The rationality of irrationality in times of financial crises

Whilst there are many models discussing the mechanics of financial crises, the notion of predation seems to be insufficiently taken into consideration as one of the explanatory behavioral factors, although it would enrich the understanding of dysfunctional financial markets. This paper provides a stylized model for disruptive and toxic economic behaviors in the context of predatory markets like the subprime crisis of 2007–2009. In this context, we investigate why consumers and sellers buy products they know to be toxic. Conventional economic models contain classical tenets that assume that consumers are rational and search for utility maximization; however, these models cannot straightforwardly explain the behaviors consumers and sellers adopted during times of financial crises, known as “exuberantly irrational”. Hence, we use and expand on a predator-prey perspective that endeavors to capture such behaviors more effectively while showing that four market variables must be considered together over time – consumers, suppliers, toxic products and regulations. Our analysis shows that during the GFC, consumers and lenders as well as regulators embraced whole-heartedly, and contrary to common economic sense, the development and marketing of toxic products. Their behaviors were actually quite rational in the context of a poisoned market. Such observation could assist in drafting regulations.     

本世纪以来的西方经济增长理论

中国经济正处于动能转换的关键时期,需要来自增长理论研究的支持。21世纪以来,经济增长理论的研究取得了显著进步。本文旨在评述增长理论的最新发展,进一步梳理理论脉络和主流观点,为学术研究和经济实践提供参考。本文认为,经济增长理论已逐渐形成制度决定理论、结构转变理论和人口过渡理论三大主流观点。同时,本文指出了增长理论存在的不足。在总结现有文献贡献与不足的基础上,对未来研究方向进行了展望。     

Payday loans and consumer financial health

The annualized interest rate for a payday loan often exceeds 10 times that of a typical credit card, yet this market grew immensely in the 1990s and 2000s, elevating concerns about the risk payday loans pose to consumers and whether payday lenders target minority neighborhoods. This paper employs individual credit record data, and Census data on payday lender store locations, to assess these concerns. Taking advantage of several state law changes since 2006 and, following previous work, within-state-year differences in access arising from proximity to states that allow payday loans, I find little to no effect of payday loans on credit scores, new delinquencies, or the likelihood of overdrawing credit lines. The analysis also indicates that neighborhood racial composition has little influence on payday lender store locations conditional on income, wealth and demographic characteristics.     

Do women borrowers augment financial performance of MFIs?

There is some consensus that depth of outreach and financial performance of Microfinance Institutions (MFI) are positively correlated. A majority of microcredit borrowers are women and since the prevalence of female borrowers is even greater among the very poor, there should be a positive correlation between female borrowers and financial performance. Most of the MFIs target women as preferred borrowers. However, no study to date has investigated the relationship between targeting women and MFI’s sustainability with respect to profitability and yield. Utilizing a panel of 892 MFIs over a period of 10 years, this study shows that increased proportion of women borrowers has a statistically significant positive impact on yield and financial performance of MFIs. Consequently, this article also analyses the implication as to whether female borrowers have better repayment rate than male borrowers.     

经济学中的制度分析

针对制度分析在中国的理论发展和政策实践中的问题,本文在整理制度分析发展脉络的基础上,从经济学的本质特征去理解制度和制度分析方法,进而指出了新制度经济学的分析逻辑及其问题,在此基础上提出一个解决这些问题的思路。     

基金会信息公开监管制度的适应性——一个制度经济学视角的分析

依据制度经济学家对适应性的界定,对我国基金会信息公开监管制度的内部和外部适应性进行分析,发现:在内部适应性方面,基金会信息公开监管制度的整体配置具有合理性,但在信息公开的内容要求方面,相关制度安排之间呈现不一致性,制度安排中缺乏必要的救济机制,部分规定的操作性有待加强;在外部适应性方面,基金会信息公开监管制度中应该增加基金会向税务机关进行信息公开的安排,并且随着技术(特别是信息技术与会计技术)的进步,基金会信息公开监管制度可以对指定的媒体、基金会信息公开的时间、信息公开的方式、信息传递等行为规范作出适应性调整.为真正满足利益相关者的需求,基金会信息公开监管制度应该对基金会的注册会计师审计报告以及基金会登记管理机关的复审报告的公开作出安排.     

加快制度创新 促进高新技术产业发展

制度是实现技术创新的重要保障。加快高新技术产业发展必须加强制度创新,充分发挥政府在高新技术产业制度创新中的主导地位,加大高新技术产业的基础建设,营造良好的制度创新环境,推动高新技术产业快速发展。     

社交指数、风险倾向与创业

创业不仅是经济持续增长的动力,也是新常态下我国经济增长方式转变的重要源泉。从个人社交指数和风险倾向着手,分析其对个人创业的影响,同时考虑政府干预、市场成熟度和产权保护水平对社交指数和风险倾向与创业之间的调节作用,并将个人特质和区域因素作为控制变量纳入分析框架,运用CGSS 3年的数据进行实证分析。结果表明,个人社交指数对创业具有正向影响,个人风险倾向对创业的影响存在区域异质性。在农村地区,个人风险倾向对创业活动具有正向影响,即风险倾向越高,创业概率越大;而在城镇,个人风险倾向对创业的影响为负。在制度环境层面,政府干预和市场成熟度对创业具有负向影响,产权保护水平与创业之间存在“倒U型”关系,制度环境对社交指数与创业之间的关系具有调节作用,较高政府干预力度和较低市场成熟度使社交指数与创业负相关,而产权保护水平的调节作用则较弱;制度环境对风险倾向的调节作用较弱。     

制度环境对企业R&D投入的影响——基于我国上市公司的经验证据

如何通过外部制度的安排提高企业的技术创新能力,是制度变迁背景下我国企业面临的核心问题。以2004-2007年我国A股上市公司的R&D投入数据为研究样本,通过多元线性回归模型,实证检验了企业R&D投入与制度环境之间的关系。研究结果表明:市场化指数、法制环境指数、融资环境指数和产品市场环境指数与公司R&D投入水平显著正相关。好的外部制度环境可以促进公司加大R&D投入,进而提高技术创新能力。企业持续提高创新优势的源泉应包含较高的市场化程度、良好的法制和融资环境以及公平的产品市场环境。     

支付制度、医生的行为与药物经济学的应用

制度影响人们的行为选择,引发不同的效率结果。在医疗卫生市场中,不同的支付制度加上一些其他经济因素,使得追求收益最大化的医生具有不同的目标收益函数和行为选择。这些行为选择对社会而言可能具有效率,也可能无效率。通过比较不同支付制度下医生的行为选择及其是否符合效率准则,我们能够发现对药物经济学应用有利的一些制度因素。