This paper models a mechanism through which population ageing may induce a deflationary process. We propose an overlapping-generations model (OLG) with money created by credits (inside money) and intergenerational trade. The model links demographic factors, such as fertility rates and longevity, to prices. We show that lower fertility rates lead to smaller demand for credit and lower money creation, which in turn cause a decline in prices. Changes in longevity affect prices through real savings and the capital market. Furthermore, a few links between interest rates and inflation are addressed; they arise in the general equilibrium and are not thoroughly discussed in literature. Long-run results are derived analytically; short-run dynamics are simulated numerically. 相似文献
This paper decomposes the growth in land occupied by residences in the United States to give the relative contributions of changing demographics versus changes in residential land per household. Between 1976 and 1992 the amount of residential land in the United States grew 47.7% while population only grew 17.8%. At first glance, this suggest an important role for per-household increases. However, the calculations in this paper show that only 24.5% of the growth in residential land area can be attributed to state-level changes in land per household. 37.3% is due to overall population growth, 22.6% to an increase in the number of households over this period, 6% to the shift of population towards states with larger houses, and the remaining 9.6% to interactions between these changes. There are large differences across states and metropolitan areas in the relative importance of these components. 相似文献
We examine whether the aggregate demand curve for stocks is downward sloping. As a proxy for aggregate demand, we use net outflows (dividends plus repurchases less net issues) from the stock market scaled by the previous year's market capitalization. To disentangle the information and price pressure effects from the demand curve effects, we use an information-free demographic variable as an instrument and look at the relation between annual changes in aggregate demand and excess market return. We find that information-free changes in the annual aggregate demand for stocks do not lead to changes in the annual excess market return. This finding supports long-term horizontal demand curves for stocks. 相似文献
Do jobs follow people or people follow jobs? A meta-analysis of Carlino–Mills studies. Spatial Economic Analysis. This study examines the classic question as to whether ‘jobs follow people’ or ‘people follow jobs’ by performing a meta-analysis of 321 results from 64 Carlino–Mills studies. It is found that the results are highly divergent, but that more results point towards ‘jobs following people’ than towards ‘people following jobs’. When it comes to the reasons for the variation in results, we find that the results are mostly shaped by the geographical location, spatial resolution, and population and employment characteristics present in the data, as well as by the model’s specification, its functional form and the spatial weight matrix specification. 相似文献
Objective: Inter-regional comparison of health-reform outcomes in south-eastern Europe (SEE).
Methods: Macro-indicators were obtained from the WHO Health for All Database. Inter-regional comparison among post-Semashko, former Yugoslavia, and prior-1989-free-market SEE economies was conducted.
Results: United Nations Development Program Human Development Index growth was strongest among prior-free-market SEE, followed by former Yugoslavia and post-Semashko. Policy cuts to hospital beds and nursing-staff capacities were highest in post-Semashko. Physician density increased the most in prior-free-market SEE. Length of hospital stay was reduced in most countries; frequency of outpatient visits and inpatient discharges doubled in prior-free-market SEE. Fertility rates fell for one third in Post-Semashko and prior-free-market SEE. Crude death rates slightly decreased in prior-free-market-SEE and post-Semashko, while growing in the former Yugoslavia region. Life expectancy increased by 4 years on average in all regions; prior-free-market SEE achieving the highest longevity. Childhood and maternal mortality rates decreased throughout SEE, while post-Semashko countries recorded the most progress.
Conclusions: Significant differences in healthcare resources and outcomes were observed among three historical health-policy legacies in south-eastern Europe. These different routes towards common goals created a golden opportunity for these economies to learn from each other. 相似文献