中国人口城镇化的省级行政单元差异分析

基于周一星修正的1982—2000年城镇化数据和2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,本文依据所构建的人口城镇化贡献模型,以省级行政单元为基本研究对象,考察了1982—2005年研究期内不同时段省级行政单元的人口城镇化差异变动情况。主要从城镇人口的相对增长指数和城镇人口增长的贡献率这两个方面来分析各省级行政单元的城镇化差异,按时段将之落实到地图上,并将所有的省级行政单元划分成三个类型,然后将其对应于人口城镇化进程的四个阶段。最后,简单地说明了各省级行政单元在人口城镇化进程中四种类型的转换过程或阶段转变。     

Patterns of growth in Chinese cities: Implications of the land lease

A special feature of China’s housing market is land use rights in the form of land leasehold contracts granted by the government. We consider an equilibrium model in which a representative developer may choose to redevelop existing centrally located housing or to develop new housing at the periphery of the city. We show that as the city grows, the land leasehold system results in the city center being developed less intensely and more land being used on the outskirts of the city when compared to a fee simple environment. Thus, cities in China are likely to be relatively more spread out, with city centers relatively older than would be the case with “fee simple” ownership. Our model suggests that excess residential land use is about 6 percent. In addition, compared with the ownership case, housing supply will grow more quickly in the near future, but more slowly later on during the transition of the Chinese economy. Parallel to the supply growth pattern, equilibrium price grows relative slowly in the near future, but more quickly later on. While we focus on residential uses, we believe our model can be applied to other land uses.     

Spatial welfare economics versus ecological footprint: modeling agglomeration,externalities and trade

A welfare framework for the analysis of the spatial dimensions of sustainability is developed. It covers agglomeration effects, interregional trade, negative environmental externalities, and various land use categories. The model is used to compare rankings of spatial configurations according to evaluations based on social welfare and ecological footprint indicators. Five spatial configurations are considered for this purpose. The exercise is operationalized with the help of a two-region model of the economy, that is, in line with the ‘new economic geography.’ By generating a number of numerical ‘counter-examples,’ it is shown that the footprint method is inconsistent with an approach aimed at maximum social welfare. Unless environmental externalities are such a large problem that they overwhelm all other components of economic well-being, a ‘spatial welfare economic’ approach delivers totally different rankings of alternative land use configurations than the ecological footprint.      

我国企业年金税惠政策的成本和收益精算评估

企业年金个人所得税递延政策于2014年1月1日开始实施,政策调整必然会带来相应的成本和收益。基于我国特殊的人口结构状况,本文通过建立精算模型进行模拟,具体分析税惠政策的实施在未来50年内的成本和收益,并运用成本收益比和覆盖率两个变量进行评价。模拟结果发现：若税惠政策能够促进企业年金发展,使得覆盖率增加,成本收益比会逐渐在16%~17%的水平保持稳定。本文进一步研究了延迟退休政策和死亡率变化对税惠成本和收益的影响。     

Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation

This paper models a mechanism through which population ageing may induce a deflationary process. We propose an overlapping-generations model (OLG) with money created by credits (inside money) and intergenerational trade. The model links demographic factors, such as fertility rates and longevity, to prices. We show that lower fertility rates lead to smaller demand for credit and lower money creation, which in turn cause a decline in prices. Changes in longevity affect prices through real savings and the capital market. Furthermore, a few links between interest rates and inflation are addressed; they arise in the general equilibrium and are not thoroughly discussed in literature. Long-run results are derived analytically; short-run dynamics are simulated numerically.     

人口流动性、公共收入与支出--户籍制度变迁动因分析

本文分析了人口流动性的内生决定 ,以此解释中国户籍管理政策变迁的动因。文章表明 ,分权框架下的区际竞争将推动政府降低人口流动成本。一般而言 ,集权 ①框架下的最优流动性水平普遍低于分权框架下的流动性水平。与我国近 2 0年来户籍政策变化相一致的是 ,跨区劳动力配置需求的上升增加了户籍管制的效率损失成本 ,将推动人口流动成本下降。我们认为 ,除了协调地方公共品供给外部性、限制地区间税收竞争以最大化税收收入这两个基本原因之外 ,我国户籍管制的另一个特殊原因是便于执行地区差别政策。而设置流动成本的效率性取决于政府目标与社会福利最大化的一致性程度。     

证券支持黑龙江、吉林两省西部地区农业机械合作社建立的可行性分析

随着我国人口红利逐年下降和城镇化进程不断加快,中国农村地区农业人口老龄化问题日渐突出,如不及时解决农村劳动力缺失的问题,十年之后中国粮食安全将难以保障。农业生产机械化是我国农业升级最为基础的部分,其高效的生产力可有效补充中国农村出现的劳动力缺口。但是我国耕地所属散乱,极不利于大型农机作业,只有将各户土地集中使用,才能解决我国农业生产机械化最棘手的问题。本文以东北西部地区为样本剖析农业机械化生产的收益构成,研究农村合并耕地成立农业机械合作社的可行性。本文借鉴国内外较为成熟的证券化理论,结合东北地区实际情况,首创的提出利用证券市场加速我国农业升级的构想。