基于GMDH网络的我国外汇储备影响因素实证研究

近年来,我国外汇储备规模不断扩大,搞清楚影响外汇储备规模变化的因素则变得非常重要。当前比较流行的协整分析方法,虽然有效地克服了在线性回归模型中存在的伪回归问题,但是它只能描述非平稳序列之间的长期线性均衡关系,对于非线性的相关关系则无法描述。本文根据外汇储备理论,构建外汇需求模型,通过GMDH网络数据驱动型的数学方法演绎,得到了一个实证研究具有良好拟合优度的我国外汇储备的影响因素非线性模型。主要结论是在美元贬值的预期下,我国外汇储备的增长主要受到人民币持有成本的影响。     

Can channel pattern trading be profitably automated?

Financial markets, such as the global foreign exchange (FX) market, often exhibit trending behaviour. Within such trends, the market level oscillates with changes in market consensus. Continued oscillations of this type result in the formation of wave patterns within the underlying trend known as channels, which are used by technical analysts as trade entry signals. A sample space of such channels has been constructed from a set of US dollar/British pound Spot FX tick data from 1989–1997 using pattern recognition algorithms and the profitability of trading using such patterns has been estimated. A number of attributes of the resulting collection of channels has been subjected to statistical analysis with the aim of classifying patterns that can be traded profitably using a number of simple trading rules. Results of this analysis show that there exist statistically significant links between the channels' attributes and profitability.     

新创企业的成长：产业机会、行为资源与创业学习

越来越多的研究正在探讨创业研究的理论范式,早期的研究大多关注新企业的形成而对新企业的成长注意不够。本文认为,创业研究的重点应该关注新企业的成长,并试图提出理论构架,强调新企业的成长是一个环境依赖的动态学习过程,又是一个转换机会、资源创造的战略行为。     

产业转型条件下会展业发展的机遇与对策

本文分析了我国产业转型条件下会展产业所面临的问题,主要有基础设施不足,专业人才缺乏,参与主体单一,区域发展不平衡等。进一步发展会展产业,需要完善法规、深化体制改革、制定产业规划、实施财税支持政策、推进产业集群化发展。     

Evaluation of the opportunity cost of the spectrum: Application to the digital dividend

The transition to digital television transmission (DTT) creates an opportunity for revising the current allocation and use of the spectrum, and for enhancing its efficiency. The fairly large amount of spectrum that will be freed up in the analog TV switch-off is known as the digital dividend. Many EU countries have decided to partially allocate these frequencies, through market mechanisms, to mobile use, but a large fraction of the dividend is supposed to remain in the hands of broadcasters. An efficient management of the spectrum requires that the use of this resource should be supported through appropriate incentive policies. This paper presents a techno-analytical approach to evaluate the opportunity cost of using a spectrum portion within the digital dividends’ bandwidths, for example around 800-900 MHz, for both DVB-T and UMTS services, specifically addressing the extraordinary rise in the use of mobile broadband in the European context. The methodology is then applied to Italy to derive a baseline for administered prices reflecting the cost of spectrum use. Results obtained are then compared with existing evidences from other studies and Countries’ experiences.     

The extent and nature of opportunity identification by experienced entrepreneurs

Guided by insights from cognitive theories, this article explores the links between entrepreneurs' prior business ownership experience and their opportunity identification behavior. Hypotheses were tested using data from 630 entrepreneurs. Experienced entrepreneurs identified more opportunities and exploited more innovative opportunities with greater wealth creation potential. Entrepreneurs that had owned more than 4.5 businesses, however, identified fewer opportunities. The nature of prior business ownership experience also shaped opportunity identification behavior. An inverse U-shaped relationship was detected between the proportion of failed businesses relative to the number of businesses owned and the number of opportunities identified in a given period. Business failure experience was not associated with the innovativeness of exploited opportunities.     

创业导向下双元机会能力对新企业绩效的影响

机会能力在较大程度上影响新企业绩效，但是，已有研究未从双元性角度对机会能力在何种条件下能够更好地促进新企业绩效给出合理解释。在回顾已有研究的基础上，根据理论研究构建了双元机会能力与新创企业绩效间关系及创业导向调节效应的理论模型，并采用多元回归方法对陕西地区199家民营新创企业的调研数据进行实证研究。结果发现：利用型机会能力与企业绩效间呈倒U型关系；探索型机会能力与企业绩效间呈倒U型关系；创业导向对双元机会能力与企业绩效的关系具有调节作用，不同维度的调节作用方向不同。研究结论有助于指导新创企业构建双元机会能力和创业导向战略以获取更好成长与发展。     

Opportunities and institutions: A co-creation story of the king crab industry

If entrepreneurs are constrained and shaped by existing institutions, how? If entrepreneurs products and services, how can institutions remain unchanged? This paper explores this theoretical conundrum empirically through the examination of the actions of entrepreneur Lowell Wakefield. Contrary to previous work that suggests that it is institutional entrepreneurs that bring about institutional change as a means of advancing their social interests, this paper shows that a profit-seeking entrepreneur without prior institutional affiliation or experience can create an opportunity along with the supporting industry standards and regulations.     

Demand supply network opportunity development processes in emerging markets: Positioning for strategy realization in Russia

This paper aims to shed light on the management of supply chains, or rather, demand supply networks (DSN) in emerging markets by foreign companies. According to our definition, specific DSN opportunity development processes are directed towards better functionality and coordination of product, finance and information flows across the DSN. As a consequence, improved performance of the DSN may be achieved, in order to support and realize competitive business strategy and facilitate value creation for customers. To illustrate the concepts and the model, empirical evidence is presented that establishes the role of changing network structures and incumbent capabilities as constraints for DSN opportunity capture, especially in emerging markets. Our results show that DSN positioning strategies designed to overcome these constraints and facilitate opportunity capture, must be proactive, well-timed and innovative.