Forecasting turning points in tourism growth

Tourism demand exhibits growth cycles, and it is important to forecast turning points in these growth cycles to minimise risks to destination management. This study estimates logistic models of Hong Kong tourism demand, which are then used to generate both short- and long-term forecasts of tourism growth. The performance of the models is evaluated using the quadratic probability score and hit rates. The results show that the ways in which this information is used are crucial to the models’ predictive power. Further, we investigate whether combining probability forecasts can improve predictive accuracy, and find that combination approaches, especially nonlinear combination approaches, are sensitive to the quality of forecasts in the pool. In addition, model screening can improve forecasting performance.     

Local poverty reduction in Chile and Mexico: The role of food manufacturing growth

This paper analyzes the relationship between local poverty and food manufacturing growth in Chile and Mexico using propensity score matching, differences in differences and spatial econometrics methods. We focus on food manufacturing as a sector with a number of characteristics that make it potentially pro-poor, and whose incentives for spatial distribution may either strengthen or dampen its poverty reduction potential. The overall results indicate growth in food manufacturing employment contributes to local poverty reduction.     

Gains from horizontal collaboration among ski areas

Ski areas are known to expand by linking their lifts to neighbouring systems. Based on data from approximately 250 winter sport destinations in Austria, pooled over the years 1998–2014, this study explores the effects of such horizontal collaboration on the number of overnights stays in the area. A difference-in-differences (DID) approach combined with propensity score matching shows that new lift-linkages or expansions lead to a consolidation in the number of overnight stays at a level 12 per cent higher than before the introduction of the lift-link. However, there is a certain degree of heterogeneity in the causal effects. Satellite ski areas, remote villages and those who combine lift-linking with new connecting slopes benefit the most. More recent lift-linkages seem to lead to smaller gains than those established in the early years.     

Milk sales and dietary diversity among the Maasai

In Maasai culture, responsibilities are traditionally divided between genders. Men are in charge of grazing and managing the livestock herds. Women take care of the family, administer food supplies, and are responsible for milking. For them, balancing home consumption of milk (for the family and for the calves), milk sale, and food purchase is a major task. In this article, we first investigate how different milk sales groups vary regarding the use of different food items and the respective quantities consumed by the enkaji, i.e., a Maasai subhousehold. Then, we address the commercialization decision and assess the effect of milk sales on the enkaji's food item use and food consumption. Using the data of Maasai enkajijik in the milk catchment area of a milk collection center in Ngerengere, Tanzania, we estimate the effects by employing propensity score matching procedures. Our findings suggest that milk sellers, especially those selling to the milk collection center, have a more diverse diet. In terms of per person consumption, the groups are markedly similar. Therefore, we conclude that income generated by milk sales is invested in diet diversification rather than in increasing the quantity of food consumed, hence the enkajijik appear not to make use of caloric terms of trade.     

The impact of minimum wages on employment of low‐wage workers

This study provides empirical evidence on the impact of a minimum wage increase on employment of workers in the formal sector who have wages below the minimum level in Vietnam. Using the difference‐in‐differences with propensity score matching and the Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys of 2004 and 2006, the article finds that the minimum wage increase in 2005 reduced the proportion of workers having a formal sector job among low‐wage workers. Most workers who lost formal sector jobs became self‐employed.     

Two-dimensional analysis of the impact of outward FDI on performance at home: Evidence from Japanese manufacturing firms

This paper empirically investigates two dimensions of changes in firm behavior and performance before and after foreign direct investment (FDI). The first dimension is the difference between vertical and horizontal FDI. The second dimension is the effect of outward FDI on firms’ production and non-production activities in the home country. In our careful empirical analysis we use the propensity score matching method to show that the impact of outward FDI differs by dimension, that is, by FDI type and firms’ production and non-production activities. In particular, while horizontal FDI increases demand for non-production workers, vertical FDI increases demand for skilled production workers.     

Can Poverty be Alleviated in China?

The 2000s witnessed the third poverty alleviation wave in China. Compared with its predecessors, the third wave distinguished itself by new interventions and redefined standards for the National Poor Counties. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the new program using a data set consisting of 1,411 of China's western and central counties from 2000 to 2010. It combines the propensity score matching method with the difference‐in‐differences approach, which helps to avoid selection bias and track the policy impact on variables of interest at each time point. It is found that the non‐western local governments tended to manipulate data on income and output growth to maintain the special transfer payments disbursed exclusively to the National Poor Counties. It is also shown that the program failed to improve the infrastructure and sanitary conditions in general.     

Supply Chain Management Competency and Firm Financial Success

Supply chain management (SCM) plays a major role in creating (or destroying) shareholder value by influencing the three major drivers of firm financial performance: revenue, operating costs, and working capital. Yet, the relationship between SCM competency and firm financial performance is not well‐established. Drawing on the resource‐based view of the firm, this study assesses this relationship using Delphi‐style opinion data from AMR Research’s Supply Chain Top 25 rankings to assess SCM competency and Altman’s (1968) Z‐score statistic as the measure of financial success. The study findings show that firms recognized by industry experts for SCM competency have significantly higher Z‐scores than their close competitors and industry averages.     

绩效评估的研究取向概述

当前的绩效评估研究主要有三种主流取向,即个人差异观点、情景观点和绩效管理观点。这三种思路的关系并不是孤立的,它们之间存在着联系,实际应用过程中,往往是结合其中的两种甚至三种观点展开研究的。以后的研究中应该在组织绩效研究、绩效概念的科学界定、基于胜任特征的绩效研究、以及结合平衡记分卡的绩效研究等方面继续展开。