On the non-emptiness of the Mas-Colell bargaining set

We introduce an extension of the Mas-Colell bargaining set and construct, by an elaboration on a voting paradox, a superadditive four-person non-transferable utility game whose extended bargaining set is empty. It is shown that this extension constitutes an upper hemicontinuous correspondence. We conclude that the Mas-Colell bargaining set of a non-levelled superadditive NTU game may be empty.     

Policy Discrimination with and without Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility

Can the Pareto criterion guide policymakers who do not know the true model of the economy? If policymakers specify ex ante preferences for agents, then Pareto improvements from a distorted status quo are usually possible, and with more commodities than states, one can implement almost every Pareto optimum. Unlike the standard second welfare theorem, planners cannot dictate allocations: agents must trade. Unfortunately ex ante preferences impose interpersonal comparisons. If policymakers merely aim to maximize some social welfare function then optimal policies form an open set; hence small changes in the environment do not necessitate any policy response. Planners with symmetric information about agents can sometimes intervene without making interpersonal comparisons.     

一种基于佳点集遗传算法的物流配送网络优化

首先根据实际问题分析了物流配送网络优化模型的各个关键组成部分,包括优化目标、决策变量和约束条件,并针对目前物流配送网络优化算法中存在的一些问题提出了一种新的算法,其核心是佳点集遗传算法。该算法编码采用prufer num ber结构,变异和交叉概率自适应选择。     

集值函数及向量值函数的两类线性算子逼近

本文得到了利用插值型线性算子列及积分型算子列逼近连续集值函数及连续向量值函数的收敛逼近阶。     

项目团队成员绩效考评研究

项目团队成员绩效考评是项目人力资源管理的关键环节之一，是整个人力资源管理的基础。科学、公正、合理的绩效考评，对团队成员的激励、薪酬、晋升都具有重要意义。引入模糊综合考评理论，在阶段性考评的基础上着眼于对项目成员进行综合绩效考评，为项目绩效考评对项目团队成员进行绩效考评提供一种思维方式。     

An optimization approach to business buyer choice sets: How many suppliers should be included?

In many new or repeat purchasing situations, business buyers must decide how many suppliers to consider (a “choice set”) in determining which supplier(s) to actually buy from or contract with. This paper develops an optimization approach to determining the size of the choice set, taking into consideration buyer utility and search and evaluation costs. A theoretical model is developed for both one-time and repeat purchase situations. The model is estimated using empirical data received from bids received for procurement auctions. In these auctions, suppliers provide bids for steel pipe based on two product attributes (price and delivery time). Model sensitivity to small changes in parameters is also tested.     

Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques

This paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for the growth of the real M2 and real M4 Divisia money series for the U.S. using monthly data. The core contention is that information on economic uncertainty improves the forecasting accuracy. We estimate vector autoregressive models using the iterated rolling-window forecasting scheme, in combination with modern regularisation techniques from the field of machine learning. Applying the Hansen-Lunde-Nason model confidence set approach under two different loss functions reveals strong evidence that uncertainty variables that are related to financial markets, the state of the macroeconomy or economic policy provide additional informational content when forecasting monetary dynamics. The use of regularisation techniques improves the forecast accuracy substantially.     

Experts,firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany

In this article, we forecast employment growth for Germany with data for the period from November 2008 to November 2015. Hutter and Weber (2015) introduced an innovative unemployment indicator and evaluated the performance of several leading indicators, including the Ifo Employment Barometer (IEB), to predict unemployment changes. Since the IEB focuses on employment growth instead of unemployment developments, we mirror the study by Hutter and Weber (2015). It turns out that in our case, and in contrast to their article, the IEB outperforms their newly developed indicator. Additionally, consumers’ unemployment expectations and hard data such as new orders exhibit a high forecasting accuracy.     

“撤县设区”能促进区域发展吗——基于浙江省1993-2013年县际面板数据的分析

本文通过对国内外学者在县（区）域经济领域十几年研究成果的梳理,整理浙江省原69（现58）个县（市）近30年经济发展的数据,对县域经济进行规模分析和产业结构分析。首次对柯布-道格拉斯生产函数模型改进,把技术增长中重要的因素,即劳动力要素的受教育程度内生化分析,并运用该模型对县域经济和＂撤县设区＂后区（以余杭市等为例）经济作对比研究,证明＂撤县设区＂的政策并没有促进区域经济的发展。     

Arrow–Debreu equilibria for rank‐dependent utilities with heterogeneous probability weighting

We study Arrow–Debreu equilibria for a one‐period‐two‐date pure exchange economy with rank‐dependent utility agents having heterogeneous probability weighting and outcome utility functions. In particular, we allow the economy to have a mix of expected utility agents and rank‐dependent utility ones, with nonconvex probability weighting functions. The standard approach for convex economy equilibria fails due to the incompatibility with second‐order stochastic dominance. The representative agent approach devised in Xia and Zhou (2016) does not work either due to the heterogeneity of the weighting functions. We overcome these difficulties by considering the comonotone allocations, on which the rank‐dependent utilities become concave. Accordingly, we introduce the notion of comonotone Pareto optima, and derive their characterizing conditions. With the aid of the auxiliary problem of price equilibria with transfers, we provide a sufficient condition in terms of the model primitives under which an Arrow–Debreu equilibrium exists, along with the explicit expression of the state‐price density in equilibrium. This new, general sufficient condition distinguishes the paper from previous related studies with homogeneous and/or convex probability weightings.