Is it the economic policy,stupid? Economic policy,political parties & the gubernatorial incumbent advantage

Incumbent politicians have a well-known advantage in seeking re-election. Using the Economic Freedom of North America dataset, we examine how changes in economic policy during an incumbent governor's tenure influence the probability of losing their re-election bid. Put simply, does economic policy matter for the incumbent advantage? The results suggest that a decrease in economic freedom increases the probability of an incumbent loss, regardless of the governor's party. A decomposition analysis indicates that these results are primarily driven by the government spending sub-index. Furthermore, a more granular analysis suggests that: (1) increases in government consumption spending and government employment are associated with a lower probability of re-election among Democratic incumbent governors, but a higher probability among Republicans; (2) increases in transfer payments relative to personal income reduce the likelihood of re-election, regardless of party; and (3) among Republican incumbents, increases of income taxation and of top marginal tax rates are associated with a higher and lower, respectively, probability of losing re-election. Finally, controlling for a variety of demographic, political and socioeconomic factors, we find that high unemployment increases the probability that an incumbent loses re-election, while increasing net population migration reduces it.     

人口老龄化会导致中国劳动力就业极化吗？

基于我国2000—2021年的省级及八大综合经济区的面板数据,实证检验人口老龄化对劳动力就业结构的极化效应。研究发现：人口老龄化促进低、高技能劳动力就业比重提高,同时降低中等技能劳动力就业比重,导致劳动力就业结构整体上呈现“两端极化”特征,且这一调整过程随着老龄化加剧呈现倒U形趋势。分八大综合经济区来看,东部沿海经济区的老龄化对劳动力就业结构的影响方向与全国样本一致且更敏感;南部经济区的老龄化促进高技能劳动力就业呈“单向极化”特征;大西南经济区的老龄化促进低技能劳动就业呈“单向极化”特征。进一步门槛检验发现,随着人均收入水平的提高,老龄化对劳动力就业“两端极化”效应存在明显的双重门槛特征,且表现出增益效果。     

Dynamics of group grievances from a global cohesion perspective

Grievances are vulnerable to state development and harmony; however, some factors provoke the masses and groups to vulnerability and state fragility (SF) by disturbing social cohesion. Under the grievance assumptions on the political process, this study has been designed to gauge the nexus of group grievances (GG), an essential parameter of social cohesion, institutional governance (IG), government legitimacy (GL), economic growth (EcG), and population growth (POPG) from the global perspective from 2008 to 2022 in a global panel of 158 countries considering the critical aspect of SF. The statistics reveal that PS is essential in controlling and managing the GG in the state. PS is the most significant factor in harmonizing the state's ethnic minorities, focus, and religious groups with stable policies and their grievances issues. It also states that apart from PS, another aspect of IG, Control of Corruption (CoC), helps mitigate malpractices and provides a transparent environment supporting grievances. It further demonstrates that EcG provokes grievances instead of lessening them among the key groups in the state, especially in the processing of industrialization. Because of the government's partiality to provide benefits to specific groups or sectors, that partiality and injustice hype the grievances among the public. Moreover, POPG is also a significant factor in increasing GG, along with government illegitimacy and untrust. The study concludes that to make the country agile and prosperous, the government should balance developing industrialization without compromising agricultural and domestic industries. It helps states gain public trust in the IG framework and GL. The government should harmonize its policies by tackling all minorities, ethnic, and religious groups coherently to maintain social cohesion in the country. Finally, One of the significant factors in natural resources and the scarcity of global resources is population. It stated that prudent population control measures better assist in resource scarcity and conflict management, such as in EU countries compared to Asia and Africa. Recent grievance movements in Brazil, China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the US, are the practical application of this study because these countries fall in the list of the top 10 most populous countries. So, population control policies should be effectively implemented to support economic and social parity and mitigate GG.     

综合国家距离对中国入境旅游的影响——基于CAGE距离框架的实证研究

入境旅游在旅游发展中具有重要战略地位,而我国入境旅游发展相对滞后,甚至影响到我国服务贸易的高质量发展。旅游具有异地性特征,现有研究往往从文化距离、行政距离、地理距离或经济距离等单一距离开展研究。然而,多种距离同时影响游客决策,单一距离模型降低了距离因素的解释力,同时纳入模型又会造成共线性问题,导致现有研究结论间存在矛盾,阻碍理论发展与应用。Ghemawat提出的国家距离框架基于多种距离形成评价总体国家距离的综合国家距离,得到普遍认可。文章基于国家距离框架,整合来自世界银行数据库、霍夫斯泰德文化维度官方数据、双边地理距离数据库、世界经济论坛等相关数据,形成2006—2018年我国55个客源国入境旅游的平衡面板数据,系统分析了综合国家距离对入境游客量的主效应、非线性影响,以及客源国互联网使用率的调节作用,得到如下结论:(1)综合国家距离是影响我国入境游客量的显著变量,距离对入境游的影响是文化距离、行政距离、地理距离和经济距离的复合效应;(2)综合国家距离与入境游客量之间呈正U形关系,综合国家距离可以是入境旅游的阻碍因素,也可以是促进因素,入境游客量随着综合国家距离增加而先减少后增加;(3)客源国互联网使用率没有弱化综合国家距离的影响,反而产生极化作用,极化了综合国家距离在拐点左侧的负影响和在拐点右侧的正影响。以上发现的主要价值为:(1)增进了对距离因素在国际旅游中作用的理解,提出影响入境游客量的综合国家距离变量;(2)识别出综合国家距离与入境游客量呈现正U形关系,证实综合国家距离是细分客源国市场的新变量;(3)揭示出客源国互联网使用率对综合国家距离产生的极化效应,突出了我国采用互联网传播目的地形象的必要性和重要性。     

Using Travel brochures to Target Frequent Travellers and ”Big-Spenders”

Travel brochures are used throughout the industry to promote virtually all tourist destinations. This study examines how regional travelers request and use this material, specifically focusing on the relationships between brochure use and propensity to travel and travel expenditures. The results from a mail survey of 276 marginally related to high conversions, yet those marketing destinations can distinguish between how brochures are used and travel propensity and travel expenditures.     

The tourism and peace nexus

Tourism has been heralded as a contributor to peace, however, the inconclusive findings of empirical studies render the need for a consolidation of theory that has in so far relied on case studies and the adoption of the contact hypothesis. Informed by political science theory, this paper proposes a methodological framework that can guide future research and aims to serve as a benchmark for researchers interested in temporal issues pertaining to conflict, peace and tourism. Signalling a departure from the simplistic notion that contact through travel contributes to social integration, the paper adopts a holistic conceptualisation of the multi-faceted and complex system of actors, sectors and dimensions of tourism spanning at the social, economic, political and environmental levels.     

“I will never go to Hong Kong again!” How the secondary crisis communication of “Occupy Central” on Weibo shifted to a tourism boycott

Social media, an open space for the public's opinion and expression, has become an increasingly essential issue in crisis events, leading to secondary crisis communication. Realizing the potential risk of that, this study took the “Occupy Central” spreading on Weibo as a case, and applied topic clustering and sentiment analysis to examine the sequential characteristics of secondary crisis communication on social media in topics and emotions. Results show that the topics Weibo users discussed shifted from a political event to tourism boycott, with emotions turning increasingly negative. The turning point of such a transfer was aroused group conflicts and negative emotions elicited between people from mainland China and Hong Kong. The results indicate the necessity of emphasizing secondary crisis communication during a crisis due to the dynamic and sequential change of topics and public's emotions, which may result in new crises impacting the tourism destination where the initial crisis occurs.     

Who cares about the environment? An empirical analysis of the evolution of political parties’ environmental concern in European countries (1970–2008)

Why do parties offer environmental policies in their political programs? While a number of papers examine the determinants of citizens’ pro-environmental behaviour, we know little about the extent to which political parties adjust their platform towards environmentalism. We investigate this process through data provided by the Manifesto Project Dataset (CMP) for 20 European countries over the period 1970-2008. Following the literature on public concern towards environment, we examine economic, environmental and political determinants. Our findings provide evidence that political parties’ environmental concern is strongly correlated with their political ideology and with country-level economic conditions.     

青川候家村硫铁矿高精度磁测与激电勘探研究

通过高精度磁测和幅频激电探测两种方法对松林坪硫铁矿区进行了实地探测,进而了解了该矿区硫铁矿的分布及储量,为今后在该矿区的进一步工作奠定了基础。