基于粗糙集的团购网站销售额影响因素分析

运用粗糙集算法,对所搜集的不确定甚至不完整的有关团购网站的信息进行推理,结论是：相对平均原价和团购种类,团购活动期数、购买人次、平均折扣率和热门城市数量对团购网站销售额的影响更重要;团购活动期数和购买人次越多,销售额越高;但平均折扣率和热门城市数量的多少对团购网站销售额的影响不大。可见,相对于价格,诚信在团购网站发展中起到更重要的决定作用;团购网站应通过团购导航网吸引更多的顾客,并实施差异化发展策略,进而以优质服务提高顾客的忠诚度。     

The differences in hotel selection among various types of travellers: A comparative analysis with a useful bounded rationality behavioural decision support model

This study aims to investigate the hotel selection differences among different types of travellers through online hotel reviews. Specifically, the study performs a detailed examination of the differences in hotel key factors, criterion importance and selection results among five types of travellers, namely, business, couples, families, friends and solo. Using a sample of 194,885 online reviews on TripAdvisor.com, this study identifies the hotel key factors and criterion importance by employing the term frequency-inverse document frequency algorithm and Word2Vec algorithm. Additionally, a bounded rationality behavioural decision support model with picture fuzzy information is proposed to address hotel selection problems for different traveller types. Our results suggest that different types of travellers present differences in hotel key factors, criterion importance and selection results. However, families and friends have similar hotel selection results. This study can serve as a reference for hotel managers in understanding traveller preferences and for tourism website optimisation.     

Forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall with mixed data sampling

I propose applying the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES). The new methods exploit the serial dependence on short-horizon returns to directly forecast the tail dynamics of the desired horizon. I perform a comprehensive comparison of out-of-sample VaR and ES forecasts with established models for a wide range of financial assets and backtests. The MIDAS-based models significantly outperform traditional GARCH-based forecasts and alternative conditional quantile specifications, especially in terms of multi-day forecast horizons. My analysis advocates models that feature asymmetric conditional quantiles and the use of the Asymmetric Laplace density to jointly estimate VaR and ES.     

A supplier evaluation model based on customer demand in blockchain tracing anti-counterfeiting platform project management

This study assesses supplier selection at the beginning of project management to establish an evaluation system corresponding to blockchain tracing anti-counterfeiting platforms (BTAP). First, this paper determines 20 evaluation criteria from the four dimensions of platform overview, core technology, application support, and operations management. On this basis, multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) based on customer needs is proposed, which consists of three main steps. First, quality function deployment (QFD) and the best and worst method (BWM) are used to evaluate the four dimensions of the BTAP and specific evaluation criteria from the perspective of customers to obtain the criteria weight. Then, this method uses the extended Vlse Kriterjumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) approach to sort the alternatives. Finally, the improved decision making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is used to analyse the relationships between the 20 criteria in the four dimensions. The feasibility and effectiveness of this method are verified by an example. According to the sensitivity analysis and comparative analysis, the results show that this method can evaluate blockchain anti-counterfeiting enterprises. The main conclusions are as follows: the core technology is the most important factor influencing the choice of a BTAP project, and the role of application support in evaluation cannot be ignored.     

基于可变模糊方法的乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价的集对分析

为解决乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价问题,构建了包含粮食安全受威胁程度、收益分配不公平程度、土地利用结构失衡程度、乡村生态破坏程度以及乡村特色消失程度的乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价指标体系,提出乡村土地旅游化流转风险评价的集对分析—可变模糊模型与方法。首先,基于集对模糊联系度构造可变模糊集理论的相对差异度,进而建立集对分析—可变模糊综合评价模型;然后,结合风险分级特征值运用二元语义方法确定乡村土地旅游化流转风险级别;最后,以泉州市乡村旅游目的地为例进行了实例计算。研究结果表明,所建立的集对分析—可变模糊评价模型与方法不但能够定量辨别乡村旅游地土地旅游化流转的风险等级,而且能够区分同一风险等级下的不同风险大小。     

西方社会土地产权的构成、演化与启示

西方社会将土地产权分为权能和客体两方面,并进行科学精准地界定、重组,以实现土地产权在政府管理层面与个人使用层面的均衡分配。人工不透水层作为承载社会经济发展用地类型的覆被类型,随着西方社会生态保护意识的增强而处于规划和管制当中,具体反映在土地产权主体占有地块内的建筑密度、容积率等控制指标。而土地用途分类和土地覆被分类作为土地产权的实体化反映,则构成以经济价值为维度的土地发展权的尺度性特征,实现了政府宏观管理与个体微观利用的兼容性。对我国土地产权管理的建议：土地管理应由强调土地所有制向构建土地利用管制制度转变;科学界定土地产权,转变政府职能,推动我国土地管理向民生化、微观化、精准化方向发展。     

家庭农场退出诱发的利益冲突与化解策略研究

研究目的:借助埃奇沃斯盒状图阐述家庭农场退出的"帕累托改进"过程,深入分析家庭农场退出可能诱发不同主体间的利益冲突以及应对策略,为家庭农场的合理有序退出提供理论支撑。研究方法:经济学交换的一般均衡分析法、理论分析法、文献梳理法、综合分析法。研究结果:在家庭农场退出时,会在家庭农场主、农户、债权人、集体经济组织、家庭农场的其他成员等主体之间围绕土地合同违约、债务清偿次序、债务承担比例、资产处置等问题诱发激烈的矛盾冲突,这些问题的妥善解决对于构建家庭农场的合理有序退出机制、盘活退出家庭农场的整体资产、维护退出家庭农场主和债权人的合法权益都具有重要意义。研究结论:家庭农场退出所诱发的不同主体间的利益冲突应当依据法律政策、土地流转合同等科学合理地加以解决。对于家庭农场退出的资产采取整体转让、转租、托管经营等方式处理;明确家庭农场退出需要承担的法律责任,参照相关法律政策,明确家庭农场退出的债务偿还规则;明确集体经济组织在家庭农场退出时的职能定位;通过制定内部规章制度明晰家庭农场成员间的"权责利"关系格局。     

基于ANP-PP-SPA的区域洪灾风险评价模型研究

针对现有洪灾风险评价模型的缺陷与不足,从致灾因子、孕灾因子、承灾因子和减灾因子4个方面,通过对14项评价指标的分析与计算,构建洪灾风险评价体系。洪灾风险评价体系以网络层次分析法(ANP)求解主观权重,投影寻踪法(PP)求解客观权重,主客观综合权重与集对分析理论(SPA)耦合,构建基于ANP-PP-SPA的洪灾风险评价模型。以广东省英德市为例,验证洪灾风险评价模型的适用性。计算结果表明,英德市2016年的洪灾风险属于中等级别,符合英德市2016年的实际情况。洪灾风险评价模型不仅综合考虑了评价指标间的相互关系,还较好地体现了洪灾风险的模糊性和随机性,能够为区域洪灾风险决策和洪水管理提供科学依据。     

基于模糊概念的可疑金融交易量化关联规则研究

从模糊集的基本理论入手,通过定义模糊概念软化属性域的划分边界,提出了一种新的基于模糊概念的量化关联规则方法.本方法克服了因划分区间而造成数据缺失的不足.最后通过将某市2004年的实际数据运用到建立的算法中,验证算法的有效性,为有效开展可疑金融交易识别提供了有益的参考.     

产学研协同创新成本分摊机制研究

产学研协同创新是推动技术创新的一条重要路径,但创新成本分摊机制是影响产学研协同合作的一个重要问题。通过构建充分竞争市场下的多阶段博弈模型,从成本分摊机制角度探究了如何有效推进产学研协同创新。通过模型扩展与求解,获得成本分摊后的帕累托改善以及产学研协同创新的可行路径。结果表明：企业和学研方基于自身收益最大化而进行的成本分摊协商无法实现帕累托最优,而轮流出价博弈模型下的成本分摊形成机制能够有效改善各方收益,并使整体收益达到帕累托最优,因此是一条现实可行的帕累托改善路径,其中,各方获得的收益增量与耐心程度的对比有关。