论我国企业核心竞争力的辨识和培育

概括了国内外企业理论中有关企业核心竞争力研究的主要成果并指出了其中的不足之处,进而明确了本文的研究方向,即,从两个方面展开对企业核心竞争力的研究,一方面从有关概念、力的空间分布、分布的层次和力的整合四个角度来辨识企业的核心竞争力,为我国企业辨识自己的核心竞争力提供科学的工具;另一方面,根据对企业核心竞争力的辨识,从企业集团的核心竞争力现状的调查研究、构建和完善企业集团竞争力体系、明确增强企业集团竞争力的方法路径等三个方面设计出了如何培育我国企业的核心竞争力的路径和方法.     

社会化网络环境下关键用户识别与产品知识扩散研究

随着社会化商务时代的到来,越来越多的商家意识到消费者网络对产品扩散的重要性,消费者网络节点重要性评价成为营销领域研究的重要内容。传统社会网络节点评价方法考虑了网络的局部拓扑结构,忽略了节点间的相互影响,PageRank考虑了来自邻居的影响力但忽视了节点间本身的重要性。提出了将社会网络中心性与PageRank方法相结合的消费者网络节点价值评价指标构建方法,基于现实数据构建了消费者网络,通过相似性算法对评价算法进行了讨论,运用SIS模型研究了不同节点的产品知识扩散效果,发现网络节点重要性与产品知识扩散显著相关,WCR算法优于传统中心性指标。     

众包参与程度与关键资源协同共享关系研究

针对现有研究对众包模式如何实现关键资源协同共享缺乏有效论证,尝试解析价值获取理论和商业模式的经典模型,通过提炼重要影响因素,构建基于价值认同的众包模式关键资源协同共享理论模型。在此基础上,针对发包方和接包方开发专用量表,面向真实参与众包项目的网络用户发放体验问卷,运用SmartPLS3.0对发包方结构方程模型与接包方结构方程模型进行模拟,并进行bootstrapping迭代。分析结果表明,众包参与程度与资源协同共享、价值认同感显著正相关,价值认同感和资源协同共享显著正相关,价值认同感为众包参与程度和资源协同共享的不完全中介变量,市场竞争强度对众包参与程度和资源协同共享没有直接调节效应。     

How Likelihood and Identification went Bayesian

This paper considers how the concepts of likelihood and identification became part of Bayesian theory. This makes a nice study in the development of concepts in statistical theory. Likelihood slipped in easily but there was a protracted debate about how identification should be treated. Initially there was no agreement on whether identification involved the prior, the likelihood or the posterior.     

Narrative and VAR approaches to monetary policy: Common identification problems

Romer and Romer [Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H. 1989. Does monetary policy matter? A new test in the spirit of Friedman and Schwartz. In: Blanchard, O.J., Fischer, S. (Eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 121–170; Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 1994. Monetary policy matters. Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 75–88] adopted a narrative approach to address the identification problems in time series models of monetary policy. Based on Federal Reserve documents, the Romers created a dummy variable equal to one in periods when the Federal Reserve contracted in response to perceived inflationary pressures. This paper shows: (1) the dummy variable is predictable from past macroeconomic variables, reflecting the endogenous response of policy to the economy; (2) unpredictable changes in the dummy do not generate dynamic responses that look like the effects of monetary policy. The identification problems that plague time series models also afflict the narrative approach.     

Long memory options: LM evidence and simulations

This paper demonstrates the impact of the observed financial market persistence or long term memory on European option valuation by simple simulation. Many empirical researchers have observed the non-Fickian degrees of persistence in the financial markets different from the Fickian neutral independence (i.i.d.) of the returns innovations assumption of Black–Scholes’ geometric Brownian motion assumption. Moreover, Elliott and van der Hoek [Elliott, R.J., van der Hoek, J., 2003. A general fractional white noise theory and applications to finance. Math. Finance 13, 301–330] provide a theoretical framework for incorporating these findings into the Black–Scholes risk-neutral valuation framework. This paper provides the first graphical demonstration why and how such long term memory phenomena change European option values and provides thereby a basis for informed long term memory arbitrage. By using a simple mono-fractal fractional Brownian motion, it is easy to incorporate the various degrees of persistence into the Black–Scholes pricing formula. Long memory options are of considerable importance in corporate remuneration packages, since stock options are written on a company’s own shares for long expiration periods. It makes a significant difference in the valuation when an option is “blue” or when it is “red.” For a proper valuation of such stock options, the degrees of persistence of the companies’ share markets must be precisely measured and properly incorporated in the warrant valuation, otherwise substantial pricing errors may result.     

游憩机会谱(ROS)理论的产生及其应用

游憩机会谱（ROS）理论是从影响游客体验的角度将游憩地的自然、社会和管理要素相结合，来提供一系列的游憩机会，以确保游客能够得到满意的游憩体验。游憩机会谱理论形成于20世纪60年代，目前已广泛用于国外公共游憩土地的规划与管理。介绍了其产生的历史背景和发展历程，主要内涵及其运用范围，旨在能对中国公共游憩地的使用、管理和旅游业的发展有所借鉴。     

农业现代化的本质要求:农民从身份到职业的转换

农民身份化和职业化有着本质的差别。中国农民至今所代表的还是一种身份,由此阻碍了农业现代化的进程。中国自改革开放以来,经济社会结构的变迁事实上开始推动着农民从身份化到职业化的转换。正确地认识这一趋势并自觉地促进其转换,对于加速中国农业现代化具有重大意义。中国农民从身份化到职业化转换表现为多向裂变。     

有输入的多层逆阶模型用于区域地下水位预报

文中针对地下水这个时变动态系统，建立了地下水位序列的多层递阶预报模型，通过对随机参数的预报，并考虑降雨和灌溉这一动态输入，使预报精度有较大提高．     

集群式供应链系统的风险识别研究

本文在对集群式供应链系统的风险进行定义的基础上,结合金融风险管理中广泛使用的识别工具:情景分析法和流程图法,对集群式供应链系统的风险识别方法进行了分析,提出了集群式供应链系统风险管理的相关内容。