Adaptive model-based seasonal adjustment of time series: An Empirical Comparison with XII-ARIMA and SIGEX

Several model-based approaches have been proposed in recent years for adjusting and decomposing time series data. Using real world data, this paper presents results of a large scale empirical comparison of the XII-ARIMA and SIGEX procedures to DESAEP, a new adaptive model-based method that combines stochastic and deterministic effects. The comparison reveals no substantial inconsistencies in seasonally adjusted values produced by the 3 methods. As for the magnitude in revisions in both concurrent and forecasted seasonally adjusted values, an overall reduction by a factor of 2 to 3 was obtained with DESAEP depending on the level of variability in the data.     

From Deficits to Debt and Back: Political Incentives under Numerical Fiscal Rules

Under numerical fiscal rules, such as those underpinning EMU,governments have strong temptations to use accounting tricksto meet the fiscal constraints. Given these political incentives,fiscal variables that in the past were regarded as a mere residualacquire a strategic role. This is the case of the so-calledstock-flow adjustment (SFA) which reconciles deficit and debtdevelopments. We develop a simple theoretical model where deficitsand two distinct SFA components (one that could be used to reducethe deficit figures and the other to impact debt figures instead)are determined as a result of a constrained optimisation byfiscal authorities. Econometric evidence provides results consistentwith the model findings. The SFA component related to the purposeto hide deficits rises with the recorded deficit, while thesales of financial assets designed to keep the debt under controlrise with both debt and deficit. When deficits are in excessof the 3 percent limit, accounting gimmicks become more sensitiveto the size of deficits. The SGP per se does not appear to increasethe extent to which higher deficits trigger more accountinggimmicks. However, the SGP seems associated with a more intenseuse of accounting gimmicks irrespective of the level of deficit.Such accounting practices have greatly contributed to the lossof credibility of Economic and Monetary Union's fiscal rules.If properly implemented, the reformed Pact, which stresses durableadjustment and long-run sustainability, should help curb suchperverse incentives. (JEL codes: E61, H62, H87)     

内外经济平衡中存在的矛盾

近年我国贸易顺差不断扩大,同时国内经济又出现投资过热,商务部将"调投资、促消费、减顺差"定为2007年我国经济工作的三大着力点,以平衡内外经济.但是"减顺差"与"调投资"和"促消费"都有一定的矛盾.从平衡贸易角度看,在三者中"促消费"是核心,但也是最难的.政府对公共基础设施的投资如果能够适当扩大,还是有利于减少贸易顺差的.     

Bartlett adjustments for systems of linear equations with linear restrictions

Simple matrix formulae are derived for calculating a Bartlett adjustment to the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing linear parameter restrictions in a system of linear equations. For the special case of column and/or row restrictions on the matrix of coefficients the adjustment is a simple function of matrix dimensions being invariant to sample observations and the error covariance matrix. An example of testing for homogeneity and symmetry in a demand system is given.     

Does the exchange rate regime matter for real shocks? Evidence from windstorms and earthquakes

Does the choice of exchange rate regime affect an economy's adjustment to real shocks? Exploiting the unpredictability and economic exogeniety of windstorms-hurricanes and typhoons-and earthquakes this paper assesses the often contrasting answers found in the theoretical literature. There is robust evidence that exchange rate flexibility helps an economy better adjust to real shocks. And consistent with the channels emphasized in the classic literature on exchange rates and shocks, differences in the behavior of the export sector help explain the different reactions between the two regimes.     

从高管眼中透视上市公司的亏损

文章从高管的角度透视上市公司的亏损,按亏损对上市公司价值的影响将其分为折价型亏损和溢价型亏损,在分析各类亏损产生的原因基础上,指出对于溢价型亏损,高管人员不必惊慌,需要耐心期待;时于折价型亏损.则需要高管人员采取恰当措施进行拯救.     

Sources of support and expatriation: a multiple stakeholder perspective of expatriate adjustment and performance in Malaysia

This research tests the role of perceived support from multinational corporations and host-country nationals for the adjustment of expatriates and their spouses while on international assignments. The investigation is carried out with matched data from 134 expatriates and their spouses based in foreign multinationals in Malaysia. The results highlight the different reliance on support providers that expatriates and their accompanying spouses found beneficial for acclimatizing to the host-country environment. Improved adjustment in turn was found to have positive effects on expatriates' performance. The research findings have implications for both international human resource management researchers and practitioners.     

Price Rigidity and Industrial Concentration: Evidence from the Indonesian Food and Beverages Industry

This paper investigates the relationship between industrial concentration and price rigidity in the Indonesian food and beverages industry. A Cournot model of firm behavior is used in which prices adjust according to a partial adjustment mechanism. The model is applied to panel data of the Indonesian food and beverages industry over the period 1995–2006. The results suggest that industrial concentration has a positive effect on percentage price changes. Furthermore, the speed of price adjustment is higher when the per unit cost of production rises.     

加入世贸组织后三江平原应进行农业产业结构调整

三江平原是我国重要的商品粮食基地之一 ,经过 5 0年的开垦之后 ,需要进行产业结构调整 ,特别是加入世贸组织后要与世界农业接轨 ,结构调整势在必行。文章论述了三江平原进行农业产业结构调整的必要性、可行性 ,并提出进行结构调整的目的、内容。