出口贸易风险测度及其影响因素分析——基于跨国数据的经验研究

将部门的出口份额与构建的部门产出方差协方差矩阵相结合,通过定义一国出口结构风险指数,并利用出口结构风险指数对样本国家在样本期内的出口风险进行测算。同时,把出口风险指数分解为赫芬达尔项、平均风险项、协方差效应项以及赫芬达尔项与平均风险项的交互项。最后,选取影响一国出口风险的主要宏观经济变量,利用跨国面板数据对出口风险进行影响因素分析,结果表明：在诸多宏观经济因素中,出口贸易条件和金融开放程度对一国出口风险的影响最为显著,而一国的人均收入水平则对该国的出口风险影响不明显。     

Estimation of Public–Private Wage Differentials in Turkey with Sample Correction

The aim of this study is to determine how the change in the balance between public–private sector employments affected public and private earnings during the 1990s and 2000s in Turkey. We use the Oaxaca–Blinder and quantile decomposition methods to determine the wage gap between public and private sectors utilizing the 1994 Household Income Distribution and Consumption Expenditure Survey and the 2008 Household Budget Survey conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute. The study determined that the primary difference in the average wages between sectors arises from the differences in the endowments without correction for gender. After adjusting for correction using quantile regression, we find that the difference in the endowments between sectors at lower quantiles explains the majority of the raw wage gap; whereas a substantial amount of the raw wage gap is explained by the sector effect at higher quantiles.     

The Influence and Driving Factors of Foreign Trade on China＇s CO2 Emission

本文采用多边投入产出模型的贸易数据计算1997—2008年贸易内涵CO2量,结果显示,对外贸易不利于我国CO。减排量（BEET）目标的实现,但有利于降低我国的碳排放强度（PTT）。本文同时利用Divisia指数分解模型对上述结果进行了解释。各部门BEET的分解结果显示,规模效应是造成我国净内涵CO2增加的重要原因,而技术效应有利于我国环境质量（CO2减排量）的提高,但结构效应的作用并不明显。对各部门的PTT做Divisia指数分解结果表明,技术效应有利于降低我国污染强度,结构效应的影响并不统一,可以通过结构效应和技术效应的“交叉”作用,降低CO2排放强度。     

Valuation of American options under the CGMY model

In the present work, we concentrate on the analytical study of American options under the CGMY process. The decomposition formula of the American option and the integral equation for the optimal-exercise boundary are established in explicit forms. Moreover, an analytical approximation formula is obtained for the American value. This approximation is valid when time to maturity is either very short or very long. Numerical simulations are provided for European options, optimal-exercise prices and approximate values for American options.     

中国股票市场波动率分解及长期趋势研究

Campbell等（2001）为实证研究市场的长期趋势特征提出了市场波动率分解模型，其特点是将波动率按成因进行分解并且该分解不依赖于β系数。采用该模型，本文将我国股票市场1991至2004年的波动率实证分解为市场波动率、行业波动率和公司波动率。研究了我国股票市场三种波动率的长期变化趋势。与美国市场相比（美国市场1962至1997年间市场和行业波动率保持稳定而公司波动率增长了一倍），本文的实证结果表明：我国市场1991至2004年间市场、行业和公司波动率均存在显著的下降趋势；表现出了与国际市场不同的趋势特点；随着时间的推进，我国股票市场在不断成熟、市场效率不断提高。进一步的研究表明，1998年后我国股票市场中市场波动率最大。公司波动率略小，而行业波动率则远小于前两者。本文的研究结论将为政策制定者和投资组合风险管理者提供宏观借鉴，我国投资风险管理的战略重点首先应对冲市场风险，其次分散公司风险。     

The effect of democracy on different categories of economic freedom

Many empirical studies conclude that democracy increases economic freedom. However, these studies use highly aggregated indices of economic freedom, which eliminates interesting information. The purpose of this paper is to study empirically how in developing countries different categories of economic freedom are affected by democracy, measured either as political rights or civil liberties. Democracy appears to have a positive effect on the economic freedom categories Government Operations and Regulations and Restraints on International Exchange, but no effect on the categories Money and Inflation and Takings and Discriminatory Taxation. That a high level of democracy would have a negative effect on economic freedom reform receives no support in this study. The robustness of the results to the model specification and extreme points is tested.     

人民币汇率、贸易方式与产品质量

本文基于2000-2006年合并的中国海关数据库和工业企业数据库,考察了人民币汇率变动对制造业企业出口产品质量的影响。本研究发现人民币升值有利于提升出口产品质量。进一步,结合贸易方式,我们发现人民币升值能提高一般贸易产品质量,但却对加工贸易产品质量产生负面影响。我们对总体质量变动进行分解并计算了各因素贡献度,发现在样本期间,存续企业显著提升了企业产品质量。同时,企业的进入退出会对整体市场产品质量产生重要影响。另外,我们发现人民币升值时,低质量产品相对高质量产品更多地退出市场,从而使得留在市场上的整体产品的质量得到提高,然而这一效应对加工贸易并不明显。     

The evolution of death rates and life expectancy in Denmark

From 1835 to date Denmark has experienced an increase in life expectancy at birth of about 40 years for both sexes. Over the course of the last 170 years, life expectancy at birth has increased from 40 to 80 years for women and from 36 to 76 years for men, and it continues to rise. Using a new methodology, we show that about half of the total historic increase can be attributed to the sharp decline in infant and young age death rates up to 1950. However, life expectancy gains from 1950 to date can be primarily attributed to improvements in the age-specific death rates for the age group from 50 to 80, although there is also a noticeable contribution from the further decline in infant mortality over this period. With age-specific death rates up to age 60 now at a very low absolute level, substantial future life expectancy improvements must necessarily arise from improvements in age-specific death rates for ages 60 and above. Using the developed methodology, we quantify the impact of further reductions in age-specific mortality. Despite being one of countries with the highest life expectancy at the beginning of the 20th century, and despite the spectacular historic increase in life expectancy since then, Denmark is, in fact, lagging behind compared to many other countries, notably the other Nordic countries. The main reason is an alarming excess mortality for cause-specific death rates related to ischaemic heart diseases and, in particular, a number of cancer diseases. Age-specific death rates continue to improve in most countries, and a likely scenario is that in the future Denmark will experience improvement rates at the international level or perhaps even higher as a result of a catch-up effect.     

钢材期货价格发现功能研究——基于印度市场信息共享模型的分析

本文借助Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、信息共享模型、方差分解等方法进行多层次实证研究,定量地刻画出期货市场在价格发现中作用的大小。研究结果显示：印度板材期货价格和现货价格之间存在长期均衡关系,在价格引导上仅存在现货对期货价格的单向引导关系,期货对现货没有引导关系;通过方差分解发现,现货市场在价格发现功能中处于主导地位,说明印度钢材期货市场效率有待提高,板材期货没有实现其应有的价格发现功能。     

The productivity performance of Irish dairy farms 1984–2000: a multiple output distance function approach

This study measures productivity growth on Irish dairy farms over the period 1984–2000. A total factor productivity index is constructed for the dairy system and is decomposed into technical change, efficiency change, and changes in scale efficiency. This is achieved by estimating a stochastic output distance function model of the production technology in use on Irish dairy farms. Overall, productivity on Irish dairy farms grew by 1.2% per annum over the sample period.