooper has conducted a series of major research projects that have aimed at improvements in the new product process. Their hallmark has been managerial relevance and a sound theoretical foundation. This article, the third that Professor Cooper has published in JPIM , is in the same tradition.     

On the Segregation of Genetically Modified,Conventional and Organic Products in European Agriculture: A Multi‐market Equilibrium Analysis

Evaluating the possible benefits of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops must address the issue of consumer resistance as well as the complex regulation that has ensued. In the European Union (EU), this regulation envisions the co‐existence of GM food with conventional and quality‐enhanced products, mandates the labelling and traceability of GM products and allows only a stringent adventitious presence of GM content in other products. All these elements are brought together within a partial equilibrium model of the EU agricultural food sector. The model comprises conventional, GM and organic food. Demand is modelled in a novel fashion, whereby organic and conventional products are treated as horizontally differentiated but GM products are vertically differentiated (weakly inferior) relative to conventional ones. Supply accounts explicitly for the land constraint at the sector level and for the need for additional resources to produce organic food. Model calibration and simulation allow insights into the qualitative and quantitative effects of the large‐scale introduction of GM products in the EU market. We find that the introduction of GM food reduces overall EU welfare, mostly because of the associated need for costly segregation of non‐GM products, but the producers of quality‐enhanced products actually benefit.