日化产业的五力模型分析——以上海家化为例

日化产业是一个与居民生活息息相关的产业,但在中国市场上却是外资品牌占主要地位。为了更好的促进本土日化产业的发展,以上海家化为例,本文应用波特五力模型,从现有竞争者、买方议价能力、供应商议价能力、替代产品的威胁和潜在进入者威胁这五个方面分析中国日化产业的行业环境,找到本土日化产业发展的不足,并且提出相关政策建议。     

Testing the Martingale Difference Hypothesis (MDH) with Structural Breaks: Evidence from Foreign Exchanges of Nigeria and South Africa

ABSTRACT

This study tests for MDH in two prominent foreign exchange (FX) markets in Africa, Nigeria and South Africa using three benchmark currencies (euro, dollar and pound sterling). Data utilized cover time series closing rate data set of five-day weekly frequency spanning December 14, 2001 to September 26, 2014. The study considers both the linear and nonlinear measures for MDH with better size and power properties. We also capture structural break endogenously from the data stream using Perron (2006) unit root test with structural break. Three striking findings are discernible from our analyses. First, on average, the South African FX market appears to be more efficient than the Nigerian FX market. Thus, the latter may be more susceptible to speculations than the former. Second, ignoring significant structural breaks may render statistical inferences invalid. Third, the choice of methodology does matter when testing for MDH of foreign exchanges in Africa.     

Commodity index investment and food prices: does the “Masters Hypothesis” explain recent price spikes?

The “Masters Hypothesis” is the claim that unprecedented buying pressure in recent years from commodity index investors created massive bubbles in food and energy prices. The purpose of this article is to review the evidence from recent studies that investigate the empirical relationship between index investment and price movements in agricultural futures markets. One line of research uses time‐series regression tests, such as Granger causality tests, to investigate the relationship between price movements and index positions. This research provides little evidence in support of the Masters Hypothesis in agricultural futures markets. A second line of research uses cross‐sectional regression tests and studies in this area provide very limited evidence in favor of the Masters Hypothesis for agricultural futures markets. A third line of research investigates whether there is a significant relationship between commodity index trading and the difference, or spread, between futures prices of different contract maturities on the same date. These studies report a range of results depending on the type of test. However, the bulk of the evidence indicates either no relationship or a negative relationship, which is once again inconsistent with the Masters Hypothesis. Overall, this growing body of literature fails to find compelling evidence that buying pressure from commodity index investment in recent years caused a massive bubble in agricultural futures prices. The Masters Hypothesis is simply not a valid characterization of reality.     

中国第三产业增加值增长与环境规制

近年来,中国第三产业增加值发展速度不断下降,比起2008年左右的高速增长,现在中国第三产业正处在低速发展的阶段,研究当前中国第三产业发展情况对于我国经济发展具有重大意义。论文结合当前中国环境保护力度不断加大这一情况,从波特假说和环境经济学理论出发,探究环境规制强度对中国服务业增加值的影响。研究结果显示,在中国经济发展当前阶段,环境规制强度的加深对第三产业增加值增长呈抑制作用,同时这种影响呈正U型。     

“准心理学自利主义”与社会主义市场经济

结合当代西方规范伦理学理论、古典经济学的市场经济理论和马克思主义理论,对现阶段的人性假设做一个基本判断:人们在采取行动的时候更容易为自己的利益而不是为他人利益所打动,笔者把它称作"准心理学自利主义"。这种人性假设是对人的心理特征的一种事实假定,而非主张利己主义的伦理规范。这种人性假设与亚当.斯密的"无形之手"具有相似性,与马克思关于社会主义个人与社会关系论述也具有一致性,但它不是极端的利己主义,而是有限制地发展个人利益,是既体现效率又倡导公正的人性假设。它是我们制定社会主义市场经济的实然基础,我国的社会主义市场经济是符合这种人性的"无形之手"和"有形之手"有机结合的科学社会主义。     

绩效考核的失真因素分析

绩效考核的目的在于择优察劣,保持组织的高效,但是一旦绩效考核的结果失真,不仅会影响到员工的积极性和满意度,也会使组织的利益受损。本文主要针对影响考核结果的因素进行了分析,并对如何防范这些因素提出了几点建议。     

我国经济发展与环境污染空间分布关系的实证检验

本文提出了一种新的分析重心移动的方法,即根据区域属性值的特征量来分析重心移动。本文应用这种方法,对1985年至2009年期间我国环境污染重心移动的轨迹、原因及影响因素进行了理论与实证分析。研究结果发现：我国环境污染重心与相应污染变量、环境污染影响因素的总量和方差之间存在显著影响关系,而与相应污染变量、环境污染影响因素的变化速度之间的影响关系不显著。本文的研究结论对于有效管理我国环境污染、提升经济发展质量具有重要的意义。     

是什么导致了“污染天堂”:贸易还是FDI?——来自中国省级面板数据的证据

本文利用1999-2008年中国省级面板数据,应用新近发展的面板向量自回归模型,研究FDI、贸易和环境规制之间的互动关系。结果发现,污染天堂假说在中国基本成立,而导致中国环境压力增大的最主要因素,并非是外商直接投资,而是自由贸易。这个结论有力地支持了西方污染中国的命题。进一步分析还发现,环境规制与对外贸易存在非对称的互动关系:环境规制对对外贸易存在显著负面影响,证实了污染天堂效应的存在;但反过来,对外贸易在一定程度上有利于环境治理努力的增强。最后本文选择多种环境规制指标和划分东、中、西部子样本的方法进行稳健性分析,证实了结论的可靠性。     

基于波特钻石理论的秦皇岛市旅游业竞争优势分析

迈克尔.波特教授提出的"钻石理论"是竞争力分析的有力工具,根据"钻石理论",从生产要素、需求条件、相关支持产业和建筑企业的竞争状况等四方面深入分析了秦皇岛市旅游业的竞争优势,上述竞争优势将为做大做强秦皇岛市旅游业提供良好的平台。     

The Effects of Fraud Risk and Management Representation on Auditors' Hypothesis Generation

Hypothesis generation is considered to be critical to the effectiveness and efficiency of diagnostic processes in auditing. Using a between-subjects experimental design, this work examines the impact of fraud risk and the availability of a non-misstatement management explanation on auditors' hypothesis generation performance. The context is when managers undertake analytical procedures at the planning stage of the audit. The results indicate that auditors are sensitive to increased fraud risk by generating more fraud hypotheses, while the number of misstatement hypotheses generated is not affected by fraud risk. The availability of a non-misstatement management explanation was found not to interfere with auditors' hypothesis generation performance, but facilitated the generation of proportionately more misstatement and fraud hypotheses from the same transaction cycle as that indicated by the management explanation. Together, these findings provide some insights on the sensitivity of auditors' hypothesis generation to fraud risk and whether this sensitivity could be undermined by the availability of management representations.