Whether to Abolish or Introduce Dual Regulation as Trade and Environmental Policy?

China, which has already introduced an environmental tax in an effort to decarbonize, has recently begun emissions trading and is using two environmental policies in tandem, but there are concerns about the impact on growth and trade. Trade and environmental policies affect firms' entry and exit, resulting in changes in aggregate productivity and pollution emissions. This study compares the impacts of single regulation and dual regulation on welfare, using a research-and-development based growth model with heterogeneous firms. Under single regulation, the cleansing effect of trade liberalization could be undermined. Under dual regulation, trade liberalization decreases pollution and improves average productivity whereas decreasing total permits reduces pollution. From the perspective of improving welfare it is desirable to choose dual regulation because trade liberalization can reduce total pollution emissions via the cleansing effect of trade liberalization.     

Decentralized environmental regulations and plant‐level productivity

Using the framework provided by the Porter hypothesis, we study the impact of environmental regulations and enforcement policies on plant‐level green total factor productivity (TFP) growth and its components related to efficiency change and technical change. The detailed microdata we use are from Sweden and for the pulp and paper industry. This industry is the source of significant amounts of water and air pollution and is one of the most heavily environmentally regulated manufacturing industries. Sweden has a unique decentralized regulatory structure where the manufacturing plants have to comply with plant‐specific regulatory standards stipulated at the national level, as well as decentralized local supervision and enforcement. Our empirical results point to beneficial impacts of the environmental policies on plants' green TFP growth and sustainable production practices. We also find that political economy considerations are important, as the presence of the Green Party and aspects like plant size (with corresponding local and regional economic effects) matter in enforcement of the standards.     

Environmental regulations and industrial competitiveness: evidence from China

Economic activities are closely related to real-world environmental issues. Currently, more attention is paid to the association between environmental regulations and industrial competitiveness (IC) because of pressures on economic development and environmental protection. In this study, we identify and explain the association between environmental regulations and IC in China. As the largest developing country in the world, China has the unavoidable responsibility of protecting the environment and promoting global economic development. We analyse the mechanisms behind environmental regulations and industrial competiveness at the provincial level and conclude that the impact of environmental regulations upon IC is not a simple linear one, but a U-shaped relationship. It is argued that the crucial intervention to activate the U-shaped relationship, or Porter’s Hypothesis, is innovation, which can be triggered by stringent regulations and well-designed policies.     

A Note on the Interdependence between Hypothesis Generation and Information Search in Conducting Analytical Procedures*

This study examines the linkage among the initial hypothesis set, the information search, and decision performance in performing analytical procedures. We manipulated the quality of the initial hypothesis set and the quality of the information search to investigate the extent to which deficiencies (or benefits) in either process can be remedied (or negated) by the other phase. The hypothesis set manipulation entailed inheriting a correct hypothesis set, inheriting an incorrect hypothesis set, or generating a hypothesis set. The information search was manipulated by providing a balanced evidence set to auditors (i.e., evidence on a range of likely causes including the actual cause ‐ analogous to a standard audit program) or asking them to conduct their own search. One hundred and two auditors participated in the study. The results show that auditors who inherit a correct hypothesis set and receive balanced evidence performed better than those who inherit a correct hypothesis set and did their own search, as well as those who inherited an incorrect hypothesis set and were provided a balanced evidence set. The former performance difference arose because auditors who conducted their own search were found to do repeated testing of non‐errors and truncated their search. This suggests that having a correct hypothesis set does not ensure that a balanced testing strategy is employed, which, in turn, diminishes part of the presumed benefits of a correct hypothesis set. The latter performance difference was attributable to auditors' failure to generate new hypotheses when they received evidence about a hypothesis that was not in the current hypothesis set. This demonstrates that balanced evidence does not fully compensate for having an initial incorrect hypothesis set. These findings suggest the need for firm training and/or decision aids to facilitate both a balanced information search and an iterative hypothesis generation process.     

广义有效资本市场:财务理论的新视野

以深市1998-2006年的349家A股上市公司为样本,实证检验了广义有效市场假说(GEMH)的财务管理理论。广义有效市场假说用价格的分形引子来表示风险资产的收益;并把风险的定义从收益的方差或标准差复原为资本的耗散程度,从而用耗散资产定价模型(DAPM)来替代资本资产定价模型(CAPM);用双β财务政策理论来替代MM理论;而市场效率可以用给定市场的资本效率吸引子与其均衡市场的资本效率吸引子之间的比率来进行评价。     

Learning and the Yield Curve

Two central implications of Expectations Hypothesis under rational expectations are inconsistent with yield curve data: (i) future expected long yields fall, instead of rising, when yield spread rises; (ii) long yields are excessively volatile relative to short yields. I propose an optimization framework in which boundedly rational agents use adaptive learning to form expectations. The belief structure rationalizes pattern of yields observed in the data so that the first puzzle does not arise with subjective expectations: intertemporal income and substitution effects are amplified relative to rational expectations. The second puzzle is partly accounted for by extra volatility due to parameter uncertainty.     

我国公司交叉上市行为研究

公司基于诸如融资需求、提高公司治理和管理水平、提升公司国际知名度和品牌价值等多种因素的考虑,纷纷进入国际或国内资本市场。而各大主要证券交易所出于自身利益的考虑,不断吸引优质潜在上市公司到海外上市,从而推动国内公司交叉上市。深入分析国内公司交叉上市的动因及现状,对我国潜在的交叉上市公司吸取历史经验和教训、进而提升这些企业的价值具有非常重要的现实意义。     

Margaret G. Reid: Life and achievements

Feminist critics of mainstream economics, and of the neoclassical paradigm in particular, have focused primarily on exposing and questioning the gender biases and androcentric claims to neutrality, objectivity and rationality of the most male-dominated discipline among the social sciences. The scientific method and mathematical sophistry so cherished in the discipline have also come under severe attack from several quarters. However, despite the intellectual ferment and some practical gains for women that these criticisms have engendered, even today the substantial contributions several women scholars have made to the field of economics are not well known or fully acknowledged. This paper traces and highlights Margaret Reid's contributions to the development of some core theories in economics. While several of her male colleagues whose work she had inspired or contributed to have been awarded the Nobel Prize, the discipline of economics still owes a huge debt to Reid and to several other women economists.     

Can voluntary environmental regulation promote corporate technological innovation?

The impact of environmental regulation on technological innovation has been widely discussed in the academic circle. Based on the panel data of 403 Chinese manufacturing firms from 2010 to 2015, this paper explored the role of voluntary environmental regulation in technological innovation. The results showed the following: First, both voluntary environmental information disclosure and environmental management system certification had a positive effect on corporate innovation investment. Second, compared with the impact of environmental information disclosure, the impact of environmental management system certification on corporate innovation investment was more significant. Third, there was a significant positive interaction between environmental information disclosure and environmental management system certification. Finally, the effect of voluntary environmental regulation on corporate technological innovation in heavily polluting industries was stronger than that in lightly polluting industries.     

A new approach for detecting shifts in forecast accuracy

Forecasts play a critical role at inflation-targeting central banks, such as the Bank of England. Breaks in the forecast performance of a model can potentially incur important policy costs. However, commonly-used statistical procedures implicitly place a lot of weight on type I errors (or false positives), which results in a relatively low power of the tests to identify forecast breakdowns in small samples. We develop a procedure which aims to capture the policy cost of missing a break. We use data-based rules to find the test size that optimally trades off the costs associated with false positives with those that can result from a break going undetected for too long. In so doing, we also explicitly study forecast errors as a multivariate system. The covariance between forecast errors for different series, although often overlooked in the forecasting literature, not only enables us to consider testing in a multivariate setting, but also increases the test power. As a result, we can tailor our choice of the critical values for each series not only to the in-sample properties of each series, but also to the way in which the series of forecast errors covary.